Colorado Avalanche Could End up with 4th-Overall in the 2018 Draft

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The Colorado Avalanche could end up with the Ottawa Senators’ fourth-overall draft pick this year. It all depends on how much gambling Ottawa is willing to do.

The Colorado Avalanche were not as bad as their 48-point 2016-17 season. They had a couple bumps in the road that sent them into a spiral, but the core of talent was always there.

The Ottawa Senators were not as bad as their nose-dive 2017-18 season, which saw them go from Stanley Cup contenders to front runners in the Rasmus Dahlin Sweepstakes — which they proceeded to lose. The core of talent was there — they just suffered too many distractions.

Here’s the thing, the distractions that caused the Senators to tank aren’t going away like the bumps in the road that the Avs were able to get over. Instead, they’re getting worse.

And that could result in the Colorado Avalanche getting Ottawa’s fourth-overall in the 2018 NHL Draft.

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Brief Overview of Ottawa’s “Distractions”

The distractions are so bad for the Senators that publications such as the Sporting News are calling the franchise “dysfunctional.” It all starts with the owner, Eugene Melnyk. He seems to have lost his mind, or is so delusional about his power as a rich team owner that he can’t see the destruction he’s creating.

Melnyk, who’s owned the team since 2003, has just this year threatened to relocate the team. He blamed the Ottawa fans for essentially not being good enough and not filling the arena for Sens games. His remarks came out just as the Senators were participating in their biggest event of the year — the 2017 Heritage Classic Outdoor Game between Ottawa and the Montreal Canadiens.

He’s also been guilty of an adversarial relationship with the face of the franchise, their best player and most popular star — Erik Karlsson. The star fueled the rumors by stating he wouldn’t be taking any hometown discounts “no matter where I’m going” — thus indicating he was considering leaving.

Fans got so frustrated with Eugene Melnyk, they started a #MelnykOut campaign first on Twitter and then on billboards across Ottawa.

Melnyk was but a minor player in the next couple “distractions.” Senators assistant general manager Randy Lee was arrested while attending the NHL Scouting Combine, being accused of making lewd comments and unwanted advances toward a 19-year-old male hotel shuttle driver. The Senators took no action to mitigate this PR nightmare, though Melnyk did hire celebrity defense lawyer Paul J. Cambria of Sacramento, California.

Toward the end of the season, Karlsson and his wife, Melinda, suffered a heartbreaking loss — their son was stillborn. That’s bad enough, but what has come out recently makes the situation worse. The Karlssons received negative and derogatory statements about the death as well as threats to Erik’s body vis-a-vis his playing. New evidence shows the culprit may be Monika Caryk, longtime girlfriend and current fiancee of Erik’s teammate, Mike Hoffman.

Awkward.

Here’s where things get a little gossipy but also the reason these distractions aren’t going away. Player wives and girlfriends came out in overwhelming support for the Karlssons, leading credence to the idea that it was Hoffman’s fiancee who targeted the couple with cyber-bullying. They stated there’s no way Caryk will be welcome in the team family rooms.

Hoffman was Ottawa’s third-leading scorer last season. Karlsson was their second. This awkward situation means the Senators might have to trade one or both. Indeed, the latest rumor is that Karlsson has formally requested a trade.

Who could blame him? He’s been called out by the team owner, has horrible memories associated with the season, and can’t even rely on his team brotherhood since it housed a viper.

Losing Karlsson and/or Hoffman erodes the core of talent the Senators boasted. Plus, they still have that cantankerous owner creating a toxic environment. And the Randy Lee distraction casts a shadow over the whole organization.

In other words, the 2018-19 Ottawa Senators could be even worse than this last season when they finished #30. They can expect to be firmly in the Jack Hughes Sweepstakes for the 2019 NHL Draft.

But if they don’t give the Colorado Avalanche their fourth-overall this season, the Sens must give them their first-rounder next season to complete the Matt Duchene trade. And that first-rounder could turn out to be a first-overall.

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Likelihood of the Colorado Avalanche Receiving the 4th-Overall

I think the likelihood of the Colorado Avalanche getting Ottawa’s first-rounder this year is on par with an expansion team making it to the Stanley Cup Finals in its inaugural year. Wait…

No, seriously, sports fans have to be eternal optimists. We have to believe every year that the next season will be different. Our team won’t finish last again, or won’t be eliminated in the first round, or won’t be eliminated by the same damn Pittsburgh Penguins again. We have to believe optimistically in order to preserve our sanity, such as it is.

More from Mile High Sticking

I think sport front offices have to be optimistic, too. They may not have as much blind optimism as fans, but they have to believe they’re making strides forward. Therefore, the Ottawa Senators decision-makers may think next year will be a little better — at least better than a fourth-overall season.

The Senators’ front offices should also be a little pragmatic. Unless they make the playoffs next season, they could still end up with the first-overall in the 2019 NHL Draft. Ask the New Jersey Devils, who leapfrogged three spots to earn the first-overall in 2017 — or the freaking Philadelphia Flyers, who leapfrogged TEN spots for the second-overall. Or, you know, the Avs who totally lost the Draft Lottery.

The only way you guarantee you don’t get the first-overall is by making the playoffs. Are next year’s Senators going to make the playoffs in that toxic environment and with Karlsson and/or Hoffman gone? Highly unlikely.

What’s more, there’s a way to mitigate the loss of this year’s fourth-overall — trade Karlsson and/or Hoffman and make a first-rounder part of the deal. That way, you still get a first-rounder in this year’s draft or two in next year’s draft.

Or trade Karlsson to Colorado with the rights to that draft pick being part of the deal. I’m feeling generous — you can have your third rounder from next season back, too.

If I’m Pierre Dorion — and I’m really glad I’m not right now — I start shopping both Karlsson and Hoffman right away. What can you get for one or the other? If you can get a nice selection of draft picks and prospects — say like what we got for Matt Duchene — then pull the trigger on that trade. Know you’re going into full tank next season with eyes set on Jack Hughes.

And give the Colorado Avalanche the fourth-overall in this year’s draft.

Next: Plan for Getting MacKinnon a Cup

Being a hockey GM is one big gamble. Like I said, I don’t think the Ottawa Senators are going to take that gamble this season. However, they have right up until the third-overall Montreal Canadiens make their selection, thus putting Ottawa on the clock to make their decision.

Here in Avs Nation, we’ll be on pins and needles up to that point.

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