Colorado Avalanche: 5 “Under the Radar” Free Agents They Could Target
The Colorado Avalanche have critical offseason decisions to make in 2018, and they may look toward free agents to answer some of those questions.
July 1st is always a fun time for any hockey fan. It’s a chance for teams to add new, experienced faces to the squad.
This particular offseason, there may be some big names and even bigger contracts handed out. Names like John Carlson, David Perron, James Van Riemsdyk and James Neal all look to be available to come that wondrous first day in July, and there is always one big fish. This year it’s John Tavares. Teams looking to add that big fish franchise player like Tavares are going to need a bigger boat (I’m so sorry).
As this pertains to the Avalanche, they took a big step forward this year. But that’s just it; it was one step. This rebuild (retool, whatever you want to call it) is going to take more than one year. Sure the Avs made the playoffs, but they certainly didn’t cruise in and a lot of teams will be hot on their heels next season. Maintaining the course for this team will be key.
I’m all for going after John Tavares. Franchise centers like him don’t come around often and the Avalanche have the cap space to make him a decent pitch. Sakic really should just pay the guy whatever he wants, but that’s another discussion for another time.
I want to take a look at some of the more “under the radar” free agents that may help this team build on the success from last season.
It’s important to note this is still a young team and core players should certainly stay young. I’m not convinced anyone in this UFA class outside of Tavares is going to immediately make the Avs a playoff contender.
Still, veterans have a place on any team. Quality veteran depth is critical to playoff teams, so here are a few. To pick these free agents, I looked at their advanced numbers on public.tableau.com on a table with data compiled by Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine on Twitter). Corey is a writer for The Athletic Chicago. This chart measures shot generation, offensive zone entries, defensive zone exits, and defensive zone entry break-ups. That last one is specifically for defenseman.
Let’s take a look at some of these “under the radar” free agents.
*Disclaimer* – UFA’s tend to get more money than their actual worth in the free agent market. That’s just how it goes. I don’t mind if the Avs sign some of these players, or even if they give them a higher salary. My hope is that any of these signed UFA’s aren’t on long term deals (*see Carl Soderberg contract*).
D – JOHN MOORE
It’s no secret to anyone who watched this season; the Avs defense needs work. There are a lot of young up and coming defenseman in the system (Sam Girard, Conor Timmins, Cale Makar, etc..), but if the Avalanche are going to compete next season, they need immediate defensive depth.
John Moore is a true two-way defenseman. He put up 18 points last season on a surprising New Jersey Devils team and averaging 20 minutes of ice time. His advanced numbers show he can play in a top-4 role, with his shot generation numbers in the 77th percentile and zone entries allowed numbers in the 63rd percentile among NHL defenseman.
The Avalanche could certainly use Moore in a 3rd pairing role. Moore is also someone who could be moved into a top-4 role if needed. The Avs really missed Erik Johnson after he went down, and the AHL defenseman who replaced his spot were not nearly good enough. This is one of the big reasons the Avs were eventually overmatched in their first-round playoff exit.
RW – Jannik Hansen
A key part of Colorado’s success last season, aside from the top line, was the Matt Nieto – Carl Soderberg – Blake Comeau line. They did a great job shutting down opposing teams’ top lines, all 3 did good work on the PK, and even chipped in with a few points. Both Comeau and Nieto are up, so both may not be resigned.
Jannik Hansen is someone who can take Comeau’s place on that line. Nieto has the speed Jared Bednar wants in his team, so does Hansen. Hansen is a speedy veteran that kills penalties and comes with lots of playoff experience between the Sharks and Canucks (the early 2010’s Canucks).
To his credit, Comeau has better offensive statistics than Hansen. However, it’s important to remember the main focus of that line is to play solid defensively and kill penalties. Hansen is a guy who does both well in addition to his speed.
If Comeau is given a new contract, I think he’s earned it. If Sakic and Co. decide to let him walk, Hansen might be a cheaper replacement.
D – Thomas Hickey
Thomas Hickey is an interesting option. Hickey is one of three UFA defenseman on the Islanders along with Calvin De Haan (and Dennis Seidenberg). De Haan seems to be the more coveted than Hickey which means teams may get Hickey at a lower price.
Hickey finished last season with 25 points. More importantly, he averaged 18:00 minutes of ice time and finished with a +/- rating of +20, the best on the team by a long shot. He was one of only seven players on the roster to finish in the + side of the category.
Normally that stat can be misleading, but here I don’t believe that’s the case. The Islanders were one of the worst teams last season in goals against. Much of that is due to poor play in net, but hockey is a team sport. Hickey played an important role in the Islanders defense last season, especially with De Haan missing over half the season due to injury.
As far as the advanced numbers go, Hickey and De Haan both have similar offensive numbers in shot generation and offensive zone entries; also Hickey’s zone entries allowed stats are better than De Haan.
This isn’t to say De Haan wouldn’t be a good option for the Avs on defense, quite the opposite. The fact is De Haan is two years younger and would be looking for a long term deal. With all the defensive prospects in Colorado’s system, Sakic may not want to issue out a long term deal for a defenseman in free agency. Hickey offers a similar style of play for probably a shorter term and lower price.
*Note* The Islanders have the most available cap space heading into next season. They may have enough to sign all their free agents if they want.
RW – Seth Griffith
More from Mile High Sticking
- Could Colorado Avalanche move on from Pavel Francouz next offseason?
- 4 goalies to replace Pavel Francouz if he has to miss time
- Colorado Avalanche make sneaky signing with Tatar
- Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog could return in 2023-24 playoffs
- Colorado Avalanche rookie face-off tournament roster
I know, I know, this feels a little bit like dumpster diving. Why would the Avalanche sign a guy to a contract if he’s been on waivers multiple times?
Griffith is a small, speedy winger who has been given a couple shots in the NHL but hasn’t exactly panned out. Those chances were with the Bruins, Maple Leafs, Panthers, and Sabres. He’s been given some chances to succeed, but I don’t think he should be given up on yet.
Griffith is just shy of a point-per-game player in the AHL and his speed is something Bednar could work with in the line-up. His advanced numbers also show he still may have untapped value. They show he has great defensive zone exits with the puck and her anks in a high shot contribution per 60 percentile; the short version being he helps generate shots in the offensive zone, whether it’s him or a teammate.
Also, Nathan MacKinnon and J.T. Compher are the only players signed through next season on the offense who are right handed shots. It’s not the biggest problem in the world, but it certainly gives the coach more options.
This is a similar situation to the Nail Yakupov signing last season (without the high profile draft position of Yakupov). If Griffith puts up points and earns himself an NHL roster spot, that’s great for the Avs. If not, you can put him in the AHL for depth; no harm no foul.
D – Michal Kempny
It’s back to defenseman we go. Kempny is a little bit like the previously mentioned John Moore. In fact, his advanced number are slightly better than Moore (mostly in offensive zone entries and defensive zone exits).
The Avalanche could really benefit from a player like Kempny. He possesses a true two-way game that makes him easy to pair with other defenseman. He can be moved up and down the defensive pairings as needed and, like Moore, would be much more capable in a top-4 role than AHL defenseman.
Kempny played a top-6 role for the Blackhawks before being dealt to the Capitals around the Trade Deadline. He’s currently playing top-4 minutes for the Capitals in these playoffs and overall does not seem to be a defensive liability.
Next: Colorado Avalanche's Logjam at Defense
Kempny’s availability may be a little higher than John Moore’s come July 1st. The Capitals will have a little over 13.5 million in cap space for next season, but they have some big decisions to make with some other players like John Carlson, Tom Wilson and others. Kempny may well be a casualty of a cap-strapped team and be forced into free agency. If that’s the case, Kempny would be a welcome addition to the Avs back end.