Colorado Avalanche Expansion Draft: Projected Protected List

The Colorado Avalanche protected list for the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is official, though the team hasn’t released the contents. Here is the likely list.

Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic has just handed over his list of protected players to the NHL.

Ok, I imagine he didn’t literally have to fly anywhere and hand over a paper list. Maybe he faxed it over à la the year 2000. Maybe he emailed it or even texted it. Whatever the mode of transmission, protected lists were due by 3:00 pm MT.

A quick rundown of the rules: The Avs, as with all teams, had to meet the following exposure requirements:

One defenseman with a minimum of 70 games experience in the last two seasons OR 40 games in the last season who’s under contract for 2017-18.
Two forwards who meet the above experience and contractual requirements.
One goalie who’s either under contract for 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent just prior to the 2017-18 season.

Colorado had two choices for their protection list:

Seven forwards, three defensemen, one goalie
Eight skaters (forwards and defensemen), one goalie

Perusing the Colorado Avalanche roster, I don’t know that they want to protect 10 skaters. So, I’m going to operate on the eight-skater scenario.

Core Players

All teams have a list of players they absolutely must protect because they’re the best they’ve got. For the Colorado Avalanche, that list is comprised of the following five skaters:

Matt Duchene, center
Nathan MacKinnon, center
Gabriel Landeskog, left wing
Erik Johnson, defenseman
Tyson Barrie, defenseman

Neither center Tyson Jost nor winger Mikko Rantanen has to be protected because of their status as prospects of first-year players.

In reality, the above list is incomplete without including defenseman Nikita Zadorov. That’s the third defenseman on the list, and the reason I don’t think Colorado went with the 10-skater scenario. They’d want to protect Mark Barberio, and he’s a defenseman. Plus, they need him to meet the exposure requirements.

Even though Colorado doesn’t yet have Zadorov under contract, they’ll need to get it done this summer or risk losing him to the KHL. And Zadorov was the key piece in the Ryan O’Reilly trade, so they won’t want to lose him.

Ancillary Protected Players

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Even with the eight-skater scenario, Colorado still has two players to protect.

I don’t think the Avalanche will protect Carl Soderberg. He was a major under-performer last season. What’s more, he’s 31 and carries a $4.75 million contract good for three more seasons. He’s neither young nor speedy, so he doesn’t fit the Avs new mold. They’re probably hoping the Las Vegas Golden Knights take him.

I doubt the Avs will care to protect Blake Comeau. He has a more team-friendly contract than Soderberg — $2.4 million for one more season. He’s neither young (also 31) nor speedy. Hopefully he’s going to be benched next season anyway, so Colorado can lose him.

I can’t imagine why the Colorado Avalanche would bother protecting Joe Colborne either. He’s young, just 27, relatively speedy by virtue of his height, and cheap at $2.5 million for one more year. However, he underperformed last year. At best, he’s a neutral force for the Avs — no reason to waste a protection spot on him.

Colorado has three pending restricted free agents in the forward corps, and I think they’ll protect two of them. The odd man out, to my mind, is Mikhail Grigorenko. He has underperformed for two years. Plus, he took the team to salary arbitration last year. Even if Vegas doesn’t select him, I think the Avs are done with him.

I think the Colorado Avalanche will protect Sven Andrighetto and Matthew Nieto for a couple reasons. First, neither is under contract for next season — they’re both pending RFAs — so they can’t be used to meet the exposure requirements.

That said, Vegas can negotiate with any pending RFAs in the next few days if they’re not protected. So, an RFA can’t fulfill an exposure space, but Vegas can still snatch them away. However, if the Knights sign an RFA, that meets the selection from that team.

Andrighetto definitely has to be protected. He fits into the new style of Avs hockey. Colorado gave up Andreas Martinsen for him. He’s more valuable to the team than Soderberg, Colborne or Comeau.

To my mind, so is Nieto. He’s younger than any of them and most likely cheaper. Colorado didn’t give anything up for him, having selected him off waivers, but I still think they want to keep him over Colborne.

Goalie

According to Avs insider Adrian Dater, the Colorado Avalanche are going to protect Semyon Varlamov. They probably just don’t want to risk losing their starting goalie.

It’s highly unlikely they would lose Varlamov considering a much better goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury, has waived his NMC. Vegas will likely select him and a couple relatively cheap backups.

That may put Calvin Pickard in danger of being selected. That’s bad for the Avs because they have only one more goalie under contract — Spencer Martin. That’s not much in the way of goalie depth, especially since Varlamov’s groin could give out again at any moment.

To my mind, it makes more sense to protect Pickard and gamble that Vegas won’t select Varlamov.

Nonetheless, this is what I think the protected list looks like:

Matt Duchene, center
Nathan MacKinnon, center
Gabriel Landeskog, left wing
Erik Johnson, defenseman
Tyson Barrie, defenseman
Nikita Zadorov, defenseman
Sven Andrighetto, wing
Matt Nieto, wing
Semyon Varlamov, goalie

I think Vegas might select Barberio, Pickard or Grigorenko. I hope it’s Grigorenko.

Next: How the Expansion Draft Works

Do you have any different ideas about who might be on the Colorado Avalanche protected list?