Martin Necas is coming off a career-high 83 points last season, which is short of the 88 points that Mikko Rantanen tallied. Those 88 points were his fewest since the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season. Despite Necas’ scoring inconsistency and Rantanen’s consistency, this season is setting up as one where Necas can tally more points for the Colorado Avalanche than Rantanen will for the Dallas Stars.
The Colorado Avalanche system advantage
While Rantanen had the benefit of developing within the Avalanche’s run-and-gun system, Necas was limited within the Hurricanes’ defense-first identity. His lack of defensive prowess meant less ice time and lower deployment than other star wingers on the team like Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. The trade to the Avs means that Necas will, for the first time, have the opportunity to play for a team whose game plan aligns with his skillset.
Necas’ calling cards are his speed, his vision, and his playmaking ability. His shot is also very good and he is sneaky in finding space on the backdoor of the goal. These skills are a perfect match for Colorado’s game where the plan is to dominate puck possession, create in transition, and play with pace.
The MacKinnon and Makar effect
Then there is the matter of playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. While Rantanen still has high-end teammates on the Stars, the top two guys for the Avs are a cut above. There is a tangible benefit to playing on MacKinnon’s wing, of which Rantanen was the recipient for his many seasons in Colorado. Now Necas will be the beneficiary of that bump. MacKinnon is one of the few players on the team that can match Necas’ speed. The need to account for both of them will create more space in which they can operate. This matched skillset, increased ice time, and opportunities in which to create will lead to a lot of goals.
If playing alongside MacKinnon weren’t already enough of an advantage for Necas, having Makar frequently on the ice with him will give Necas an additional weapon with which to connect. Makar also has speed to share in rush chances created and his vision will make it easier to link up with Necas. This will be particularly true on the power play where they both have even more space in which to operate.
The contract year
As of the writing of this article, Martin Necas has not yet signed a contract extension with the Colorado Avalanche. Players are notorious for having career seasons when in the final year of their current contract. Necas has long desired to earn a contract that shows that he is one of the elite wingers in the league. Besting last season’s stats and setting a new career high would go a long way towards convincing the Avs to give him a very lucrative dollar amount (hopefully before) next summer.
The biggest hurdle Necas would have in out-producing Rantanen will be in the playoffs, where he has had less than stellar production. The key to this prediction is simply the expectation that the Avs will have a very deep playoff run this year, and that Necas outscoring Rantanen will be a matter of Necas playing many more postseason games. Obviously, many factors will have to tilt in Necas’ favor, but the stage is set for him to have a big year and to outperform Rantanen on the stats sheet.