The Colorado Avalanche have two of the NHL’s top players. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, MVP-caliber players by any measure, are the embodiment of what it means to build a robust prospect pipeline.
But that was eons ago.
Fast forward to today, and the Avalanche have one of the most depleted prospect pipelines in the NHL. That much was evident in Scott Wheeler’s list of the NHL’s top 150 prospects published in The Athletic.
The Avalanche did not register a single player on the list. And it wasn’t because Colorado doesn’t have any good prospects. They do. The organization has some solid future NHLers. The problem is that none of them have “MacKinnon” or “Makar” written on them.
To be fair, MacKinnon was the first-overall selection in the 2013 NHL Draft. Makar, for his part, was fourth overall in 2017.
In fact, the last time the Avalanche picked that high was in 2019. And that was only because Colorado got that pick from the Ottawa Senators in the Matt Duchene deal.
Anyhow, Makar was the last top-10 own pick the Avalanche have made. That was about a decade ago. That fact also explains why the Avs are devoid of high-end talent. Of course, it doesn’t help that the team has traded away just about every first-round pick it’s had in order to load up on talent.
And so, that situation paints a bit of a bleak outlook for the Avalanche. Unless the club can somehow replenish its prospect pipeline with elite-level talent, the only real way out is to continue making savvy moves with the capital the team has.
Avalanche will have to rebuild at some point
Unfortunately, MacKinnon and Makar are not eternal. Gabe Landeskog is getting a bit long in the tooth, while the overall cast of supporting characters could begin to age out in the next few seasons.
That situation means that the Avalanche will have to rebuild at some point. That situation could resemble what the Avs went through in the 2010s.
While something like that wouldn’t exactly be new to Avalanche fans, the question would be: When could that rebuild happen?
Well, as long as MacKinnon and Makar remain elite, Colorado could find a way to remain competitive. In the worst of cases, two elite pieces could keep the Avs in the mushy middle, even if the rest of the team is subpar.
That’s why a potential timeline for a full-on rebuild could be somewhere in the mid-2030s. Specifically, somewhere around 2034. MacKinnon’s contract will be up in 2031 when he’s 35. Let’s assume he’s still Sidney Crosby-good at that point, and he extends for another four or five seasons. Martin Necas, meanwhile, will be up in 2034. Makar will be a UFA in 2035.
That’s the timeline where the Avalanche could be looking at the possibility of tearing everything down and starting over. Such a situation could mean four or five seasons, or even more, of lost years while the club accrues talent.
But there is one thing to keep in mind. The Detroit Red Wings were once the NHL’s best team, keeping a playoff streak of roughly three decades.
Could that be the Avalanche’s ultimate fate? It just might if the team can continue finding gems in places where others may not have looked.
Perhaps another trade like the Matt Duchene deal could lead to a pick like Bowen Byram in 2019.
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