Colorado Avalanche: Worst Case Scenario for the Offseason
The Colorado Avalanche have a very important offseason ahead of them. It could also be a disastrous one if they don’t make the right moves.
The Colorado Avalanche have been pretty silent so far this offseason, which isn’t too unusual. In fact, according to the Denver Post, the team won’t be identifying the players on the Expansion Draft protected list ahead of the June 17 deadline
The Colorado Avalanche are going to do something between now and training camp in September. At bare minimum, they’re going to make selections at the 2017 NHL Draft and lose a player in the Expansion Draft.
Maintaining the status quo would be bad. The team finished at 48 points last season for a reason — and that reason wasn’t a certain Quebecois Hall of Fame goalie who resigned in the middle of the last offseason. Actually, there were a lot of reasons the team finished dead-last by a 20-point margin.
Therefore, making some disastrous moves in the offseason could cripple the team even worse. A season of winning only 22 games is bad. Winning fewer than that is even worse — and this franchise has done that. Imagine if the team continued to regress because of moves made in this offseason.
Well, that’s what we’re going to do. Hopefully writing it out will make it not happen.
Current Contracts
Maintaining the status quo is the disastrous option here. The Colorado Avalanche have three bad contracts:
- Carl Soderberg: $4.75 million, 3 more seasons
- Francois Beauchemin: $4.5 million, 1 more season
- Blake Comeau: $2.4 million, 1 more season
There’s no way Colorado is unloading all three of those contracts. Of the three, Comeau’s is the least onerous. That’s not a ton of money, and Colorado could just make him a healthy scratch on most nights.
It’s going to be almost impossible to get rid of Carl Soderberg, unless Colorado bribes the Las Vegas Golden Knights to take him in the Expansion Draft. I’m not convinced it would be worth it, though.
We all want to see Francois Beauchemin go. Colorado could buy him out. But Avs insider Adrian Dater thinks they won’t. And that means they have to protect him in the Expansion Draft.
In other words, this is the worst case scenario that might just come to pass.
To add a little vinegar to the mix, Colorado may not be able to sign their 2013 draft, defenseman Will Butcher.
Finally, losing defenseman Nikita Zadorov, a pending restricted free agent, to the KHL would be a disaster. It’s not ideal, but I’d rather see Colorado overpay him.
Expansion Draft
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For me, there are two players the Colorado Avalanche can ill-afford to lose in the Expansion Draft, yet they’re exactly the players the Vegas Knights may target.
First of all, Adrian Dater is convinced the Avalanche are going to protect starting — but often-injured and overpriced — goalie Semyon Varlamov. So, the Vegas Knights may snap up Calvin Pickard as a cheap but reliable back up to their certain starter, Marc-Andre Fleury.
That’s bad for the Colorado Avalanche because that leaves Colorado goal tending in the hands of the very green Spencer Martin when Varlamov’s groin inevitably gives out again. Plus, there’s no backup to Martin unless they sign last year’s draft pick, Adam Werner.
The Colorado Avalanche almost certainly have to expose defenseman Mark Barberio. And losing him would be worse in some ways than losing Pickard. Barberio is in the new style of Colorado Avalanche hockey, and fleet, puck-moving defensemen are so hard to come by.
We can hope, as NHL.com suggests, that Vegas will pick Mikhail Grigorenko, but I just don’t think so.
The deadline for teams’ protected lists is June 17. The Las Vegas Golden Knights have until June 20 to make their selections. The results will be announced during the NHL awards show on June 21.
Entry Draft
It would be good if the Colorado Avalanche drafted with vision in the 2017 NHL Draft. We could hope they have a blueprint for their rebuild and the players they need to rebuild to that blueprint. Then it will be a matter of drafting the players in each round toward that plan.
It’s also fine if the Avalanche play it safe. They need help at every position. If they choose the best player available at a chosen position in each round, that will suffice, too.
What can’t happen is the Colorado Avalanche go the way of the Edmonton Oilers for several years and just choose best available regardless of the position. Then they’ll end up with a bouquet of the same kind of forwards and no other depth otherwise.
The worst case scenario is the Avs go all Colorado Avalanche and try to get too cute. They shouldn’t be looking for the unseen diamond in the rough. Nor should they draft significantly lower than a given selection because they think they see something in a player they want. No offense to Connor Bleackley, but, yes, I mean him.
So don’t choose Cale Makar with the fourth-overall draft pick. You’re not getting a Connor McDavid at that spot. But that doesn’t mean you need to get a glorified Tyson Barrie either.
The 2017 NHL Draft starts at 4:00 pm on June 23 (first round) and starts at 7:00 am on June 24 (second through seventh rounds). The entire draft will be televised on NBC Sports Network.
Free Agency
As I said in my best case scenario post, for the love of hockey, Colorado Avalanche, do not pick up any veterans in free agency.
The worst case scenario would be for the Avs to think they need their typical “veteran presence.” For instance, the Avalanche shouldn’t think they need to pick up 31-year-old Kyle Quincey for some help in the blueline or 33-year-old Patrick Eaves to give the forwards a veteran presence.
Seriously, don’t throw even a one-year contract at one of these players, much less the usual three-year deal Colorado loves to dole out to veterans. And, yes, that includes the exalted, but 36-year-old, John-Michael Liles.
No, don’t even offer these vets a PTO. Because they’ll show off the last vestiges of their skill, you’ll sign them, and we’ll have yet another anchor weighing the youngsters down.
The Colorado Avalanche are in a rebuild. They should be playing their youngsters to groom them for eventual success.
Trade
The absolute worst thing the Colorado Avalanche could do, something that could set them back for years, is to trade center Matt Duchene badly. It’s bad enough that they’re likely to trade the man who’s been their best player for years. However, if they fail to get adequate return, the entire front office should just resign.
It’s been said time and again that GM Joe Sakic wants a prospect, a draft pick and an NHL-ready defenseman for Matt Duchene. He must not deviate from this. He must accept no less than a first rounder, a decent defenseman and a decent prospect. No second rounders or later. No untried prospects in lieu of a proper defenseman. No low-pick prospects.
There really is no reason to trade Matt Duchene. So, he had a bad season. He had a career-best 30 goals the previous season and a career-best 70 points three seasons ago. Therefore Sakic can’t afford to trade him badly — no one else still on the Avalanche has actually bested those numbers.
And if Sakic absolutely must trade Duchene, keep him out of the Central Division. Even better, trade him to an Eastern Conference team. Former Avs tend to do so well against Colorado. We can’t afford to have Matt Duchene shining against the Avs three to five times a season.
Next: Potential Tyson Barrie Trade Destinations
The unfortunate truth is that at least a few of these actions, or inactions, will come to pass. If they all come to pass — especially a bad trade that takes Matt Duchene out of Colorado with too little in return — the team could be crippled for years to come.