The Colorado Avalanche may have gotten one of the biggest bargains in the NHL when they locked up Parker Kelly last summer.
Frank Seravalli certainly thinks so.
Writing about players who may regret signing their contracts before the NHL's salary explosion, Seravalli singled out Kelly in a recent Sportsnet column as perhaps the most evident example.
“Perhaps none more than Colorado’s Parker Kelly,” Seravalli wrote.
The Avalanche pounced on the opportunity to extend Kelly to a four-year deal on July 1, 2025. The $6.8 million deal seemed like a very reasonable bet on an undrafted guy who had seemingly found a home in Colorado.
It now looks almost ridiculous.
In the first year of the contract, Kelly went bonkers by scoring 21 goals and 35 points in a full 82-game slate last season. And as Seravalli underscored, Kelly shut down all doubt by scoring on Opening Night against the LA Kings.
Seravalli estimates Kelly could have commanded roughly $5 million per season had he waited until this offseason to test free agency.
“How much more would Kelly have earned had he played out the year and gone to market? The ballpark is $5 million per year, a far cry from the $6.8 million total signed for in 2025.”
Instead, Colorado has him for $1.7 million.
That's an enormous difference.
The Avalanche essentially bought themselves four years of cost certainty before the market had a chance to catch up with Kelly's value.
And that could have saved them from making a much more difficult decision.
The Avalanche Might Have Had to Trade Kelly Otherwise
Imagine the Avalanche allowing Kelly to play out the 2025-26 season without an extension.
He enters the summer coming off 21 goals, 35 points and another season in which he established himself as one of Colorado's most reliable defensive forwards.
Suddenly, his price isn't $1.7 million.
As Seravalli points out, it could have been around $5 million annually.
That's a completely different conversation for the Avalanche.
Colorado has plenty of expensive stars and important contracts already competing for cap space. Paying a fourth-line center $5 million per season would be difficult, regardless of how valuable Kelly had become.
The alternative could have been trading him.
And that's what makes the original contract look even better in hindsight.
Colorado didn't simply get a productive player for cheap. The Avalanche potentially prevented themselves from having to choose between overpaying Kelly and losing him.
Instead, they have him locked up through 2029-30 at a $1.7 million cap hit. The team announced the extension after Kelly's first season in Colorado, when he had recorded 19 points and 161 hits in 80 games.
Nobody could have guaranteed that Kelly would score 21 goals the following season.
But Colorado identified something.
The Avalanche saw a player who could handle difficult bottom-six tasks, while chipping in more offensively. That much became clear in his breakout last year. But if you think it’s been only him, you’ll be pleasantly surprised to know that Kelly himself has credited playing alongside Colorado's stars and learning from players such as Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog for helping his game develop.
The timing of the contract turned out to be perfect.
Seravalli estimates Kelly might have earned nearly three times as much on the open market.
Colorado will pay him $1.7 million.
That's not merely a good contract.
It's the kind of contract that can change what an NHL team is able to do with the rest of its roster.
And if Kelly continues scoring like he did last season, the Avalanche may have pulled off one of the biggest bargains in the league.
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