As the Colorado Avalanche get set to open the 2026-2027 regular season, there are lots of high expectations surrounding the perennial Stanley Cup contender. As each of their accomplishments are projected by the fans and pundits alike, here are six bold predictions that are based on what they can achieve on the stats sheet.
Martin Nečas has a lower shooting percentage, but scores a career-high in goals
Martin Nečas set a career-high shooting percentage of 18.45% last season, which beat his previous high of 17.98% in the 2020-21 season. That level of success resulted in 38 goals last year. Despite playing with Nathan MacKinnon, it is realistic to expect that number to regress a bit this season. However, playing alongside MacKinnon will continue to rub off on him and he will commit himself to shooting the puck more. As a result of this increased shot volume, Nečas will achieve the first 40-goal season of his career.
Gabriel Landeskog doubles his points total from last season
After logging his first full season back in action after major knee surgery, the captain is poised to have another strong campaign, much of which will be spent playing alongside MacKinnon and Nečas both at 5v5 and on the power play. With that deployment and increased confidence, he is poised to soar past last season’s total of 35 points, which was tied for eighth on the team with Parker Kelly and Brent Burns. A healthy season will see him trail only MacKinnon, Nečas, and Makar in total points where he surpasses 70 points for the first time since 2018-19.
MacKinnon leads the team in faceoff percentage
Of all the players who took over 100 faceoffs on the team last season, only faceoff ace Jack Drury and left-handed fill-in Landeskog had a better overall percentage than MacKinnon last season. With Drury traded, MacKinnon will be poised to achieve back-to-back seasons of a 50%+ win rate on the draws that he takes. His continued dedication to winning those matchups and advantageous situations Coach Jared Bednar puts him in will result in continued growth and the best faceoff results on the team.
Brent Burns and Josh Manson are a top-5 Corsi defensive pair in the league
The Colorado Avalanche are built to be a strong Corsi possession team, which plays right into the playstyle of the Manson-Burns pairing. Right-handed Manson was a revelation for the team playing on his offside alongside Burns last season. Last season, they were 15th in Corsi For percentage among the 191 defensive pairs that logged over 200 minutes together at 56.87%.
Due to injuries on the blue line, the duo often had to take on a greater quantity and quality of minutes than they ideally should be logging at 5v5. With more favorable matchups that they will get on the Avs third pair, expect both of them to be even more assertive in transitioning the puck up ice and jumping into plays in the offensive zone, both of which will increase an already dominant puck possession number into one of the best in the whole NHL.
Avs have the best combined special teams
Special teams success is often judged by the combined value of the power play and penalty kill percentages. Anything around 100 is considered good and above 105 is excellent. The Avs‘ superb penalty kill of 84.6% combined with their anemic power play of 17.1% left them with an overall decent special teams success of 101.7%. That value was 11th overall in the league. This season, with continued strong results on the penalty kill and a bounce-back effort on the power play, the Avs will leapfrog to the front of the pack with a combined special teams rate of over 108%.
Mackenzie Blackwood takes Scott Wedgewood’s GSAA/60 crown
Last season, among the 71 goalies with over 600 minutes played, Wedgewood had the best goals saved above average in the league last season with a 0.66 per 60 value. Not only will he not repeat that career-best feat, but his tandem mate in Blackwood is going to supplant him. After a season full of stops and starts, Blackwood is poised to reassert himself in the Avs‘ crease. Consistency combined with the benefits of his big frame, athleticism, and playing within the Avs‘ system will catapult him from his 23rd-ranked .20 GSAA/60 up to #1 in the league. And Wedgewood will still be top-10 as he rides shotgun with Blackwood throughout the season.
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