Colorado Avalanche: Top 9 Questions the Team Must Answer this Year
The Colorado Avalanche, one of the youngest team in the NHL, will have a lot of questions to answer in the 2017-18 season.
The Colorado Avalanche went from being the joke of the NHL in their 48-point Lost Season to making the playoffs — and challenging the heavily-favored Nashville Predators to a fair fight.
However, every season is a new start. As we approach the 2018-19 season, there are a lot of questions surrounding the Avalanche. As our star center, Nathan MacKinnon, stated, it’s playoffs or bust for the Avs.
MacKinnon had a career season, earning an astounding 97 points — and his 39 goals were more than superstar Peter Forsberg ever earned in a single season. (Weird stat, I know.) It’s a little-kept secret that Nate carried Colorado on his back into the playoffs.
That’s not to say he didn’t get any help. His wingman, Mikko Rantanen, was a large part of the reason MacKinnon didn’t earn the Hart Trophy, despite his having better stats than the winner, Taylor Hall. It was thought Hall didn’t have as quality of support as MacKinnon did in Rantanen and his career-best 84 points.
Concerning the playoffs, it all came down to Game #82 last season against the St. Louis Blues. Winner made the playoffs, and that winner was the Colorado Avalanche. And there was plenty of luck along the way — including in that game alone. Really, either team could have won.
So, playoffs or bust. Which is it going to be for the Avs? Let’s look at the top questions that will help determine the answer to that.
9. Which Prospects will Make the Team?
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The Colorado Avalanche was one of the top-three youngest team in the NHL last season — it all depended on who was injured and had a prospect taking on his role. But it’s safe to say the youth movement was in full effect.
Well, GM Joe Sakic vowed to get even younger this summer. The Avs let 32-year-old Blake Comeau walk in free agency and essentially replaced him with 28-year-old Matt Calvert. The old man of the team is now 32-year-old Carl Soderberg — Erik Johnson and Semyon Varlamov are the only other 30-year-olds on the roster.
The Avs will be looking to fill their roster with some of their prospects. The regular rookies from last season — Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher, Samuel Girard and Alexander Kerfoot — are almost assured roster spots this season. But who might be this year’s rookies?
I think the best bet is Conor Timmins, whom the Avs selected 32nd-overall in 2017, which was a steal. He had a minor setback with his major juniors Greyhounds, getting injured in Game 5. However, he’s already skating with some of the other prospects and a few pros here in Colorado.
Vladislav Kamenev is a player Colorado acquired in the Matt Duchene trade. He played three shifts with the Avs before a Brooks Orpik hit broke his arm and sidelined him for most of the season. I’d see the Avs giving him another try.
Three other centers — Josh Dickinson, Sheldon Dries and Logan O’Connor — were late signings by Colorado. If they have a good showing at training camp and the preseason, they might earn a spot on the bottom line.
If Semyon Varlamov can’t stay healthy, I could see Pavel Francouz getting tapped at least for backup duties.
I think it’s possible Martin Kaut will make the team next year, just not right away. He was Colorado’s 2018 first-rounder. He’s never played in North America, though, so he’s almost sure to start with the Colorado Eagles. If he’s doing well there, though, I could see him being a call-up for the Avs.
8. Who Will Emerge as the #2 Center?
The Colorado Avalanche had a very clear third line last season with Carl Soderberg centering Matthew Nieto and Blake Comeau. The last is gone, but it’s expected Matt Calvert will take his place.
But the Avs need a bona fide second-line center. Last season those duties mostly fell to Kerfoot. They may well do so again. But I wouldn’t say he’s the #2 center Colorado needs. Or, I think he needs to prove he’s the bona fide #2 center.
His competition is going to be his best buddies from last year, Compher and Jost. No question Tyson is expected to step into that position. Indeed, he seemed to get his NHL legs in the last quarter or so of the NHL season. However, it’s a far cry to say it’s his job to lose since he hasn’t really earned it yet.
Compher is also a legit contender. He’s got a better all-around game than the other two players, especially when it comes to defense. And he displays innate leadership qualities.
I think last season the Avs acquired Colin Wilson with the thought of his serving as interim #2 center while the prospects developed. He did not fulfill that role. Unless he radically turns his year around, he won’t be that player this season either.
7. Can Erik Johnson Play a Full Season?
There’s a player whose role with the team cannot be doubted — defenseman Erik Johnson. He’s the cornerstone of our defense and one of the alternate captains.
However, in his entire 10-year career, he’s never played a full season. He usually misses at least a few games with injury. And he’s twice been suspended. Indeed, suspension was the only reason he didn’t play the full 2013-14 season. (Thanks, Brendan Shanahan.)
There’s no question of fitness. He came into camp last year well exceeding the team’s expectations for conditioning. However, freak injuries keep taking him out. He suffered a separated shoulder in what looked like the mildest of collisions last year. And a freak golf injury kept him out an entire season his sophomore year with the Blues.
Johnson’s workload isn’t easy. He’s the main minute-muncher on the team. And those minutes usually come against the toughest competition in the NHL.
And he hit 30 years old this year. In the real world, that’s prime. In the NHL, he’s on the verge of veteran.
Colorado has done a lot to augment the defensive corps. However, Johnson is their best defenseman. Their success will depend a lot on whether he’s in the lineup.
6. Who will Comprise the Bottom Defensive Pairing?
The top defenseman isn’t in doubt — it’s Johnson. His cohorts on the top-four are also pretty set — Nikita Zadorov, Sam Girard and Tyson Barrie.
There is bound to be some shuffling on the bottom pairing, though. As of right now, the main candidates for that position are the following:
- Ian Cole
- Patrik Nemeth
- Mark Barberio
- Anton Lindholm
In addition to those players, Colorado qualified Mark Alt over the summer.
They also have their own draft picks. Timmins tops that list. However, Nicolas Meloche is one stunning preseason away from at least getting to be the seventh defenseman. And David Warsofsky spent time in and out of the lineup last season.
If I had my druthers, the defensive pairings would look like this:
Johnson-Zadorov
Barrie-Cole
Girard-Timmins
Barberio
Or maybe I’d pop Girard to the top pairing with Johnson and replace Cole with Zadorov, putting Ian in the bottom pairing. I generally like the idea of pairing youngsters with veterans. Plus, Colorado has a lot of speedy, puck-moving defensemen — but you need somebody who can shut players down.
5. Which Journeymen will Step Up?
That brings us to our next question — which journeymen will make an impact on the team this season?
The core of the Colorado Avalanche is obvious:
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Gabriel Landeskog
- Mikko Rantanen
- Tyson Jost
- Erik Johnson
- Tyson Barrie
- Sam Girard
Plus, of course, the two goalies — Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer.
The immediate ancillary players are JT Compher, Alexander Kerfoot, Sven Andrighetto and Nikita Zadorov (who maybe should be in the core group).
That’s only 13 players, though, just over half the team. The rest of the team will be comprised of journeymen and role players.
I feel pretty good that the third line of Soderberg, Nieto and Calvert will be solid again, if not quite as fruitful as last season. The hope is there that Wilson will live up to expectations.
Gabriel Bourque was one of the Avs’ best journeymen last season. He’s a tenaciously hard worker. If he keeps that up, he can make an impact on the team.
Defensively, we’ve got to see what we’ve got to see what Ian Cole has to offer. Mark Barberio, Anton Lindholm and Patrik Nemeth are also looking to earn spots. Of the three, I think Barberio has the best chance of being an impact player.
4. Who is the #1 Goalie?
Semyon Varlamov has been the Avalanche’s undisputed #1 for a while now. Pretenders to the crown have been dethroned. To be honest, the most legitimate contender recently was Jonathan Bernier. Had he stayed healthy, we might have had a real competition.
Well, we have a real competition this season. The Colorado Avalanche traded for then signed Philip Grubauer, formerly of the Washington Capitals. At the time if signing, Sakic stated outright that the Avs now have two #1 goalies. In GM-speak, that means game on for the #1 spot.
Who do I think it’s going to be this season? Semyon Varlamov. Varly knows this team, and the team knows him. He gets better the more shots he faces — and that’s practically a prerequisite for Avs goalies. What’s more, he thrives in the competitive atmosphere of being challenged for the starting spot.
And, it’s a contract season for him. After this year, he’s an unrestricted free agent. Players always play their best in career seasons.
I think somewhere later in the season we’re going to start seeing the passing of the torch. I don’t think Grubauer is going to earn next year’s starting spot. However, he’s going to have prove he’s Varlamov’s heir apparent. Because even though this is a contract year for Varly, I don’t think he’s earning that contract with the Avs. Not unless Grubauer fails to live up to expectations, then we might see a stop-gap contract while we desperately search for the real heir-apparent.
3. Can Mikko Rantanen Succeed on his Own?
On the other end of the spectrum, we have to start looking at a player who has unquestionably been a starter — winger Mikko Rantanen. Like I mentioned, he sort of cost MacKinnon the Hart. What’s more, he was just voted #17 in the entire NHL for wingers by NHL Network:
He was second on the team for scoring with 84 points (29 goals, 55 assists). Rantanen had the exact opposite of a sophomore slump (at least until he hit the playoffs, but let’s not focus on that.)
So, though my question is whether Rantanen can succeed without MacKinnon, I’m not actually entertaining the idea of breaking up that top line. The Rants-Mack duo is a one-two punch with captain Gabriel Landeskog adding an extra jab in there.
I guess my question is more of whether Rantanen can prove to be a legitimate star on his own, independent of MacKinnon’s fire. Can he augment MacKinnon’s fire with magic of his own?
Can he take on some of the heavy lifting from Nate’s back?
Even teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have superstar Sidney Crosby, and the Washington Capitols, who have superstar Alexander Ovechkin, have a star-caliber sidekick. In their cases, it’s Evgeni Malkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov respectively.
Well, the Avs don’t have an Evgeny/i. They have a Mikko. He has to put up similar numbers to last season to prove he’s a star-caliber sidekick to Nathan MacKinnon.
2. Is Nathan MacKinnon an Elite Player?
Speaking of Nathan MacKinnon, now we start getting to the big questions facing the Colorado Avalanche. Because if MacKinnon didn’t have his breakout season last year, no way the Avs make the playoffs. Or get much more than, say, 70-something points.
That 97-point MacK was not a player we’ve ever seen, not since major juniors anyway. He came close his rookie season. However, prior to that God-Mode season last year, here’s how the progression of MacKinnon’s career has been:
- 2013-14: 63 points (24 goals, 39 assists) in 82 games
- 2014-15: 38 points (14 goals, 24 assists) in 64 games
- 2015-16: 52 points (21 goals, 31 assists) in 72 games
- 2016-17: 53 points (16 goals, 37 assists) in 82 games
So, as Eminem would say, would the real Nate Dawg please stand up. Is it the player who earned .59 points per game in 2014-15? Or is it the player who earned 1.31 points per game last season?
Needless to say, we need it to be the latter. When we traded Matt Duchene, we bet the farm on Nathan MacKinnon. If he’s not at least a point-a-game player, we’re screwed.
That’s just what you expect from your first-overall franchise player.
1. Are the Colorado Avalanche Good Enough to Compete in the Central?
The Colorado Avalanche play in the elite division of the Western Conference, a division that competes with the Metropolitan
for toughest in the NHL. The dreaded Central Division.
The Avalanche didn’t do a lot in the off season. They acquired a goalie, a journeyman forward and a stop-gap defensman. As of right now, the team seems to be trusting the process of growing prospects.
Is that going to be good enough for the ridiculous Central Division?
I hope so. There’s not a team in the Central you can count on to be weak. There is just not a single bottom-feeder of the bunch. A year ago, that was the Avalanche — yet they beat out tough competition in the Dallas Stars, St, Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks to make the playoffs.
How all the above questions shake out will go a long way in answering this question. I don’t want to say Colorado needs a perfect storm to make the playoffs again. However, they need the majority of the above pieces to fall into place to beat their Central Division rivals and enough Pacific Division teams to even make a wild card spot.
Well, that’s why teams actually play games, right, Avs Nation?
Next. 5 Amazing MacKinnon Goals. dark
Colorado Avalanche hockey is soon upon us. I’m sure already in training camp we’ll be looking for answers to the above questions. But we won’t know until about March how everything is really shaking out.