The Colorado Avalanche have a lot to figure out as November rolls in.
After an uneven start to the season, Colorado has won consecutive games for the first time since opening night, including Saturday's 5-2 victory over the Calgary Flames.
There are reasons to feel better about the direction of the team. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar continue to drive the offense. Artturi Lehkonen is producing consistently, while Mackenzie Blackwood has provided some important stability in goal.
But November could tell us quite a bit more about what this Avalanche team is capable of accomplishing.
There are three storylines in particular worth keeping an eye on.
A busy schedule will test Avalanche consistency
Colorado opens November with a demanding stretch, including road games against Chicago on November 2 and Columbus on November 3. The Avalanche then return home for matchups against Nashville on November 5 and Detroit on November 7.
That is an important early test.
The back-to-back against the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets will challenge Colorado's ability to manage its energy and get consistent performances from its lineup. The games against Nashville and Detroit should be particularly interesting, especially with both teams having enough talent to punish mistakes.
The schedule gets even more intriguing when Colorado heads east.
The Avalanche visit Toronto on November 10, Ottawa on November 12 and Montreal on November 14. They also face Montreal again at Ball Arena on November 25.
Those games will offer a useful measuring stick against some of the Eastern Conference's more competitive teams. Colorado needs to start putting together longer stretches of consistent hockey, and November offers plenty of opportunities to do exactly that.
Josh Manson's absence could create a bigger defensive problem
This might be the most important storyline of the month.
Josh Manson is expected to miss approximately eight weeks with an ankle injury, leaving the Avalanche devoid of one of their most physical and experienced defensemen. He leads Colorado in hits and provides a level of defensive responsibility that is difficult to replace.
Noah Juulsen is expected to receive a more regular role, while Brett Kulak could also become increasingly important as the coaching staff adjusts its defensive pairings.
The question is whether Colorado can absorb the loss without putting too much pressure on Cale Makar and Devon Toews.
Manson's absence is not simply about replacing his minutes. It is about losing a defenseman who can handle difficult assignments, play physically and give the rest of the blue line some breathing room.
If Juulsen and the other depth options can keep things relatively stable, the Avalanche should be able to navigate this stretch. If not, defensive depth could become a much bigger conversation as the trade market develops.
The Canadiens matchups could reveal something about Colorado
The two games against Montreal deserve special attention.
The Avalanche visit the Canadiens on November 14 before hosting them again on November 25. Those matchups could be particularly interesting given Montreal's recent five-game winning streak, achieved while playing without captain Nick Suzuki.
The Canadiens have shown that their supporting cast can handle increased responsibility, while young players and veterans have helped keep the team competitive.
For Colorado, these games offer an opportunity to measure itself against a team that is finding ways to win despite some significant challenges.
They could also provide an interesting look at how the Avalanche match up against a deep, increasingly confident opponent.
Ultimately, it’s still relatively early in the season. However, historical data has shown that teams in a playoff spot by Thanksgiving make the postseason 75% of the time. Sure, there are exceptions, but the Thanksgiving signpost has become the de facto measuring stick for most teams.
There really isn’t much doubt about the Avalanche’s chances of making the postseason. Nevertheless, the team will need to establish itself now, showing a more consistent approach, if the club is to truly secure a playoff spot in what has become a highly contested Central Division.
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