The Colorado Avalanche got an unexpected breakout season from Parker Kelly last year. His 21 goals in 82 games were certainly welcome, and raised the bar considerably for the 27-year-old.
That situation created lofty expectations for this season. However, Kelly hasn’t quite looked like a 20-goal scorer this season.
Through 12 games, Kelly has just one tally and five points. That’s a seven-goal pace over 84 games.
Under those circumstances, would it be fair to sound the warning alarms for Kelly?
Considering the way things have been going for the Colorado Avalanche, it would be fair to think so.
The Avalanche just haven't been getting as much depth scoring as they should. And that situation has put a little added pressure on the bottom six. In Kelly’s particular case, the pressure should only begin to mount.
If Sunday night was any indication, calls for Colorado’s top six to step up should only increase. Kelly hit the ice for 12:35 across 16 shifts. He did not have a shot on goal, but did his best to try and spark the club. Kelly got into a second-period bout with Jayden Struble, hoping to light a fire under his team.
Evidently, that didn’t work.
But is that what Kelly is going to be reduced to this season? If history serves as any indication, it might just be.
Parker Kelly likely regressing back to the mean
While historical trend is no guarantee of future performance, there’s a lot to be said about regressing back to the mean.
Prior to last season, the most Kelly had ever scored was eight goals in a season. And guess what, that’s the pace that Kelly is on this season.
So, does that mean that scoring, say, 10 goals this year would be a failure for Kelly?
Hardly. The reality is that Parker Kelly is in a situation in which he’s playing the role that he typically plays. Last season, it seems, was an outlier that some depth players tend to have. They have one amazing career year, and then settle back into their usual career numbers.
If that’s the case, Avalanche fans shouldn’t be disappointed about Kelly.
Nevertheless, the Avalanche expect more from him now that they know what he’s capable of. And if Kelly continues to struggle to score, the club may need to find answers for his lack of offensive contributions.
The situation is not alarming as we speak. But it will become more concerning the longer Kelly goes without finding the score sheet.
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