Colorado Avalanche Need Sustained Success to Make Rebuild Stick
The Colorado Avalanche look successful in their current rebuild, but they need to stay on track for sustained success.
By the halfway mark of the season, the Colorado Avalanche had matched the number of wins they had throughout the entirety of 2016-17 and were one shy of matching their points total — which they did in the very next game, a win over the Dallas Stars.
Going into the All Star break, the Avalanche lost two in a row in their last roadie, which ended in St. Louis on Thursday. However, that was preceded by a 10-game winning streak. At the tine of writing, the Avs have a very respectable 27-18-3 record and 57 points — in the brutal Central Division, that’s good for last wild card space.
Last season’s debacle of 48 points was seen as the first step in a full rebuild for Colorado. However, we’ve been hearing about rebuilding since just before Matt Duchene was drafted in 2009 — about nine years now.
In that time, they’ve been an up and down team. After finishing last in the conference, they got a high draft pick — I’m talking about 2009, but, yeah, it happened again in 2013. Both times were followed with immediate success — making the playoffs. As we know, at the end of the 2013-14 season, they even won the Central Division.
And after both those events, the cycle started again. Colorado relapsed and fell down to a high draft pick again.
Last year the Avalanche were dead-last in the entire NHL. They were robbed of their first-overall pick, as well as the second and third. However, fourth-overall was still a nice, high draft selection.
And once again, this year we’re seeing success. Colorado is on-pace to make
88
97 points this year — a full
40
49 more than last season.
The Colorado Avalanche may or may not make the playoffs this season. However, 48 games into the season, it’s also clear they’re not going to collapse and totally embarrass themselves (and us) like they did last season. We can finally put stock that it’s the truth — this isn’t the same team as last year.
But… we’ve seen this cycle already. We don’t want the Avs to make the playoffs this season, miss them by a few points next year, then start their downward spiral again.
We want the Colorado Avalanche to lay the foundation for solid success.
I asked current and former Mile High Sticking contributors what they thought needed to happen for the Avalanche to make this a true rebuild and not just an anomaly. Let’s dive in.
Further Rebuilding vs Stalling Again
My first question was what the Colorado Avalanche needed to do in order to further their rebuilding rather than stall — or relapse — again.
My former co-editor, Ross Sellers, had the following insight:
“I think the Avs stay the course, the rebuild is in full throttle mode right now, and they have the necessary assets to ensure that it continues according to plan. The only thing they could do is sell off assets like Blake Comeau and Nail Yakupov for a couple more extras. At this point, Yak is probably the only one to get dealt at the deadline though — if a team wants him.”
Sellers was the only one on the sell assets train for this question. In fact, another Ross, current contributor Ross Kleppe, was for maintaining the status quo:
“Honestly, keep playing the way they are. This team is head and shoulders farther along than anyone anticipated and being in the playoff race right now is huge for their development. There is nothing worse than playing a bunch of meaningless games like they did last season, and this season they’ve done a complete 180. High intensity, playoff atmosphere games will do wonders for this young team.”
Another current contributor, Tom Janz, also spoke for staying the course:
“I think the biggest two parts of the rebuild have taken place already with the shedding of several veterans throughout 2017, and the Matt Duchene trade. I think the key, at this point, is to let the highly touted prospects develop, rather than rushing them to fill current holes in the lineup. If a player, such as Cale Makar is ready, great! If not, let him get better at the NCAA level.”
A former contributor, Mark Kinz, offered some in-depth advice:
“Fundamentally, the team needs to continue to grow its stable of prospects. While the current roster is impressive, management can’t forget the lessons of the past, where this team has severely lacked any sort of a sustainable farm system. Ideally, no draft picks get traded away at the deadline or draft. Keep the youth movement alive!
“On a more immediate level, the team has to be thinking about their goaltending situation at this point. Varly keeps getting hurt, Spencer Martin hasn’t come close to reaching his potential, and Andrew Hammond was a cap dump who will likely leave in UFA at the end of the year. Jonathon Bernier’s current stretch of games is impressive, but he’s had a history of inconsistency in the past. If the team can sign him to a 2-3 year extension as a backup, that will provide some stability as they reevaluate the Semyon Varlamov situation. It’s a little weird that goaltending has become an area of concern for this team, but Varly’s health problems are definitely an issue.”
To my mind, everyone who answered this question made valid points. I think everyone agrees that we want to keep developing the youth, we don’t want to take on any more veterans, and we don’t give up any draft picks at the deadline.
As I’ve said before, I’m of two minds about making the playoffs this season. Yes, they’re fun. More importantly, as Kleppe pointed out, some high-octane playoff games would be great for the youngsters’ development.
On the other hand, I don’t want the Avs to get ahead of themselves again. They’re playoff contenders, not Cup contenders. Therefore, it would be an absolute disaster to try and pick up a few win-now pieces at the expense of the future.
On the flip side, if deals like Sellers is suggesting can be made for some picks and prospects, I’d love to see them make the deal. (Though I’d hate to lose Teri-Yaki.)
Avoiding an Outlier Season
We all loved seeing our player idols lead our team to where we thought they deserved to be — not just relevancy but elite status. If you say anything otherwise about the 2013-14 season, you’re looking through the lens of hindsight. We were all on Cloud 9 — and 29.
That said, looking through the lens of hindsight at both 2013-14 and 2009-10, those were outlier seasons. The Colorado Avalanche weren’t as sustainably good as their records showed them to be. The outlier seasons were followed by regression years.
So, I asked how the Avs could avoid turning 2017-18 into another outlier season.
Tom Janz thinks the same way I do:
“I think the best way to avoid an outlier season is to not overreact to this one. The Avs should NOT go out and add several veterans this summer, just because they have overachieved so far this year. Embrace the rebuild. I think Joe Sakic has learned from previous mistakes, and won’t overreact. The team may regress some next season, as the Oilers are now, but I think the organization will stay the course, and be better off for it.”
Colorado Avalanche
In case you didn’t know, Mark Kinz is a fancy stats guy, and we’ve gotten into some pretty good arguments. However, Mark makes some good points:
“Oh man, there are so many reasons 2013-14 was an outlier. The most talked about is that the team was one of the worst possession squads that year, and survived entirely on good shooting and Varly standing on his head. The less-talked about factor is the departure of Paul Stastny, Ryan O’Reilly (eventually), and the signing of veterans like Jarome Iginla, Brad Stuart, and Francois Beauchemin. The 2013-14 team was pretty fast, reasonably young, and loaded with skill. The years after that saw a clear move away from that mold towards a team based on veterans with size. They can avoid this season being an outlier by continuing to trust the process and allowing these young guys to continue to develop in the NHL, while continuing to buy into a system that stresses puck possession.”
Though not as high on fancy stats as Mark, Ross Kleppe echoed some of his sentiments:
“This season has a few characteristics that make me believe it is much different than the 2013-2014 season. For starters, there is much more young talent on this team as opposed to 2013-2014. That season was basically just MacKinnon. This season, MacKinnon leads the other youngsters like Rantanen, Kerfoot, Compher, Jost, and Girard.
“Also, their ‘basic’ advanced numbers are much better. They aren’t getting outshot 40-18 every game and relying on Varlomov to stand on his head. They are top 10 in the league in Powerplay, top 5 in PK. Most importantly, they can exit the zone with the puck by making breakout passes instead of just flipping it 100 feet in the air into the neutral zone.
“The biggest reason I see is how they are scoring their goals. That 2013-2014 season, they scored most of their goals on the rush with that dominant Landeskog-Stastny-MacKinnon line. There wasn’t much secondary scoring beyond that line. This season, they have obvious, visible puck possession. As good as the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line is at hemming teams in their own zone, the rest of the forwards have shown they can control the puck as well.”
Ross Sellers talked a little about possession as well as their assets:
“They are already avoiding it with improved possession numbers and by trending in the right direction with their salary cap. They have team controlled assets for the foreseeable future, and will only get better as MacK and Rants continue to progress. You’re telling me MacKinnon’s contract at 6.3 mill is normal for a guy of his caliber? That contract alone will ensure this team’s future.”
I think for this season, the key is to stay the course. I think the 2013-14 rebuild could have worked if we’d done two things — one, acknowledged it was a rebuild and not a return to form, and two, stuck with it.
The 2016-17 debacle was preceded by a total 90-degree turn in the team focus. If the Colorado Avalanche had acknowledged they were in a rebuild and kept, you know, rebuilding rather than selling off their future, I think we’d have a big, speedy team that scores on the rush en route to the playoffs.
So, we’ve shed the size and some of the rush scoring for skill and possession. The Avs need to keep building to that model in development and drafting to avoid 2017-18 being another outlier.
Needed Pieces for the Colorado Avalanche
So, we’re all in agreement that the Colorado Avalanche need to keep on keeping on. However, while there shouldn’t be as much turnover as there was last season, we still need key pieces for the rebuild to continue.
No one really agreed on this one.
Ross Sellers thinks we need wingers:
“Wingers, of course. This team needs wingers so badly. Of the top six ilk as well.”
Conversely, Mark Kinz thinks we need centers:
“They may not need to necessarily “add” this, but at the moment, it’s unclear as to who the second line center is. Before he was injured, J.T. Compher was playing well beyond what anyone thought his potential was, and made a strong case for himself. However, Alex Kerfoot would be an obvious choice, as he’s easily the best rookie on the team right now. And of course, Tyson Jost was expected to fill this role upon the Duchene trade, so he could still develop into a clear #2. Until the center situation is cleared up, however, the team couldn’t be hurt by acquiring more young depth players on the wings, especially if some of the vets are traded away.”
There was a little agreement between Ross Kleppe and Tom Janz. Here’s what Tom said:
“I think the biggest hole in the Avalanche organization is in net. I don’t think Varly or Bernie are solid long-term answers in net. Spencer Martin has not developed all that well in the AHL. He’s not bad, but doesn’t appear to be ready to be an NHL ready goalie at the moment. I’m NOT advocating trading for a goalie right now, but I think the team will need to add one eventually to get deep into the playoffs in future seasons.”
Ross concurred somewhat:
“The young forwards are continuing to get important minutes and there is significant prospect defenseman depth for the first time in a while. The biggest question on this team remains the goaltending position. Jonathan Bernier has been absolutely stellar this season in relief of Varlomov. The problem is inconsistency has been Bernier’s main issue his whole career and Varlomov unfortunately cannot stay healthy. If I was Joe Sakic, I would seriously look at the goalie market in the offseason to see who’s available through trade, free agency, or even the draft.”
Again, everyone has made key points. I’d say what the Colorado Avalanche need most is future superstar Rasmus Dahlin, but the odds are against that happening. Aside from him, I don’t think the Avs need anything more on defense.
Right now the Carl Soderberg-Matthew Nieto-Blake Comeau line is the team’s second-hottest line. That can’t be sustainable. Those are third- and fourth-liners.
Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher are the up-and-comers. We need to solidify how those three players will consistently be top-nine for the Avalanche. I’ll explore that further in a future post, but Sellers may have a point that we need some wingers.
I think it’s become glaringly obvious that the Avs have an impending goalie situation. Semyon Varlamov’s groin has never been what it was in 2013-14 — that was as much of a mirage as their Central Division title. We’ll have to drill down how to solve that situation in future posts, but something other than Varly’s groin has got to give at goal tending.
Buyers, Sellers or Watcher at the Trade Deadline
All of us concur that the Colorado Avalanche cannot sell their future for a win-now situation. However, the NHL Trade Deadline is just one month away. And it seems like Colorado always does something.
Mark Kinz is convinced that something is selling:
“The smart thing to do would be selling, even though it may be a tough pill to swallow with a playoff spot within reach. The obvious choice, unfortunately, is to break up the third line, which has had a fantastic bounce-back year. Blake Comeau is the prime example of a rental player for a cup contender: he’s a pending UFA with playoff experience who provides depth scoring at a reasonable cap hit. In exchange, the Avs could probably get a 3rd round pick, though I’ve seen players of Comeau’s caliber go for a 2nd in the past. Soderberg could also be moved, but he would need to waive his NTC, and the Avs would likely need to retain some salary.
“Other options include Colin Wilson, Mark Barbario, and potentially even Nail Yakupov, if anyone is willing to take a flyer on him.”
Ross Kleppe talks himself into being on Team Watcher:
“This is a difficult situation to call. On one had, if you have a chance to make the playoffs, you try your hardest to make the playoffs. It’s been shown if you get in, you have a chance. Playoff success has eluded the Avs for a while, and it would be certainly be fun to see.
“On the other hand, no one expected the Avs to be this good so soon after last year. The Avs do not have to make the playoffs for me to consider this season a success.
“If the Avs are to be buyers, the player they get needs to be a long term one. I don’t think they should give up some of the many assets they have just for a rental. I’ve harped for a while that scoring on the wing has been a problem for a while, but ONLY if that player was going to be around for years after this season. Those moves normally don’t happen during the deadline, so I don’t think the Avs should be buyers.
“If they want to be sellers, judge the market. Blake Comeau and Nail Yakupov seem to be the most frequently brought up names. If the market for wingers during the deadline is flush with players, you probably won’t get much in return from them. If there aren’t many wingers, either one could fit a team need and you might be able to get higher than market value for them. The big one for me is Jonathan Bernier. He’s been incredible this season, and that certainly has boosted his trade value. If a team is looking for a quality back-up OR if a team loses their starter long term to injury, the Avs could fetch a large haul for Bernier.
“I am firmly in the Team Watcher’s camp. The Avs are essentially playing with house money this season. If they make the playoffs, that’s great. If not, it wasn’t a lost season and they’ll have a shot at Rasmus Dahlin (Avs fans of all people should know how goofy the NHL draft lottery can be). Teams notoriously over-spend for players at the deadline, and with all the assets the Avalanche have, there’s no need to waste them.
“That being said, if we got a James Van Riemsdyk or a Mike Hoffman, I may not hate it all that much!”
Tom Janz gets right to Team Watcher:
“I think the Avalanche should be a watcher at the trade deadline, assuming the season doesn’t go horribly awry in the next roughly 17 games. They absolutely should NOT add rental players. If a team puts forth an outrageous offer for Blake Comeau or Mark Barberio, the Avs should listen. However, unless it is a second round pick for the former, or a third round pick for the latter, I’m allowing this roster, as presently constituted, to try to get into the playoffs.”
And Ross Sellers is putting it all in GM Joe Sakic’s hands (where it is anyway):
“They are buyers if they want to go into the playoffs and make a run. They look for someone like Pacioretty too. They are sellers if they want to keep building toward the future. And they watch if they want to keep riding the train and hope it turns out well enough to see a postseason berth. Only Joe Sakic knows what they’ll end up doing.”
I’ve never been able to read Sakic the way I could Patrick Roy, so I don’t know what the GM will do. However, if the offer is right, I could see him moving defenseman Tyson Barrie. If he could get half the haul for Barrie he got for Duchene, especially heavy on picks and prospects, that would be a good trade. And I think a team looking to go far into the playoffs might just make the trade.
Likewise, if the Avalanche could use Barrie or something other than picks and prospects to solve their impending goalie situation at the deadline, that would be good. However, that’s probably more of an NHL Draft trade.
Like I said in the previous slide — Nieto, Soderberg and Comeau are coming up spades this season. Could a playoff team see some use in one of those players down the stretch? My guess is a team might be willing to give up a middling draft pick for some of Comeau’s grit in the playoffs.
Next: Matching the Half-Season to Goals and Predictions
The Colorado Avalanche were never truly as bad as the 48-point season they had. They weren’t a 112-point team either. I’d say the 82-point 2015-16 season, 90-point 2014-15 season and potential 97points from this season is about right for the team. That’s the depth they truly have.
As Nathan MacKinnon continues his ascension into elite status with Mikko Rantanen right behind him, and as the youngsters fully develop their NHL roles — and with Gabriel Landeskog captaining the ship — we can see a team rebuild that should deliver sustained success.