Colorado Avalanche: Evaluating the Return for Matt Duchene
The Colorado Avalanche received little immediate return for center Matt Duchene. It’s all about the future for the team.
The Colorado Avalanche got a haul for Matt Duchene. I’m just not convinced we’re looking at quality in addition to quantity. There is some uncertainty in what the team got in return for someone who’s been one of their best players for years.
The trade was a complicated one:
- Colorado Avalanche sent Matt Duchene to Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators sent Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, 2018 1st-round draft pick, 2019 3rd-round draft pick to Colorado Avalanche
- Ottawa Senators sent Kyle Turris to Nashville Predators
- Nashville Predators sent Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, 2nd-round draft pick to Colorado Avalanche
The media created a circus around Duchene that lasted for two years. The end result was that he wanted a trade. Rumor has it he officially asked for a trade last December. I’m not going to comment any further on all of that because the trade is a reality now, and we might as well look at what’s in our trick-or-treating bag.
Samuel Girard
Position: Defenseman
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 162 pounds
Age: 19
NHL Stats: 5 games, 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists)
This is probably the crown jewel of the trade, the Nikita Zadorov of the Ryan O’Reilly trade. (Because it looks like GM Joe Sakic made almost exactly the same trade.)
Samuel Girard is the new style of defenseman — he’s a small puck-mover who skates well. Elite Prospects calls him “a flashy offensive defenseman who takes advantage of opportunities.” The site considers him a hard worker with an excellent release. However, it’s said he needs to work on his defensive stick work more.
Hockey Forecaster considers him a “natural” quarterback to the powerplay and observes “He is smooth as silk with the puck on his stick.” The site also calls him a “cerebral player.” However, the site observes that he’s “significantly undersized” and that leads to his getting knocked off the puck too easily.
Girard is in the first year of his entry-level contract which has a slide clause. This states that, because of his age, he can play up to nine NHL games and not use up a year of his contract. His contract will “slide,” or extend by a year. (It’s the Mikko Rantanen thing.)
If Girard plays 10 or more games in the NHL, that burns off a year of his contract — and Nashville has already used up five of those games. According to Corey Francis of Predlines, that may have been a reason Nashville was willing to give him up.
This can be a good return — if he doesn’t go all Nikita Zadorov, failing to live up to expectations.
Position: Center
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 194 pounds
Age: 21
NHL Stats: 2 games, no points (127 AHL games, 36 goals, 52 assists)
This is sort of the Mikhail Grigorenko piece, only he has even less NHL experience at 21 years old. We may be looking at a career AHLer who will occasionally get the call-up — or who may simply flee back to the KHL.
In any case, Vladislav Kamenev is similar to Grigorenko in that he’s something of an underachiever. Hockey Forecaster advises that he “must work harder on the ice,” especially away from the puck in his own end. It’s also said he has a tendency to “check out mentally.”
The upside is that Kamenev has high-end talent — if he can translate it to the NHL. His size also makes him hard to knock off the puck.
Again, there is too much uncertainty about this player for me to call this a good piece of the return.
Shane Bowers
Position: Center
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 18
NHL Stats: None, he’s in the NCAA system
This is the J.T. Compher portion of the trade. Shane Bowers was the Ottawa Senators’ first-round pick (#28) in the 2017 NHL Draft. He’s currently playing for Boston University, where he has four goals and two assists in 10 games.
Future Considerations scouted Bowers as a “solid 200-foot player who works hard.” He’s considered a good skater who’s especially dangerous driving the net from the wall. He’s considered to have a good hockey IQ.
The Avs scored with Compher. They may have scored again with Bowers. But this is an 18-year-old kid who’s not NHL-ready yet.
Andrew Hammond
Position: Goalie
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 29
NHL Stats: 55 games, 27-14-6
There is no corresponding piece in the ROR trade. Andrew Hammond is a perennial backup goalie, the kind who kicks it in the NHL until an injury necessitates a call up.
Acquiring Hammond shows very little upside except to fortify the team’s goalie depth. It seems the Colorado Avalanche don’t have a lot of faith in Spencer Martin or Joe Cannata in case either Jonathan Bernier or, especially, Semyon Varlamov goes down with an injury.
1st-Round Draft Pick in 2018
The Colorado Avalanche received the Ottawa Senators’ first-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft. It’s a conditional pick, though. If Ottawa has a top 10 pick, Colorado will have to wait until 2019. They’ll get the first rounder then regardless of how high it falls.
At the time of writing, Ottawa is sixth in the Eastern Conference and second in the Atlantic Division. I don’t think we need to worry about that pick being a top 10 — we’re looking at somewhere in the 20s, especially since they just augmented their immediate roster significantly.
2nd-Round Draft Pick in 2018
Colorado will also have a second-round pick from the Nashville Predators. They were in the Stanley Cup Finals last year. However, at the time of writing, they were ninth in the Western Conference and fifth in the Central Division. They’re just one win out of the playoffs, though.
3rd-Round Draft Pick in 2019
This pick also belongs to the Senators. It’s a third-rounder, and that’s always a gamble.
Analysis
The immediate return is Samuel Girard, a younger, greener, smaller Tyson Barrie. A player the Avalanche may have to send back to his major junior team, the Shawinigan Cataractes, if they don’t think the 19-year-old is significantly improving the team. For the Colorado Avalanche’s top-six forward.
In other words, Sakic traded one of Colorado’s best offensive talents for future considerations. We have to hope Samuel Girard and Shane Bowers pan out and that Colorado can get a steal in the 20s of next year’s draft. Because the rest of the package that came back for Duchene was just filler.
Next: Dutchy's Last Goal for the Avs
That’s a huge gamble that Sakic played with the Colorado Avalanche’s future — and their present. Because we’re only 14 games into the season, and Colorado is only one win in front of Nashville. And Nashville just boosted their forward corps with Kyle Turris.
Ah, well, a part of me wanted the Avalanche to win the Rasmus Dahlen Sweepstakes anyway. It looks like Sakic put the team in a good position for that.