Colorado Avalanche: Can Alexander Kerfoot Sustain his Success?

Colorado Avalanche forward Alexander Kerfoot had a surprisingly good rookie season. Can he translate that into a repeat performance?

When the Colorado Avalanche signed forward Alexander Kerfoot as a free agent last summer, I didn’t have very high hopes for him in the NHL. Join the crowd, right? Well, yes, exactly.

I hadn’t profiled Kerfoot as a potential college-graduate free agent. So, I did some research on him. Here is some of the scouting I dug up on him:

Kevin Kurz of NBC Sports:

“He looks to me a lot more like an AHL guy for a few years at least; teams should look to sign him because he helps the organization, but he’s not making an NHL impact for a while, if ever. Only one NCAA season with a double-digit goal total, he’s also 23.”

Hayden Soboleski of Dobber Prospects:

“Don’t be surprised if a half-season or more of AHL seasoning comes first. His long-term outlook depends heavily on how other risky bottom-six players like Yakupov, Colbourne, and Nieto play.”

There were some other more flattering scouting reports, but nothing that really suggested Kerfoot was going to do well with the Colorado Avalanche.

I was mislead.

Alexander Kerfoot’s Statistics

Well, turns out Alexander Kerfoot ended up being Colorado’s best rookie in the 2017-18 season. His 43 points (19 goals, 24 assists) surpassed both J.T. Compher and Tyson Jost — though both missed time with injuries — in goals and points.

What’s more, Kerfoot was fifth on the entire team for scoring behind only the big names — and he beat Tyson Barrie for fourth place on the team for goals.

All of that while getting less time than either of his fellow rookies. Kerfoot saw an average of about 13 minutes each game, with a couple minutes a game on the second power play unit.

Kerfoot made the most of that time, though — and with what he had. He has a tendency to pass rather than shoot, which resulted in only 81 shots last season. However, he shot at a 23.5% accuracy.

Arc of Alexander Kerfoot’s Season

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 05: Alexander Kerfoot looks terrified in his first NHL game. /

Alexander Kerfoot started out strong. He scored his first NHL goal — off his “leg” — on October 11, 2017 in Boston. Just over a week later, he scored two goals and earned an assist against St. Louis.

Throughout the rest of October and November, his play was up and down, like you’d expect. But it was mostly up. Indeed, from November 4-18, he earned points in six of the eight games he played (4 goals, 5 assists).

Through December and into January, Kerfoot only had one span of three games when he didn’t score a single point, a couple more two-game points droughts, and the occasional single game with no points.

By February 1, Alexander Kerfoot had scored 12 goals and earned 20 assists. However, in February, he seemed to hit a wall. From February 1-6, Kerfoot went pointless in six games. Then, from February 24 to March 18, he went pointless for 12 games. It was looking rough.

Well, it should be no small wonder. February was when the Colorado Avalanche’s schedule got grueling, when they were basically playing a game every other or every two days with little to no downtime. And the Avs were making a playoff push, so they essentially went into playoff hockey mode.

During Kerfoot’s time at Harvard University, he never played more than 36 games in a season. By February 1, Kerfoot had already played 46 games. And the Avs’s schedule was just getting intense, with all those games and that playoff push.

No wonder the rookie fumbled a bit.

However, he finished strong. He got two big goals against the Chicago Blackhawks on March 20. He also earned three points (2 goals, 1 assists) in April.

In the playoffs, his ice time dropped a little, but he managed two goals against the Predators.

Future for Alexander Kerfoot’s Success

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I underestimated Alexander Kerfoot’s potential before, and I’m tempted to do so again. Yet, I really shouldn’t. He showed a lot of adaptability. Indeed, I think part of the reason Kerfoot even made the team was because he showed chemistry with Matt Duchene and Nail Yakupov. Duchene got traded, and Yakupov dropped in and out of the lineup. Yet Kerfoot persisted.

He played on the All Rookie line with Jost and Compher and even stood in for Nathan MacKinnon when he was injured. Like I said, he also saw time on the power play, and not the premium first-unit minutes either. Yet he converted that into five power play goals — best after the first power play unit.

A knock on Kerfoot is his size — 5-foot-10, and a willowy 175 pounds. Yet aside from once getting attacked by the gigantic Devan Dubnyk, Kerfoot rarely if ever seemed to get man-handled.

He’s renowned for his ice vision. That vision seems to help him avoid the big problems. And he’s got a slinky in his spine that seems to allow him to twist and evade opponents.

Also on the plus side is his penchant for working his way in front of the net. Surprisingly, his lack of size doesn’t hurt him in that gritty area. And he’s been able to translate that positioning into a couple flukey goals.

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So, I think Alexander Kerfoot can continue to grow his game at least a little — especially of he grows his frame a bit. Does he have the same ceiling as Tyson Jost? Probably not.

However, Kerfoot is a wily scorer. Next season he’ll be more used to the rigors of an 82+ game season. So, hopefully he continues to grow his role for the Colorado Avalanche.

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