Colorado Avalanche: What Sending Tyson Jost to the AHL Means

The Colorado Avalanche have sent top-10 draft pick Tyson Jost to the AHL, which might have unforeseen consequences for the team.

Colorado Avalanche top-10 draft pick Tyson Jost is a bust at 20 years old, right? Look at some of the comments Avs fans make about Jost, and that seems to be the consensus. That and the fact that he’s personally responsible for the team’s recent skid.

That’s a lot to lay on a kid just seven months removed from being a teenager.

When I heard the news that Jost had been sent down to the AHL, this was my response:

In other words, I went straight past Patrick Roy‘s head explosion gif to guttural primal shriek. I was that angry.

I have since calmed down. Believe it or not, I can even see some of the positives in the move. However, I also think this demotion — and make no mistake, it’s a demotion — should have never become necessary.

In fact, I think it’s a desperate attempt to hide some failings that have nothing to do with Jost. And that is what we should be worried about here in the Avs fandom.

Insider tip: Get all the way to the last slide to see what the future of Colorado Avalanche coaching may be.

Tyson Jost Scouting Report

The Colorado Avalanche selected Tyson Jost in the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft. At the time, NHL’s Central Scouting had him ranked #16 for North American skaters. However, other professional scouts ranked him between #9 to #13.

When the Avalanche chose him 10th-overall in the draft, Colorado’s director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple described Jost’s skill set thus:

“He’s a Matt Duchene-type player. Offensive abilities, makes players better, good passer, sees the ice very well.”

Hepple went on to describe some of Jost’s tenacity, the fact that he’s not easily intimidated despite his relatively small stature. Hepple described Jost’s play as featuring “a lot of heart,” but also added that his “skill level is over the top.”

Hepple wasn’t exactly inventing the wheel with his Jost scouting report. Elite Prospects called Tyson a “crafty goal scorer who carries out plays as quickly as he envisions them.” EP’s professional scout, Curtis Joe, further praised Jost’s energy and speed, both on the ice and in his though processing. What’s more, Joe also remarked on Jost’s “determination to win battles in the tough areas.”

Future Considerations had glowing praise for Jost which included phrases such as the following:

• strong, dynamic center
• extremely smart offensive weapon
• relentless on the forecheck
• a real pain for opposing players

Some other descriptions from FC include the observation that he loves to drive to the net and isn’t afraid to get into the dirty areas. The site added:

“He loves to make the give-and-go play, working with the space provided and moving the puck quickly…Jost has a laser-beam for a wrist shot and he can score from a distance off the rush.Defensively, Jost consistently drives down low into his own zone, picks up his man and plays him tight. He has a great stick-lifting ability while chasing down opponents and creating turnovers.”

Ben Kerr of Last Word on Sports wasn’t exactly low on Jost either. He echoed a lot of the same praise and included specific observations about his stick handling and hands in general:

Tyson Jost has great hands, and the ability to stickhandle in a phone booth. He also has a very quick release on his shot, which helps him to fool goalies.

Kerr also praised his skating:

“Tyson Jost is an excellent skater. He is shifty with good acceleration, agility and edgework. Jost has the ability to fool defenders with his ability to quickly change directions as wells his ability to change speeds.”

If you’re thinking that’s all based on pre-draft observations, here’s how Sports Forecaster describes him at the NHL level:

“Is an excellent skater with a strong penchant for producing offense. Can play either center or wing. Provides excellent energy and is able to make plays at a high speed… Talented, speedy and versatile forward with upside.

My favorite scouting report of Jost’s NHL play still comes from Ryan Clark at The Athletic:

“Jost’s highlight tape gives the appearance that he is a smooth-skating, puck-handler with a penchant for frustrating defenses, annoying goaltenders and using the right amount of flair to make it all work.”

Wow! Where is that player?

He was right here in Denver. Now, he’s up in Loveland. Let’s take a quick perusal of how he got there.

Tyson Jost Statistics

Tyson Jost has 38 points (19 goals, 19 assists) in 114 NHL games with the Colorado Avalanche. This season, he has 15 points (6 goals, 9 assists) in 43 games.

For comparison purposes, roommate and fellow sophomore Alexander Kerfoot has 24 points (7 goals, 17 assists) in 43 games. Sometime linemate Colin Wilson has 14 points (8 goals, 6 assists) in 38 games. In case you’re wondering, sometime linemate Sven Andrighetto has 6 points (3 goals, 3 assists) in 29 games. Those totals amount to the following point-per-game production:

• Jost: .34
• Kerfoot: .55
• Wilson: .36
• Andrighetto: .20

As you can see, Jost is middling — and that’s without considering the Gabriel Bourques of the team. However, I will admit Jost’s points production isn’t good enough — but then, no one who’s not on the top line or named Tyson Barrie has been giving adequate offensive production.

However, I will, indeed, concede that Jost hasn’t been living up to top-10 draft potential.

When you start looking at his fancy stats… things get a little murkier. Concerning Offensive Points Share, which is “an estimate of the number of points contributed by a player due to his offense,” Jost is #9 on the team with 0.5. For Defensive Points Share (defense-oriented points contributions), Jost falls to #14 on the team with 0.3. Straight Points Shares drops him to #17 with 0.8.

Not great, but still not the worst on the team.

CorsiFor, Tyson Jost drops. He’s at 47.3%. His Relative Corsi is at -4.5.

Not good, but still not the worst on the team.

However, many Avs fans — and perhaps the front offices themselves — use those statistics as rationale for demoting him to the AHL.

Other Rationale for Demoting Jost

When you peruse Twitter concerning the Tyson Jost demotion, you get some, well, 💩:

However, a lot of fans on Twitter are a little more sensible about why the Jost demotion might be good for him. Mostly, it has to do with his development — people seem to think having success in the AHL will give Tyson confidence that he can translate to the NHL. I mean,

these

were his statistics prior to turning pro:

In case the above table is wonky, as it sometimes is, the highlights of his stats include the following:

• 86 points in 43 games followed by 109 in 33 at Bantam level
• 45 points in 46 games followed by 104 points in 48 games at BCHL level
• 15 points in 7 games at Canada U-18 (busted Conor McDavid’s record)
• 35 points in 33 games at University of North Dakota

Seems like some confidence-boosting at lower levels already happened, but I’m going to get to the player development in a moment.

One of the best-argued tweets concerning the Jost demotion came from Jesse Montano at BSN Avalanche:

Montano’s aguments are well-argued, and I’ll get to them in the next slide.

Not all Avs fans on Twitter are delighted:

However, in case you think I’m informing all my opinions from Twitter, let’s see what other sports reporters and fellow bloggers have to say.

From Evan Rawal of Mile High Sports:

“The organization has decided to take a longer-term approach with the development of Tyson Jost by demoting him to the AHL Colorado Eagles …If the Avs are really looking to revitalize Jost and get something from him in the long term, it would be best for them to leave him in the AHL the rest of the year so that he can develop some confidence, and bring that confidence back to the NHL next season. This shouldn’t be seen as giving up on Jost, but as the Avs trying to get the most out of him, and in order for that to happen, they need to commit to his long-term development.”

That word, development, again. Here it comes from Mile High Hockey:

“Jost hasn’t been able to show the development you want from a player with his pedigree.”

And here the idea comes in a different form from Avs insider Adrian Dater:

“The Avs are hoping he can get some confidence back in his game at the AHL level, then maybe come back later in the season to be a regular contributor.”

Our own Callie Agnew used the word development, too:

“Let the AHL develop his game further then the NHL has. The AHL is full of young players like Tyson trying to make the big team.”

What’s interesting is that Ryan Clark of The Athletic doesn’t focus so much on development. Instead, he brings up another strain — coach Jared Bednar may have seen himself as limited because of some of the other players on the team. Bednar tried Jost up and down the lineup, and the 20-year-old didn’t click immediately in any spot.

I will be focusing on that momentarily.

But first — the development of Tyson Jost.

Need for Player Development — My Thoughts

Tyson Jost has not been adequately developed at the NHL level. I’ve already said that in previous posts. I’m going to go into that argument again.

Resolved: A player is responsible for his own work. He must show up to practices and focus on everything the coaching staff instructs him to do. He must show up to meetings and film review and take notes.

The player is also responsible for a lot of his off-ice workouts as well as his own continued development in terms of evaluating his own play and tending to his nutritional needs. During the off-season, he must keep himself in peak shape while also focusing on whatever individual assignments he’s been given in the off-season.

An NHL player is expected to show up to games on time and with the proper preparation to play his best game. He must implement both his individual instruction and the team play as a whole.

Colorado Avalanche

Players must start with elite raw talent. However, a lot of background goes into player development before he ever gets drafted, much less steps foot on NHL ice. Even once he’s drafted, he must be developed in his formative years. For some players, that’s at the NHL level. Other players may take different routes.

For Tyson Jost, his post-draft development came as a stint in the prestigious University of North Dakota Men’s Ice Hockey program. They’ve won the NCAA tournament eight times (as recently as 2016), made the Frozen Four 22 times (as recently as 2016), and made a total of 32 appearances in the NCAA Tournament.

NoDak is an elite NCAA development route. Said program has turned out elite NHLers such as Jonathan Toews, TJ Oshie and Zach Parise — yes, it hurts me to call the latter “elite,” but it’s also true.

The Colorado Avalanche lured Jost — word attributed to Rawal at Mile High Sports — out of this prestigious development program. Jost had to look at his own stats at previous levels and know he was likely to have another breakout season, this time with NoDak. But he followed his NHL team’s advice because, hey, that’s the dream, right?

I have to think the Avalanche promised they’d continue his development. Indeed, as Montano observed, they plopped him right into the lineup. The next two years, he made the team out of camp. And the next two years, they put his development on the backburner — Montano’s words — as they chased the will-o’-the-wisp playoffs.

And now, here we are. Apparently the Avalanche are going to commit to developing Tyson Jost, but that looks like his playing in the AHL. As much as I loved watching Jost develop as a (personable) young man last season, I wish they’d left him at NoDak if they weren’t going to bother with his career.

Last season, when the team was sharing their AHL affiliate with the St. Louis Blues, I don’t think sending him to the AHL would have been all that beneficial. This year… it just might be. However, they went about it all wrong.

They should have done what they did last season — send him on a “conditioning stint” after he came back from injury. Instead, this season, they wait until the entire team is imploding then “demote” him as if it’s all his fault. Because, yes, that’s how you instill confidence.

Take a look back at Jost’s scouting report. When you fail a player with those talents… that’s a gigantic red flag.

The only silver lining is that I have more confidence in the Colorado Eagles coaching staff — specifically the head coach — than I do in the Colorado Avalanche coaching staff — ditto the head coach thing.

Let’s focus on that for a moment.

Greg Cronin’s Tryout

Greg Cronin is the Colorado Eagles’ head coach. He has been coaching consistently since 1987. Besides the Eagles, he’s been head coach in the following situations:

• 1995-96: University of Maine
• 2003-2005: Bridegeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
• 2005-2011: Northeastern University (NCAA)

He has extensive assistant coaching experience, including at the University of Maine (1988-1990, 1993-95), Colorado College (1990-93), US NTDP U-18 (1997-98). Oh, and at the NHL level:

• New York Islanders (1998-2003, 2014-18)
• Toronto Maple Leafs (2011-14)

That resume tells me two things. One, he knows how to develop players at every level. He did so in the NCAA, AHL and NHL levels. Two, he has more NHL experience than Bednar — granted as an assistant, but I think that’s a preferable route anyway.

As the seat gets hot under Bednar, Joe Sakic may very well be casting about for his replacement. Yes, Joel Quenneville is available. To be honest, though, I could see Sakic promoting from within.

And part of Sakic’s evaluation may be based on how well Cronin does with Jost. I know, that sounds far-fetched. However, Sakic has ever been a quiet one, and you know what they say about still waters.

Ultimately, I hate the Tyson Jost demotion, and I blame Jared Bednar for failing the young forward. That said, I do want what’s best for the 20-year-old. And to get back to the very first sentence — calling Jost a bust at this stage is ridiculous.

Calling Bednar a bust? I think we’re heading down that road, Avs Nation.