Colorado Avalanche: Blueprint for the Rebuild

The Colorado Avalanche are in a rebuild. There are different paths to the rebuild, but the team has to acknowledge they’re not just a step or two from healthy. They need to reconstruct from the ground up.

I’m not going to recommend a scorched earth policy. The team doesn’t need to completely blow up the core, fire the coaching staff, and oust the front offices. Now, I’m no fan of Jared Bednar’s, and I think his leash should be short, but the team is behind him for now. No sense in harping on that.

What’s more, I’m not on the Fire Sakic train. It’s not that I think Joe Sakic is doing a bang-up job. Rather, I worry. If the Colorado Avalanche gets rid of their general manager, they may start from scratch yet again. The team is one year into Sakic’s vision after bailing on the Roy-Sakic vision three years in. I don’t want to return to Ground Zero yet again.

In fact, I’m not going to focus too much on what the Colorado Avalanche have to do in terms of coaching and front offices. Hopefully Colorado gets an adequate and experienced assistant coaching staff to bolster Bednar.

And here’s how the front offices can design a Colorado Avalanche rebuild that finally gets the team out of the basement.

Evaluating the Forward Corps

The Colorado Avalanche want to move toward a speedy skill game. They obviously need fast forwards with excellent puck skills. In fact, their first two lines should be comprised primarily of speedy forwards with different ancialliary skills.

Here’s what the team has so far:

• Nathan MacKinnon: Fleet on the straightaway, agile, strong offensive instincts
• Gabriel Landeskog: Power forward, solid skating skills, bangs in pucks from in front of the net, leader
• Matt Duchene: Speedy in all aspects of skating, excellent playmaker, solid on the puck, strong offensive skills
• Mikko Rantanen: Versatile playmaker, long stride, good offensive instincts
• J.T. Compher: Good skater, two-way acumen, solid work ethic
• A.J. Greer: Agile skater, power forward, solid work ethic
• Tyson Jost: Bulldog on the forecheck, crafty goal scorer, thinks and plays at a fast tempo

That’s the core of the Colorado Avalanche youth movement on forward. JT Compher, AJ Greer and Tyson aren’t guaranteed spots on the roster right out of training camp, but each of them has a good shot.

Right now this cast doesn’t have adequate support in the likes of Blake Comeau and Carl Soderberg. The former should be banished to the locker room and the latter to the checking line.

Speaking of the checking line, Joe Colborne has one more year left on his contract. He’s a gigantic, versatile power forward. He’s relatively fast by virtue of his stride, but he needs to relegated to the Soderberg line.

The Colorado Avalanche have a couple pending restricted free agents in left wing Sven Andrighetto and left wing Matthew Nieto. Andrighetto is a dynamic, skilled player who can make creative plays. Nieto is an industrious, two-way forward with good hockey sense.

Both of them are better complements to the Avs forward core than Comeau or Soderberg. I could see them being good contributors on the third and fourth lines. Hopefully Colorado qualifies both of them.

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Needs for the Forward Corps

A team cannot be built on just one type of forward, or even versions of one type of forward. There needs to be balance.

Right now the Avalanche have plenty of speedy forwards with good stick skills. They even have a couple power forwards to chip in on physicality. What they lack, though, is a strong enough two-way presence. They lost that when they traded away Ryan O’Reilly, and Carl Soderberg hasn’t proven an adequate enough replacement, not for the top lines.

Here’s where the draft comes into play and why I hope Colorado can draft Gabriel Vilardi.  Future Considerations describes Vilardi as playing “aggressively both when his team does and does not have the puck; often hunting it down and stripping it from his opponent.” That’s some good two-way ability. Vilardi is even a player who might make the team out of training camp, or at least sometime next season.

Colorado can also look to free agency for some help. They should not seek out a veteran, but they might be able to pick up a two-way player for the lower lines.

At first blush — I’ll be doing comprehensive free agency posts later — I like the looks of a couple pending UFAs, center Greg McKegg and winger Gabriel Dumont, both from the Tampa Bay Lightning. McKegg is scouted as an offensive-minded playmaker with some two-way ability. Dumont is scouted as a versatile agitator with good checking qualities.

Both are depth players. Colorado could make low-risk offers to them — meaning not a lot of money nor term. They could help fill in the lower ranks of forwards while the Avs wait for players such as J.C. Beaudin and Julien Nantel to develop.

Evaluating the Defensive Corps

Speed and skill are important in the defensive corps, too. However, defensemen should also be able to, you know, defend. For too long the Colorado Avalanche have faced skewed shot differentials because of inadequate defense. (Also see above about the need for two-way acumen.)

Here’s what the team has so far:

• Erik Johnson: Elite skater, solid two-way play, grit, leadership
• Tyson Barrie: Dynamic skater, creative playmaking, offensive prowess
• Nikita Zadorov: All-around defense, long stride and reach, dominating physical play
• Mark Barberio: Offensive instincts, good puck movement, solid skating

The team recently bought out Francois Beauchemin’s contracts, so that’s that. I fear they may lose Barberio in the Expansion Draft.

The Colorado Avalanche also have Patrick Wiercioch as a pending restricted free agent. He didn’t contribute enough to the team last season for me to see them making a qualifying offer.

Colorado has also been building up its defensive depth. The team has the following players who could potentially line up next season:

• Andrei Mironov: Physical play, good skating and puck skills, stay-at-home defense
• Chris Bigras: Shutdown play, good puck movement, good hockey sense
• Anton Lindholm: Physical game, good hockey sense, good puck movement
• Sergei Boikov: Shutdown play, nasty streak
• Nicolas Meloche: Good size, two-way play, offensive acumen, well-rounded play

Mironov has been pretty clear that he didn’t leave the big bucks (or rubles) in the KHL to play in the AHL, so he looks pretty good to be on the roster next season. Bigras, if he conditions well this summer, and Lindholm could also make the roster next year.

The Colorado Avalanche also have nasty shutdown defenseman Duncan Siemens. He’s a pending RFA. The team made him a qualifying offer last season then left him in San Antonio the whole year. At best they’ll do the same this year — or finally cut the kid loose.

Needs for the Defensive Corps

The Colorado Avalanche may have been bolstering their depth at the position, so the future looks decent. However, they need help right now. If they lose Barberio, they have three defensemen and a rotation of green prospects, though both Lindholm and Bigras have NHL experience. Even with Barberio they have just four d-men and a rotation of young bucks.

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This is why I don’t see the point in trying to draft a defenseman with the fourth-overall pick, not even Miro Heiskenan. Heiskenan is going to be a great player, but he still has at least a couple years of development ahead of him. Like I said, the Avs need a d-man for right now.

Either Colorado is going to have to trade for a decent defenseman — and that’s very likely (defenseman Mikhail Sergachev just got traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning, so he’s off the table) — or they’re going to have to acquire one in free agency.

Now, if the they want a stud defenseman, they definitely need to trade for him. Stud d-men rarely hit free agency. And when they do, they’re overpriced.

However, Colorado has decent cornerstones in Johnson and Barrie, with a side of Zadarov for physicality and energy. If they truly want to stop the skewed shot differential, they need a shutdown defender. If they could find a d-man with some offensive talent, or at least two-way acumen, that would be a boon, too.

Again, no one over the age of, say, 27 should be skating in burgundy and blue for the first time next season — and the players around 30 in Avs colors should be limited to a choice few like Johnson and Varlamov.

As with forwards, the list here of potential RFAs Colorado should consider isn’t going to be comprehensive. However, two players continue to catch my eye, 26-year-old Dmitry Kulikov (Buffalo Sabres) and 26-year-old Michael Del Zotto (Philadelphia Flyers.)

Dmitry Kulikov is scouted as a talented, two-way defenseman with excellent mobility. He likes to play aggressively. Michael Del Zotto is scouted as a great skater with good puck movement. He’s solid on the power play.

Unfortunately, neither player is going to come cheap. Kulikov is coming off a contract with an AAV of $4.3 million, and Del Zotto off a contract with an AAV of $3.87 million. Both are likely looking for a pay raise in free agency.

The Colorado Avalanche are freeing up a fair amount of money this summer — somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million. Zadorov is going to take a chunk of that, but the team can still afford to throw a little extra money at a good defenseman.

Both have a similar amount of strengths and weaknesses in their game. However, either one would help bolster the Avs blueline while the team waits for some of its prospects to develop.

Evaluation of the Goalie Situation

The Colorado Avalanche have three goalies under contract after free agency hits. They have starter Semyon Varlamov, who’s a talented and athletic goalie. However, he’s inconsistent and has been battling chronic injury most of his his career.

They have backup Calvin Pickard, who’s less talented but more consistent than Varlamov. Finally, they have rookie Spencer Martin, a technically sound goalie who still needs work.

Colorado could potentially lose one of their goalies — specifically Pickard — in the Expansion Draft.

The team drafted a goalie last season, Adam Werner. However, he’s signed on to stay in Sweden through 2019.

To add a little filip to the situation, goalie coach Francois Allaire has moved on. He’s part of what made Patrick Roy a Hall of Famer and helped Varlamov achieve his Vezina finalist season.

Needs in the Goalie Situation

The Colorado Avalanche need to keep both Semyon Varlamov and Calvin Pickard. That’s the only way they have anything resembling goalie depth. That’s also why they should expose Varlamov in the Expansion Draft — Las Vegas is unlikely to pick him when there will be better prospects for the price.

Colorado should probably also consider picking up a goalie in this year’s draft. There are some decent options. For North American goalies, Jake Oettinger, Keith Petruzzelli, Ian Scott, and Michael DiPietro show promise. On the European side, I like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Olle Eriksson Ek.

If they’re feeling the goalie squeeze, the Avs could also pick one up in free agency. The goalie situation isn’t great, but if they’re just looking for a backup to the backup, they might consider a youngster like 25-year-old Jean-Francois Berube of the New York Islanders. If they need a legit backup, Mike Condon of the Ottawa Senators is available.

Final Blueprint for the Colorado Avalanche Rebuild

The Colorado Avalanche are at least a couple years out from playoff contention — we just have to accept that. However, they can save themselves from being irrelevant if they start rebuilding with vision.

First of all, this draft is one of the most important in team history — probably even more important than when they selected Nathan MacKinnon first-overall in 2013. It’s not a franchise-making draft, but it’s a team-building one for the Avs.

To have a successful draft, the Avalanche need to pick up a two-way player in the first round and and offensive (or at least two-way) defenseman in the second round. The rest of their picks should be spent on best-available players who fit their speedy, skilled mold. They may consider picking up a goalie, too, if a favorable situation presents itself.

Colorado also needs to cut as much of the fat from the current roster as possible, meaning Patrick Wiercioch and Mikhail Grigorenko. When it’s not possible, unsuitable players must be relegated to the fringes.

To be successful in free agency, Colorado should consider picking up a depth two-way forward and a decent offensive or two-way defenseman. Neither should be over the age of 27.

Finally, if they’re going to trade a core player — specifically Matt Duchene — the return has to be sweet. Joe Sakic has to get a handful of building blocks for the foundation of the team. Either a stud defenseman and a prospect/draft pick or an NHL-ready defensman, a prospect or two, and a draft pick. He’s been aiming for the stars, and that has to keep being the case.

Next: Best Case Scenario for the Offseason

It’s frustrating and a little sad to see the once-might Colorado Avalanche relegated to irrelevancy. I imagine Edmonton Oilers fans felt the same. Colorado has it in them to return the team to contention with at least the majority of the current core intact. They simply have to do nothing but rebuild strictly to their blueprint.