Colorado Avalanche: Overview of the Final 6 Regular Season Games

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SAN JOSE, CA – JANUARY 21: Martin Jones /

The Colorado Avalanche have six games remaining in the regular season. Their playoff chances could go right down to the last minute.

After a regulation loss against the Vegas Golden Knights, the Colorado Avalanche could lose their playoff berth tonight with a St. Louis Blues win.

The race in the Western Conference is tight, especially when it comes to the Central Division. The Colorado Avalanche have 90 points, which would put them solidly in the first wild card berth in the Eastern Conference. However, in the West, their in danger of dropping out.

We need the St. Louis Blues to lose tonight. They’re playing a hot San Jose Sharks team — they’ve gone 9-1-0 in their last 10 games. So, San Jose could well prevail.

That said, the Avalanche can’t influence the results of the Blues-Sharks game. They can only affect the final six games they have remaining.

Colorado has three home and three away games left in the regular season. They probably need eight points in those six games to make the playoffs. It’s certainly doable, but it’s difficult. Let’s look at how those final six games can play out for the Avs to make the post-season.

For statistical purposes, note that Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 92 points (38 goals, 54 assists). Mikko Rantanen is second with 80 points (27 goals, 53 assists). Starting goalie Semyon Varlamov has a 23-16-6 record with a 2.74 goals against average and .918 save percentage.

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March 28: Philadelphia Flyers, Home

All-Time Record: 17-9-4-2(ties)
Record This Season: Avalanche won 5-4 in the shootout

The Colorado Avalanche host the Philadelphia Flyers at the Pepsi Center on March 28. The two teams played in Philly on November 4. The game went to the shootout, with Mikko Rantanen scoring the game-winner. In regulation, Matt Duchene, Blake Comeau, Mikko Rantanen, and Nail Yakupov also scored.

At the time of writing, the Flyers occupied the first wild card spot in the East with 89 points and a 38-25-13 record. Colorado, of course, has more points and a better record, but that’s how the current NHL is laid out.

For the Flyers, their best player is Claude Giroux with 91 points (26 goals, 65 assists). Jakub Voracek is right behind with 80 points (19 goals, 61 assists). Starting goalie Brian Elliot is 21-11-7 with a goals against average of 2.72 and save percentage of .908.

So, on the face of things, the two teams are pretty well matched.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win in regulation, gain two points
Prediction: Avs win, gain two points

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March 30: Chicago Blackhawks, Home

All-Time Record: 57-34-6-3(ties)
Record This Season: 2-0-1

The Colorado Avalanche host the Chicago Blackhawks at the Pepsi Center on March 30. The two teams have competed three times already with Colorado taking their previous home game on October 28 with a score of 6-3 and beating the Blackhawks in Chicago 5-1 on March 20. Their only loss came in overtime in Chicago on March 6.

The Blackhawks have been eliminated from playoff contention — in fact, the Avs did that on March 20. Indeed, they’re certainly going to be looking to play spoiler to the team that eliminated them. The two teams are well-matched in playing style.

This is the penultimate home game for Colorado. Then need to channel their home mojo and win this game to gain the two points.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win in regulation, gain two points
Prediction: Avs win, gain two points

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April 1: Anaheim Ducks, Away

All-Time Record: 39-34-9-7(ties)
Record This Season: 2-0-0

The Colorado Avalanche have beaten the Anaheim Ducks in regulation with a score of 3-1 both times the teams have met this season. Of course, both games were at the Pepsi Center, so home games for Colorado.

Unfortunately, the Ducks’s playoff push has mirrored Colorado’s — they’re both 6-3-1 in the last 10. If you look at overall record, the Avs are better with 41-27-8 vs 39-24-13. Unfortunately, the Ducks have capitalized on the overtime loser points. They’ve been leapfrogging with the LA Kings for the third seed in the Pacific for weeks now.

Anaheim plays a heavy, physical game. Colorado was able to skate around them enough at home to win both games, but now the action is in Anaheim. In fact, this game marks the kick-off of the Avalanche’s all-important final road game of the year.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win in regulation, gain two points
Prediction: Avs tie, win in OT, gain two points

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 21: Tanner Pearson /

April 2: LA Kings, Away

All-Time Record: 44-45-6-4(ties)
Record This Season: 0-1-1

The Colorado Avalanche have been unable to solve the Kings this season. Last time they were in LA, on December 21, captain Gabriel Landeskog opened the scoring, but Kings defenseman Alec Martinez tied the game in the third. Less than a minute into overtime, Dustin Brown capitalized on an Avs defensive breakdown and scored to win the game.

When the Kings came to Denver on March 22, they spanked Colorado 7-1. Captain Anze Kopitar scored four goals. This was a game that the Avs knew was important for their playoff hopes, and they played some of the worst hockey of the season.

Kopitar sits at 88 points (34 goals, 54 assists). He’s getting less Hart Trophy buzz than MacKinnon, but it’s there. Goalie Jonathan Quick has a 31-27-2 record with a 2.38 goals against average and .923 save percentage.

Right now the Kings occupy the first wild card berth. This game marks the second game of Colorado’s final back-to-back series.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win in regulation, gain two points
Prediction: Avs lose in regulation

SAN JOSE, CA – JANUARY 21: Marc-Edouard Vlasic /

April 5: San Jose Sharks, Away

All-Time Record: 53-45-7-5(ties)
Record This Season: 2-0-0

As with the Anaheim Ducks, the Avs have fared well against the San Jose Sharks, having taken both games. But, as with the Ducks, both games were at the Pepsi Center.

By the time the Avalanche arrive in San Jose for their only game in SAP Center this season, the Sharks are sure to have clinched a playoff berth. Colorado is probably still going to be dancing around between the two wild card spots — hopefully. We’re all hoping they won’t have dropped out of the bracket.

What makes San Jose so tough to beat is they’re consistently good across all four lines. They don’t have a single player who’s dominating, but nor do they have any passengers. And both their goalies are good.

I think the Colorado Avalanche are going to lose in regulation to the Kings. I think they’re going to bounce back and play well against San Jose. But the Avs will probably be lucky to get a point out of this game against a team that’s going to be gearing up for a deep playoff run.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win, gain two points
Prediction: Avs lose in overtime

DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 19: Nathan MacKinnon /

April 7: St. Louis Blues, Home

All-Time Record: 50-36-4-6(ties)
Record This Season: 1-3-0

The Colorado Avalanche’s record this season against the Blues isn’t good — 1-3-0. However, the Avs won the most recent game, on March 15 with a score of 4-1. That game was even in St. Louis. However, the last time the Blues played in the Pepsi Center, on October 19, Colorado lost 4-3.

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Pundits have stated this game between the Avalanche and Blues can well be the decider in who goes to the playoffs. Realistically, the Avalanche could have 96 points by keeping up their tradition of gaining 70% of the points available at home (so three against the Blackhawks and Flyers, though that’s not what I predicted) and 50% available on the road (so three on the Cali road trip).

The Blues are on pace to be at 96 points in this game as well. So, yes, the winner of this game could well determine who gets the playoff berth. And it doesn’t matter, then, if the team wins in regulation, overtime, or the shootout.

Talk about a playoff atmosphere. We’re talking Game 7 type of action.

The Blues are similar to the Sharks in that they don’t have any truly dominant players, but they’re consistently good across their lines. Their goalies aren’t as talented as Semyon Varlamov, but they don’t make egregious errors either. They just annoyingly squeak by.

The Colorado Avalanche are faster, more skilled (overall), and more talented (overall). They’re younger and more exciting — but in bad ways as well as good.

I’m going to give the home ice advantage even though it didn’t work last time the Blues were at the Pepsi Center. That was a different team playing. And this night marks the end of the regular season in front of the Avs’ home crowd. I think the Colorado Avalanche are going to feed off the energy and win a playoff berth in front of the home crowd.

Next: Avs Battling for Trophies

And, let’s face it, Nathan MacKinnon should be the player who scores the game-winning goal.

Best Case Scenario: Avs win, clinch playoffs
Prediction: Avs win, clinch playoffs

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