The Colorado Avalanche have seen one of their strengths turn into a bit of a liability. Of course, we’re talking about defense.
We’ve all seen the costly gaffes that have happened at various times this season. There have been some egregious giveaways and just some bad luck, such as the Cale Makar goal that bounced off his stick and into the net.
But the underlying numbers tell far more than the eye test. In particular, one of the guys that was supposed to be a shutdown blueliner hasn’t quite lived up to that billing.
We’re talking about Brett Kulak.
Kulak signed a big offseason contract this past summer, with the organization hoping that he would anchor the shutdown pairing. And even though he moved up last game with Cale Makar, the fact is that his overall performance this season has been a little iffy, to say the least.
When looking at his metrics, you can see a subpar Corsi, coming in at 47%. In other words, the Avalanche are spending far more time in their own zone when Kulak is on the ice than when he’s not. Now, that’s not an indictment of Kulak alone. There are four other guys skating with him who also have a role to play. But when you look at Makar with a 60% Corsi, Devon Toews at 54% and Sam Malinski at 52%, it makes you think just how much Kulak is holding back his defensive partner.
That said, Kulak has accounted for -8.4% fewer expected goals. In other words, the Avs score more when he’s not on the ice than when he’s on. You could argue that’s just a function of his role as a defensive defenseman. But it’s also worth pointing out that Kulak is third on the Avalanche’s blue line with 322 minutes.
So, does that mean that Jared Bednar is just relying on Kulak too much? Should someone else move up in his spot instead?
Well, seeing Kulak move up with Makar is exactly the opposite of that assertion.
Kulak is not the only Avalanche defenseman struggling to defend
The fact is that Bednar has had to lean on Kulak quite a bit, considering that other blueliners, in particular Josh Manson, haven’t exactly been the most reliable.
Manson racked up a 44% Corsi before going down with an injury a couple of weeks ago. In that span, Manson registered a -11% of relative expected goals.
Brent Burns has put up even worse numbers, showing a -13.9% expected goals rating.
And so, that paints a picture that explains why Kulak might not have been as reliable as the Avalanche might have hoped. The fact that Kulak has averaged just under 20 minutes a night shows that Colorado hasn’t been able to get what they’ve wanted out of their bottom three defensemen.
Moving forward, the Avalanche may need to ask some tough questions about their defensive corps.
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