Colorado Avalanche: Early Season Evaluation and Pressure for Tyson Jost

The efficacy, ceiling, and even role of Colorado Avalanche sophomore center Tyson Jost is being questioned. Here is an in-depth look into those very areas.

Colorado Avalanche center Tyson Jost is a bust, or that’s what some Avs fans and pundits seem to believe. Boy, I’d think being a 20-year-old bust would be impossible in any profession except teen modeling, and there’s probably some leeway there, too.

I’m going to throw a hot take out there: Tyson Jost is not a bust. Nor is he on pace to be one.

The Colorado Avalanche selected Tyson Jost in the 2016 NHL Draft with their #10 pick. Jost already had an impressive resume at the lower levels.

Highlights include earning 86 points 39 goals, 47 assists) in 43 games then 109 points (56 goals, 53 assists) in 33 games with the Pursuit if Excellence Bantam Prep, which is the highest caliber of minor hockey.

Jost followed a similar trajectory in the BCHL with the Pentiction Vees, earning first 45 points (23 goals, 22 assists) in 46 games then 104 points (42 goals, 62 assists) in 48 games.

Side note: As the Globe and Mail points out, playing Junior A followed by NCAA (collegiate) hockey is a trending pathway to the NHL these days.

Tyson Jost was already committed to the University of North Dakota when the Avalanche drafted him. He stayed just one year with NoDak, recording 35 points (16 goals, 19 assists) in 33 games as a freshman. Would Jost have continued his trajectory, making a big jump in points between his first and second year at a given level? We will never know because he turned pro after just one season in the NCAA.

More on that question later. For now, though, let’s look at some semi-formal discussions about Jost.

MHS Roundtable on Tyson Jost

These rumblings about Tyson Jost were already starting more than a week ago when the season was extremely young. So, I tossed out the question to my fellow Mile High Sticking contributors.

Here’s what Crystal had to say:

“While Josty has improved a great deal, I feel there is another level to him we haven’t seen yet. And unfortunately we won’t if someone doesn’t take him under his wing, give him some much needed guidance, and push him a little more toward the net. This is one thing being on a line with [Colin Wilson]. He’s giving him that one on one leadership he needs.”

“Much-needed guidance” is definitely a theme in Jost’s development.

Callie agrees:

“I think all the guys that are in their sophomore years need guidance and have another level they need to find. That’s just part of being new in the NHL.”

That idea of guidance is something I go into at greater detail in the final slide. However, I will point out here that many of the previous Avs youngsters have had specific older players who looked out for him both on and off the ice. Jost just had fellow rookie JT Compher, who probably needed his own guidance.

In an Avs 360 interview , Altitude TV personality Lauren Gardner joked about the guys living in a “frat house.” However there’s a reason other teens, like MacK and even Duchene and O’Reilly back in the day, lived with vets. Said vets could help them figure out how to navigate the new world of being a well-paid athlete with specific obligations and responsibilities.

Jost didn’t get that. Neither did Compher or Alexander Kerfoot. I don’t think Kerfoot or Compher needed as much guidance since they were already in their 20s. I feel like Girard somewhat got that guidance from Erik Johnson. But I’ve felt since last season that, with all the rookies on the team, Jost got left behind.

Callie agrees:

“Josty is getting lost in the mix and seems to be the forgotten player. At the beginning of camp he was slotted into a center spot because they wanted to develop him, but once the season started the development went to the wayside and he has been dropped. “In practice the lines were changed and he was the player moved. Glad the lines moved back for the game but I wonder how much of that was due to JT Compher’s injury and less to do with consistency and development. Everyone knows I am a big Compher fan and pusher, but I don’t think he needs the same guidance and development as Jost does.”

I agree. Look at how the Colorado Avalanche are babying along Vladislav Kamenev, giving him both sheltered and meaningful minutes. Jost just got tossed into the mix with a sink-or-swim mentality.

Tyson Jost’s Abilities

Tyson Jost was the last player who got “picked” by Patrick Roy. That’s significant not because of my noted Roy obsession, but because of what happened in the summer of 2016 — the Colorado Avalanche completely transitioned their style of hockey. They took a left turn at size and became a speedy, puck-moving team.

That transition relates to Jost because he was the first player the team drafted in the new mold. Here is how he was scouted by The Draft Analyst:

“Jost is a shark, appearing out of nowhere with speed and tenacity to ruin the breakout play a coach worked on for weeks. Once the puck is on his stick is where his artistry comes to the forefront, as he protects it with his head up while travelling at a high rate of speed before shifting down a gear, curling and weaving in and around the offensive zone for as long as he has to.”

I find it interesting that this professional scout specifically notes Jost’s speed and skating skill. What’s more, the scout describes Jost’s role as a “three-zone center with decent size who will not necessarily avoid physical play, and he’s shown to control the puck while taking a beating.”

That’s the style I’ve seen from Tyson from Day 1. One of the first things I noticed was his forechecking on a team (the 2016-17 Avs) that was not forechecking, or backchecking, or doing anything other than checking out.

Ben Kerr of The Last Word on Sports concurs with the scouting of Jost’s skating ability:

“Tyson Jost is an excellent skater. He is shifty with good acceleration, agility and edgework…Jost has very good top end speed, and when he does get past a defender he can drive to the front of the net.”

My favorite scouting report of Jost comes from Ryan Clark of The Athletic:

“Jost’s highlight tape gives the appearance that he is a smooth-skating, puck-handler with a penchant for frustrating defenses, annoying goaltenders and using the right amount of flair to make it all work.”

In fact, Clark’s article goes into great depth about Jost with a lot of observations from his UND coach, Brad Berry. Some of the characteristics that Berry observed were his habit of studying fellow centers to gain an advantage over them in the faceoff as well as his play away from the puck — essentially his tenacity. That last is something I’ve always observed in Tyson.

Of course, all of this translates into what Anthrax Jones calls Jost’s “Swiss army knife” of abilities.

How does this translate to Jost’s ceiling, though? Well, I’m going to contrast three videos. The first is Tyson’s highlight reel from his time at NoDak:

Next is a breakaway goal from last season:

And here is Jost’s goal from this season:

You know what I especially notice as a big difference from all those plays in NoDak to his plays here? Confidence. At UND, even as a freshman, Jost is buzzing with the confidence that he can be a difference-maker.

I don’t see that in his two Colorado Avalanche goals. And that has nothing to do with his actual abilities. It has to do with his head space. Here is an area where I think the Avalanche have let Tyson Jost down.

Tyson Jost and Mentorship

More from Mile High Sticking

• Could Colorado Avalanche move on from Pavel Francouz next offseason?
• 4 goalies to replace Pavel Francouz if he has to miss time
• Colorado Avalanche make sneaky signing with Tatar
• Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog could return in 2023-24 playoffs
• Colorado Avalanche rookie face-off tournament roster

So, I’d like to get back to how Tyson Jost historically adjusts to playing at a new, higher level. It almost seems like he takes the first year to feel out the level — while still operating at around a point-a-game pace. Once he’s got the new level figured out, he explodes. That happened at the  Bantam Prep level and again at the BCHL level. We don’t know if that was going to hold true in college, but he had the same kind of start.

This is the NHL, though, the best hockey league in the world. And it’s also one where a player of Tyson Jost’s caliber should expect to play at least 10 years.

Yet Jost is not on a similar trajectory at the NHL level. He earned just 22 points (12 goals, 10 assists) in 65 games last season. (That’s the most games he’s ever played in the regular season at any level.) He’s got just two points (1 goal, 1 assist) in eight games this season.

So, is the decreased adjustment just a learning curve for the elitest hockey league? I’m sure that’s a factor. However, I’m also going to throw out there that the Avalanche are not developing him the way they should — indeed, the way they probably promised when they induced him to leave the prestigious UND hockey program to turn pro. (Notable alums include Matt Greene, Zach Parise and Jonathan Toews.)

Last season, the Avalanche suited up around four rookies on any given night and had one or two more waiting in the wings every game. Some of these rookies, like Jost himself and the ill-fated Andrei Mironov, were Avs draftees. They also had traded-for players, J.T. Compher and Samuel Girard, as well as signed free agents, Alexander Kerfoot and Dominic Toninato.

Every single one of those rookies was somewhere unique in their development spectrum as well as their expected role. All of them were fighting for roster spots and/or ice time. Some of them were older and had more experience so were able to find their way a little more easily. Some struggled or even washed out.

One, Sam Girard, exceeded all expectations. However, he was the only defenseman who regularly made the roster, and he had a lot of leadership to feed off of. The other was Tyson Jost, one of a revolving cast of forward rookies who had the added struggle of getting injured twice early in the year.

So now, putting trajectory aside, let’s get back to that idea of confidence. Here’s a tweet that really summarizes what’s going on:

Since almost the beginning I’ve been saying Jost is Matt Duchene all over again, and here is a perfect example. Duchene has ever been a player who gets into his own head. I think in a different way, so is Jost. I was really shocked at the difference in his playing style between his NoDak days and current Avalanche play.

It’s not that Tyson Jost doesn’t have the skills, or that he’s trying those plays and failing. It’s that he’s simplified his hockey. On a team that’s notorious for getting too fancy, such simplification isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, in Tyson’s case, I think it’s a little bit of under-confidence.

More from Mile High Sticking

• Could Colorado Avalanche move on from Pavel Francouz next offseason?
• 4 goalies to replace Pavel Francouz if he has to miss time
• Colorado Avalanche make sneaky signing with Tatar
• Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog could return in 2023-24 playoffs
• Colorado Avalanche rookie face-off tournament roster

And here’s where mentorship comes into play. I understand that players take it upon themselves to mentor youngsters. Duchene was always volunteering to help out the young guys, maybe because he himself had mentorship in his early days.

However, the team also steps in sometimes. For example, coach Jared Bednar has been transparent about the fact that his pairing of Erik Johson with Sam Girard is so the former can mentor the latter.

One hopes that was the rationale for putting Colin Wilson on a line with Tyson Jost. However, lo and behold who else is on that line but another sophomore, Alexander Kerfoot.

Here is where I point a finger at Nathan MacKinnon. Nate has also been the recipient of mentorship. Indeed, he had two future Hall of Famers — Jarome Iginla and Sidney Crosby — help develop him into the player he is today.

It’s time for MacKinnon to give back, and no better recipient than Jost.

It’s the little things that MacKinnon can teach Tyson. Things like using your skating to create space. Or not letting a bad game get to you. Or handling the pressure of media and fans and just the general hullaballoo of being a well-paid professional athlete at the tender age of 20.

MORE ABOUT TYSON JOST:

• Jost Gets (Sort of) Serious
• 3 Fantastic Videos about Jost
• Jost’s 1st Multi-Goal Game
• Jost Loves Scoring on the Wild

What is Tyson Jost’s ceiling? It should be high. Just look at that NoDak highlight reel and picture those plays at the NHL level. Picture him frustrating NHL goalies and scoring those highlight reel goals for the Colorado Avalanche.

One of the things that struck me from Jost’s Combine interview was his sober demeanor and his stated drive. Jost has already sought out MacKinnon’s advice when it comes to trainers. I have confidence the young center has the drive and foresight to further seek out more tools to make his Swiss army knife a difference-maker at the NHL.