Colorado Avalanche Could Trade for Erik Karlsson

The Colorado Avalanche might be making a play for Erik Karlsson. But what price are they willing to pay for the elite defenseman?

Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is sure to be doing his due diligence like any good general manager. He reportedly asked for a free agency meeting with star center John Tavares even though he had to realize the Avalanche wouldn’t make the short list.

So, he’s sure to be kicking the tires on an Erik Karlsson deal. The Ottawa Senators captain and star player is supposedly on the trade block. It makes sense a diligent GM would contact the team about the possibility of making a deal.

All of us over here in Avs Nation hope it goes a little deeper than that, though. Because we have a golden ticket not one single other team in the NHL has — Ottawa’s first rounder in next year’s draft, a pick that could well bring in generational talent Jack Hughes.

So, that begs the questions — do we want Erik Karsson, and at what price?

Erik Karlsson Details

Position: Right-hand Defenseman
Age: 28
NHL Stats: 627 games, 518 points (126 goals, 392 assists)
Contract: 1 year remaining, $6.5 million AAV

Erik Karlsson is an elite right-shooting defenseman. In nine NHL seasons, Karlsson has made the All Star team five times and has won the Norris Trophy for defenseman of the year twice (2012, 2015). He’s a serious contender for that trophy most seasons.

Last season was considered an “off” season for Karlsson because in 71 games he earned “just” 62 points (9 goals, 53 assists). To put that in perspective, that points total would have tied him for third on the Avalanche with Gabriel Landeskog. But, sure, that’s something of an off season for a player who’s had three 70+ point seasons and an 82-point season. (Landeskog, our top-line forward, maxed out at 65.)

Erik Karlsson is the captain of the Senators and is believed to be a good leader. He’s a speedy puck-moving defenseman who, as we see above, can score and generate offense.

In short, he’s the ideal Colorado Avalanche player.

Erik Karlsson Price

This latest rumor comes about because Erik Karlsson has one year left on his contract with Ottawa, and early indicators are he doesn’t want to sign. We go into a lot of the reasons here:

Add to that the report that the Senators made Karlsson a contract offer then the next day, per CBC, the granted other teams permission to negotiation an extension with the star defenseman.

So, let’s answer our two questions. Do we want Erik Karlsson on the Colorado Avalanche? He’s a fast, 28-year-old (which is prime time for defensemen) puck-moving defenseman with scoring prowess that fits Colorado’s mold of player perfectly. In other words, hell, yeah, we want him.

But, at what price? We know for sure Ottawa wants their first-round pick back. They’ve been dismantling the team to start a ground-up rebuild, and a shot at Jack Hughes — or any top-five talent next year — has to be a large part of their plan.

As much as we’d love to fantasize about trading Ottawa’s pick for Karlsson, that’s highly unlikely to happen. Unless… We trade the pick and responsibility for Bobby Ryan‘s seriously ugly contract for one year of EK — which essentially boils down to the right to negotiate with him exclusively.

The boon of the situation is that you’d already have talked to Karlsson, so you already know what he wants. He’s been pretty open that he’s going to use Drew Doughty as a model, and Doughty just signed eight years at $11 million each.

The 31-year-old Ryan has four years left of a contract with an annual cap hit of $7.25 million. True, you get his services, but Bobby is highly unlikely to put $7.25 million worth of product on the ice again. (He had 33 points in 62 games last year and 25 points in 62 the previous year.)

That ain’t pretty, but the first rounder and taking on Ryan’s contract probably still wouldn’t be enough.

So, who do we start throwing in to sweeten the pot? A popular name for the trade is Tyson Barrie. Cale Makar is a close second. If Ottawa accepts Barrie, they’d probably do so just to flip him — I think the Senators are going to be even stronger in the youth movement than the Avs were this year.

So, we have this: Ottawa’s first, Tyson Barrie, and taking on Ryan’s contract for a year of Erik Karlsson and the right to sign him to an eight-year, $88 million contract.

Ouch, no. Maybe, just maybe if Ottawa retains half of Ryan’s salary, that trade is ok. But Colorado has to look to its own future — contract extensions for Mikko Rantanen and Nikita Zadorov plus eventually paying Nathan MacKinnon what he’s actually worth. (We have five years yet, but EK’s tenure here would go through the next nine years.)

I’m guessing the Colorado Avalanche would be more likely to trade the pick and Cale Makar for a late rounder and the right to sign Erik Karlsson to an eight-year, $88 million contract.

Does that make you panic a little? Do we want to re-evaluate how much we want Erik Karlsson?

Erik Karlsson and The Plan

More from Mile High Sticking

I guess you have to go back to the plan. The Colorado Avalanche are in rebuild mode. They just completed a full season of a successful rebuild year. They have some nice pieces already in place as well as a bright future. Their star player is only 22, so time isn’t an issue.

But, Erik Karlsson is a proven NHL star. He’s the same caliber of star as Nathan MacKinnon. Such a star doesn’t come up for grabs every day. And when they do, they sign with their home team, à la John Tavares and Zach Parise. Karlsson can’t do that unless he leaves the NHL, so he will be open to calling a new city home.

I’d say here’s where Joe Sakic has to do some serious due diligence. He has to be really careful about what he promises Erik Karlsson, and he has to make sure EK really will sign a contract with the Avalanche. And he has to ensure that, while the piece he gives up is worthy of the trade, it’s not a piece that will ultimately hamstring the team.

Because trading for Erik Karlsson moves the perceived time frame of The Plan up. With MacKinnon and Karlsson on your team, you have to make the playoffs next season. You have to get past the first round in the next three seasons. You have to be a contender within the time frame of MacKinnon’s current contract and before Karlsson is past his peak.

You have to look at the current roster and evaluate whether you have enough in place for that to be a viable scenario. Do I think the Colorado Avalanche can be a Cup-contending team within five years with MacKinnon and Karlsson in the lineup? I’d like to think so.

Next: What Happened to Conor Timmins?

Will Joe Sakic? Somehow, I doubt it. I think he’s content to let the current plan play out, even if it takes 10 years.

You never know, though. If Erik Karlsson seems to favor Colorado, and Joe thinks he can get a slight edge in the deal… we could just see the trade happen.

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