Colorado Avalanche: The Ups and Downs of Sam Girard

The Colorado Avalanche received defenseman Sam Girard as part of the blockbuster Duchene trade. The 19-year-old rookie is developing at the NHL level.

They keystone piece for now that the Colorado Avalanche received as part of the Matt Duchene trade was defenseman Samuel Girard. Defensemen are a prime commodity in the NHL, so it’s not too surprising that the Avs received one in return for one of their best scorers.

Indeed, while the team was shopping Duchene, it was a well-known fact that they were asking for an NHL-ready defenseman, among other pieces. Well, Colorado didn’t exactly get that in return. At the time, they got a rookie defenseman from the Nashville Predators who had five games (1 goal, 2 assists) to his name. That’s not exactly the seasoned young defenseman I think the Avs were hoping for.

That said, they knew the Predators had the best defensive corps in the NHL and so could give up a prime d-man. They had also committed full-fledged to the youth movement, meaning letting their players grow up together. The 19-year-old Girard seemed to slot into the plans.

So, let’s look at how young Girard has been developing with the Colorado Avalanche.

Samuel Girard Stats

Age: 19 (birthday 5-12-98)
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 162 lbs.
Shoots: Left
Games Played (for Avs): 53
Points: 2 goals, 13 assists

Sam Girard is not a big young man. Though NHL.com notoriously lists players on the light side, judging by a plain-clothes Girard, 160s is probably pretty accurate:

What’s more, you can see his lack of size a little bit when he does actually get into some physical play. He’s no Tyson Barrie, who’s the same height but a meaty 30 pounds heavier. The hope is that Girard puts on that kind of muscle weight as he actually, you know, grows up.

Interestingly, Girard has played a more physical game than you might expect from one so slight. He’s blocked 53 shots and delivered 32 hits in his 53 games with the Colorado Avalanche. I’m certainly not putting him in bruiser territory, though he’s recorded more hits in 53 games than Barrie has (27) in the same amount of games.

Anyway, on to the actual statistics. Girard has not kept up his pace of scoring as when he was with the Predators — 2 goals 13 assists in 52 Avs games vs. 1 goal, 2 assists in five Preds games. That’s probably not too surprising. While the Predators had the luxury of completely sheltering him, Colorado’s lack of defensive depth (at the time) compounded with injuries meant Girard got some tougher assignments than you would normally expect to see from a 19-year-old d-man.

Indeed, with Colorado, Sam Girard is #10 on the team for average ice time with 17:30. That’s second pairing territory as well as a defenseman who quarterbacks the second power play unit.

And Girard has been doing well with that ice time, even if it doesn’t show up on the scoresheet. He has a CorsiFor of 53.7% and a Relative Corsi of 8.9. Girard is still getting some sheltering, with 66.1% of his starts coming in the offensive zone. However, that’s likely to be the player he’ll always be — no one expects Sam Girard to develop into a shut-down defenseman.

So, let’s look at what kind of defenseman Sam is supposed to become.

The Ups and Downs of Sam Girard

Early on, cornerstone defenseman Erik Johnson said of Sam Girard:

“He’s lightyears ahead of any 18-, 19-year-old defenseman I’ve seen in their first 10 games since maybe [Drew] Doughty…It doesn’t happen too often where you see a guy that young step in right away. He has had some time in the minors, but he looks like a special player. “His poise with the puck is just so good. A lot of young players don’t want to make a mistake, so they get rid of it right away. His panic level is so low. He wants the puck and makes plays with it.”

That’s some very high level praise from the captain of the blueline. In any case, Johnson did add a caveat — “the hardest thing at this level is to be consistent.” He acknowledged that the sample size was small to judge by at that point (just a few days after Girard joined the team), but he though Sam would do well.

Naturally, all players go through their ups and downs. That’s going to be especially true of a teenage rookie. As Johnson noted, and as we’ve all seen, Girard doesn’t shy away from the puck. Here he is in his first-ever Avs game skating circles around an impressive (at the time) Ottawa Senators defense:

No, that is not a player who’s afraid to hold onto the puck to make a play. He continued to be impressive through most of November.

However, later November, early December, the inevitable chink started showing in his armor. He started making some bad decisions with the puck and a lot of turnovers. A turnover behind the Avs net led to a goal, and Girard saw his ice time drastically shrink.

We saw the rookie struggle. He was playing against bigger, more aggressive, far more experienced players. As his ice time shrunk, perhaps some of his confidence did as well. Through mid-December, he started disappearing.

Some rookies might shrink in on themselves. However, Girard is one who’s known for being willing to learn. He returned to the basics of his game — his skating and his ice vision. While he didn’t create any scoring chances directly, he started drawing penalties that often led to Avalanche goals. His ice time continued to be short, but he made the most of it to earn his time back.

By January, Sam Girard was having to fill in again. Tyson Barrie went down with an injury. And Sammy started striding into his own again. He earned a point here and there. And he continued to be good with his feet and his stick.

A few little hiccups came about in late January as Girard started testing his offense more. He had the solid basics of his game under control again, so it was time for him to branch out.

And then it finally happened — Sam Girard’s first Colorado Avalanche goal:

As I remarked at the time, Girard is so tiny, so unemotional. Indeed, Tyson Jost‘s mom looks way happier than Girard does.

That’s not to say Girard didn’t suffer a few more downs — he had lackluster performances here and there punctuated with plays like that above no-stick defense.

As of right now, Sam Girard is playing very responsible defense. He’s moving pucks. And he’s creating offensive chances, even if they don’t always pan out.

The Future of Sam Girard

I don’t want to call the Devil to prove me wrong, but it’s hard to see how Sam Girard’s future isn’t bright with the Colorado Avalanche. He’s following the typical trajectory of a defenseman — ups and downs while he tries parts of his game out. However, Girard is just doing so at an accelerated pace.

Colorado Avalanche

Do I think it’s possible he might regress a little next season? Well, anything’s possible. I don’t know anything about Girard’s summer training. I do know the Avalanche coaching staff is specific in what they want players to work on in the summer. I have a hard time thinking Girard would deviate too much from that.

I imagine Sam will want to return to his native Quebec for at least part of the summer. I’d hope he might train at least some time with one of the veteran defensemen — Johnson, Barrie or even Mark Barberio. Or a veteran defenseman from another team. I mean, that’s worked for Nathan MacKinnon.

Concerning farther in the future… I’m going to make a not-so-bold prediction. In fact, the writing appears to be on the wall. Girard will one day replace Tyson Barrie. It could be at this year’s NHL draft or at next year’s Trade Deadline — or anytime in between — but Barrie will be traded for further building-block assets.

Girard is already better at covering the point on the power play than Barrie — he just doesn’t quarterback it for points like Tyson does… yet. We’ve also got one more smallish offensive defenseman in the pipelines, Cale Makar. While he might not join the team next year, his ceiling is much higher than Barrie’s.

And we will definitely have the puck-moving, offensive skills of defenseman Conor Timmins next season. He’s already signed with the Avalanche. He might season a little in the AHL, but I boldly predict he will see NHL ice next season.

So, as early as next season we can see a sophomore Sam Girard on the ice with at least one more puck moving offensive defenseman (Timmins) if not two (Makar). I just don’t see a place for Girard and Timmins and Makar and Barrie. At a certain point you need actual defense beyond some fancy stickwork.

So, yes, I see the future of Sam Girard as a replacement for Tyson Barrie. Before that happens, I do hope the young Quebecois learns everything he can from our talented rover. I also hope he learns from Barrie how to pack the pounds onto a 5-foot-10 frame.

Next: Sam Girard Player Profile

It’s way, way too early to say the Colorado Avalanche won the Matt Duchene trade. However, I feel pretty safe in saying I think this particular lottery ticket is a winner.