The Colorado Avalanche are sure to bring the fans excitement this season. First up — the goalie battle for the number-one spot.
Colorado Avalanche fans have a lot to be excited about with the upcoming season. As we start the countdown to the preseason and regular season, let’s look at some of those areas of excitement.
It’s so hard to know where to start. However, something I haven’t written much about yet is the impending goalie battle.
Semyon Varlamov has been the Avalanche’s number-one goalie since the Golden Why Not Us 2013-14 season. Colorado rewarded Varlamov’s Vezina finalist season with a lucrative five-year contract worth $29 million. That’s up after the upcoming season.
Philipp Grubauer has been the Washington Capitals’ backup goalie for the last three seasons. Colorado traded for Grubauer this summer, sending a second-rounder from this year and agreeing to take on Brooks Orpik‘s salary in return for the goalie. They promptly signed him to a three-year contract worth $10 million, starting with the upcoming season.
Upon signing Grubauer, GM Joe Sakic stated the Avs now have two number-one goalies. Reading between the lines, what that really means is that the two will be battling for the number-one spot.
Let’s look at the combatants.
About Semyon Varlamov
Age: 30
Catches: Left
2017-18 stats: 51 games (24-16-6), .920 save percentage, 2.68 GAA
All-time stats: 399 games (193-150-41), .916 save percentage, 2.65 GAA
Semyon Varlamov is a big, mobile goalie with fantastic reflexes. He moves well in the crease, and his glove hand is stealthy-good. One thing that really sets him apart is his cool demeanor — he’s seemingly unflappable.
Varlamov has always been the type of goalie who can steal a game or lose a game. He can throw a 57-save night one game and let in a bunch of soft goals the next night. For all his cool head, he’s not consistent in that category.
What really gets Varlamov in trouble is his health. He fought groin issues for years. He finally had surgery last summer to correct the issue. Then, his knee got injured in a collision during a Blackhawks game.
About Philipp Grubauer
Age: 26
Catches: Left
2017-18 stats: 35 games (15-10-3), .923 save percentage, 2.35 GAA
All-time stats: 101 games (43-31-11), .923 save percentage, 2.29 GAA
Philipp Grubauer is also big but lankier than Varlamov. He’s athletic and does well to stop the puck. His good reflexes lead him to making great saves look easy.
I don’t know as much about Grubauer as I do Varlamov, of course. Judging by his stats, he seems like a consistent goalie. His save percentage stays pretty consistent throughout his play, and that’s good to see.
He’s younger that Semyon, and that’s part of what the Avalanche wanted. They’re in a full youth movement.
Let’s look at how this goalie battle might play out.
Advanced Stats
Looking at some advanced stats helps me compare the two goalies a little better.
One stat you look at with goalies is Quality Start, which is defined thus:
"If the starting goalie stopped at least a league average number of shots, which was typically 91.3% prior to 2009–10 and 91.7% since then, or if he played at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer, we defined that as a Quality Start."
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So, the starting goalie needs to play as well as another starting goalie or as well as a backup while allowing two or fewer shots. Anything over 60% is good, while 53% is the league average. Grubauer was at .679 last season, while Varlamov was at .596. Of course, you could make the case that Varlamov faces more than the league-average of shots, and you wouldn’t be wrong.
Another interesting stat for goalies is the Goals Against Percent, which is goals allowed percentage relative to league goals allowed. The lower the better, with dead neutral being 100. Grubauer is at 87%, while Varlamov is 91%.
On slow and steady, the stats seem to favor Grubauer. However, here’s an interesting stat for goalies — the Goals Saved Above Average. This is the number of goals the goalie prevented given his save percentage and shots faced against the NHL average save percentage on the same number of shots. In this case, the higher the number, the better.
Grubauer got 10.64. Varlamov was at 11.99. In case you’re wondering, like I was, he got 27.45 in the Golden Season. He was also a whopping -11.53 during the Dreadful 48-Point Season. That in a nutshell is Semyon as a goalie.
Last year’s 10.64 was Grubauer’s best. His lowest was 1.53 — he’s never been in the negative. I think that, in a nutshell, is Philipp as a goalie.
Predictions for the Goalie Battle
You know I’m not a big proponent for fancy stats, though I found those above interesting. They also just reinforced what I kind of already knew. Varlamov is a more spectacular goalie. Grubauer is literally, technically better.
We’re going to see that dynamic play out this season. How do I think it’s going to work out? All things being equal — meaning both goalies (I’m looking at your, Varly) stay healthy — I think we’re going to see the coaches gives both goalies nearly equal chances in the beginning.
And I think we’re going to see Varlamov pull ahead. That spectacular nature is going to bubble to the surface. Plus, he’s got the advantage of playing with a team he knows well — and that he knows may force him to make 57 saves in a game.
And he’s in a contract year. He’s going to be motivated by the competition and by that fact.
What we hope to see is Grubauer getting comfortable with the Colorado Avalanche’s style of hockey. We hope to see him learn what he can from Varlamov in preparation of taking over next year. Because the hope is definitely there that he’ll be the starter after this season.
Like I said, this goalie battle is definitely a reason to be excited for the Colorado Avalanche’s upcoming season.