Colorado Avalanche: Ranking the Top 5 Prospects for #4 Pick
Like any team, the Colorado Avalanche have a list of players they want to take in the 2017 NHL Draft. These five prospects are likely their top choices.
The Colorado Avalanche will be selecting fourth-overall in the 2017 NHL Draft. The Colorado Avalanche had the worst regular season record by a margin of 20 points. The Colorado Avalanche must nonetheless wait until #4 to make a selection at the draft.
Clearly some of us are trying to come to terms with that.
In any case, as GM Joe Sakic pointed out in the Denver Post:
“We’re confident with this draft, that there’s going to be a good player there at four.”
This year’s draft has been called less than stellar. The top two picks, Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, are thought to be more like numbers three and four in the previous two years’ drafts.
More than that, after Patrick and Hischier, no one can really agree on a draft order. In truth, it’s thought that from the #3 pick on (which belongs to the Dallas Stars, who finished with 31 more points than the Avalanche, not that I’m bitter), teams will be drafting for need.
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The knee-jerk reaction is that the Colorado Avalanche need a defenseman. That is certainly true, and they may consider drafting a defenseman with the fourth-overall pick.
However, the team was also dead-last in goal differential last year with an ugly -112. Obviously they need some scoring help, too.
As the current roster stands, the team has two legitimate top-two centers in Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon with Tyson Jost waiting in the wings. I wouldn’t exactly call that deep, especially if Colorado really is going to trade Duchene. So, a centerman might be a desire. I don’t think they’d turn their nose up at a scoring winger either.
The new team commitment seems to be sacrificing size for speed (if necessary — I’m not saying they’re deliberately going smaller). That’s not to say size is completely devalued, just that speed is more important. Backchecking is also important, tough I wouldn’t go so far as to say two-way play is prioritized by the team.
Those observations are based on interviews by Joe Sakic (speed) and Jared Bednar (backchecking) as well as my own observations of moves the team made this year.
So, with those ideals in mind, let’s look at how the Colorado Avalanche may have ranked players they could potentially choose at #4. Since Patrick and Hischier are highly unlikely to drop to that position, I’m not going to add them to the list.
5. Eeli Tolvanen
2016-17 Team: Sioux City Muskateers (USHL)
Date of Birth: April 22, 1999 (18 years old)
Ht: 5’10”
Wt: 179 lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Left wing Eeli Tolvanen is something of an outlier , but I’d be surprised if he weren’t on the Colorado Avalanche’s radar. He’s scouted in every report as having top-end speed. But he’s not just known for being fast — he’s also a dynamic skater. Ben Kerr of Last word on Sports observes:
“He can also make a number of quick cuts, and uses strong agility to beat his man one-on-one.”
Tolvanen is known for having high-end stick skills — Kerr calls him a “pure sniper who scores goals in a variety of different ways.” Future Considerations describes Tolvanen as a player who “likes to shoot and has an impressive accurate shot with an absolutely deadly release.” He’s also known for being good on both the forecheck and the backcheck.
Eeli Tolvanen is scouted to go as high as #4 or drop as low as #17, which is where ISS Hockey has him ranked. He’s #8 for North American skaters.
In my draft profile of Tolvanen, I pointed out that he seems like a very exciting offensive prospect for the Colorado Avalanche. I’d love to see his fast skating and elite stick skills on a line with MacKinnon or Duchene — or even our ferocious little forechecker, Tyson Jost.
Since the Avalanche have been clear about wanting speed and elite skill, I think he’s on their radar. However, he’s ranked lower than some other prospects, so he may not be the number-one player the team wants. What’s more, he’s already promised to play for Boston College next season. Whether a player may be available immediately could be a factor for the Avs.
4. Miro Heiskanen
2016-17 Team: HIFK (Liiga)
Date of Birth: July 18, 1999 (17 years old)
Ht: 6′
Wt: 174 lbs
Position: Defenseman
Shoots: Left
If the Colorado Avalanche draft a defenseman in the first round, their top prospect is sure to be Miro Heiskanen.
The young (just 17) defenseman is already playing in the top men’s league in Finland. He’s considered an elite two-way defenseman with excellent skating and agility. Elite Prospects calls him a “confident puck mover with no issues running a play himself and starting a transition up-ice.”
Future Considerations praises his speed and lateral agility. The site also calls attention to his “impressive vision” and “strong awareness defensively.”
Dennis Schellenberg of Hockey Prospectus remarks that Heiskanen “processes the game extremely well under pressure.”
In short, he’s consistently smart with the puck.
As I stated in my draft profile of Miro Heiskanen, he’s my favorite kind of defenseman. I like players who are good in every zone and who play smart with the puck.
In general, though, the Colorado Avalanche have been shying away from drafting defensemen high in the draft — the Duncan Siemens debacle (11th-overall in 2011, 3 NHL games) certainly hasn’t sweetened them to the idea. And though fourth-overall isn’t as high as we all wanted, it’s still pretty high.
What’s more, it’s thought the Dallas Stars actually will draft Heiskanen with their (stolen) third-overall pick. So, though the Avalanche are sure to have him on their draft list (and probably higher than Tolvanen), it seems unlikely they’ll actually draft him.
3. Gabriel Vilardi
2016-17 Team: Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Date of Birth: August 16, 1999 (17 years old)
Ht: 6’3″
Wt: 192 lbs
Position: Center
Shoots: Right
Center Gabriel Vilardi is expected to go in the top-five in this year’s draft. He’s a top contender for the #3 spot, but he could drop as low as #5.
If the Colorado Avalanche choose best player available, that man may be Gabriel Vilardi.
What holds him back from being a shoe-in for the Avs — besides the fact the Stars may select him — is that he’s not known for having elite skating skills. The general consensus is that he skates well for someone his size. He’s considered more quick and powerful than speedy and agile.
That said, he’s scouted well because he’s got a strong two-way game. Scouting reports and his own coach point out that he’s a Corsi darling because he elevates his teammates.
As Ben Kerr of Last Word on Sports describes Vilardi, he uses his long reach and puck handling to get the puck to teammates, making him an excellent playmaker. He’s also great on the backcheck.
Matt Ryan at NHL Central Scouting describes Vilardi thus:
“He’s very composed with the puck, and uses his vision and playmaking ability to influence the game in all three zones. He excels below the dots in the offensive zone where he uses his size and reach to dictate the play and generate scoring opportunities.”
As I pointed out in my draft profile of Gabe Vilardi, he doesn’t precisely fit the Colorado Avalanche mold. However, the team has been moving more toward analytics, so that may entice them.
What’s more, of all the players on this list, Gabriel Vilardi seems the most ready and free to jump into the NHL quickly. That, along with his being the best available might get him drafted by the Avs — but they may have a couple other players ahead of them on their list.
2. Casey Mittelstadt
2016-17 Team: Eden Prairie High School
Date of Birth: November 22, 1998 (18 years old)
Ht: 6’1″
Wt: 201 lbs
Position: Center/Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Forward Casey Mittelstadt should go top-five — The Draft Analyst even has him going in the #1 spot, though he’s more commonly ranked between numbers three and five.
What’s unfortunate for scouting purposes is that Mittelstadt chose to play high school hockey rather than major juniors or college — he was actually supposed to go to the University of Minnesota in lieu of his senior year of high school. That means Casey hasn’t been playing with or against the best talent in his age group.
That said, Casey Mittelstadt is still considered a dominant player. Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects calls him “the complete package of speed, skill, and hockey sense.” Joe especially praises his puck skills, creativity and compete level.
Peter Harling of Dobber Prospects considers Mittelstadt might have the most skill in his draft class. Harling adds:
“He has elite puck control skills, is a big strong player and has excellent vision and play making skill to compliment his lethal shot.”
As I pointed out in my draft profile of Casey Mittelstadt, his compete level and tenacity would be a boon to the team. However, Mittelstadt is committed to playing for the University of Minnesota next season.
That and the fact that Casey Mittelstadt played below his level last season might give the Colorado Avalanche pause in using their #4 pick on him. That’s why he didn’t make the #1 spot despite recording 1.94 points per game last season. Yet he has the skating and stick skills the team is looking for, which is why I think the team might consider him over Gabe Vilardi.
1. Owen Tippett
2016-17 Team: Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
Date of Birth: February 16, 1999 (18 years old)
Ht: 6’2″
Wt: 203 lbs
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Right wing Owen Tippett is considered to have the best shot in his draft class. Naturally, he’s known as a “scoring winger” and a “pure sniper.”
Tippett also offers top-end skating skills. Future Considerations praises his agility and balance, adding:
“[Tippett] gets around the ice well, showing quick jump acceleration to generate space and speed coming down the ice on the rush.”
Between his shot and his speed, it’s no wonder Tippett is considered to feature excellent scoring ability. According to Ben Kerr of Last Word on Sports, Owen can essentially score from anywhere.
What holds Owen Tippett back a little is that his defense is considered to still be a work in progress. He’s pretty good on the forecheck, but his backchecking needs development.
As I pointed out in my draft profile of Owen Tippett, his speed and elite offensive skills make him attractive to the Colorado Avalanche. Tippett is scouted to go between #4 to #11.
Owen Tippett is a tough call. He seems to have a high ceiling, even if he might not be quite ready to jump into the NHL right away. However, he’s right in the Colorado Avalanche’s preferred mold of player, unlike Gabe Vilardi. He’s been playing at an appropriate level for his development, unlike Casey Mittelstadt. That’s why I think the Colorado Avalanche have him first on their list of prospects for the #4 pick.
My Preferences
I like to say that I don’t have a direct line to GM Joe Sakic, so it’s not like my opinion matters. Of course, Patrick Roy did have a direct line, and it still didn’t matter, so…
Anyway, I wrote a draft profile on all of the above players and reconsidered them for this list. In doing the research, I certainly developed my own preferences. And, hey, for all I know I tapped into the Colorado Avalanche’s mind set.
Therefore, as an armchair scout, this is how I’d make the list:
- Gabriel Vilardi: The Colorado Avalanche need a combination of player types. I liked what I saw when I watched him play — he’s a responsible player who makes his presence known on the ice. I also like that he elevates his teammates’ play — to me that gives him an edge in modern hockey.
- Eeli Tolvanen: He is so exciting to watch. His dynamic skating and soft hands seem like such a good fit for the new direction the team is going in. I really want to see him on a line with Nathan MacKinnon.
- Owen Tippett: It was tough choosing Tolvanen over Tippett because O.T. is also exciting to watch. Maybe there’s just a little less dynamism to his skating than Eeli’s, but, boy, is his stickhandling beautiful. I will not be sad if Colorado chooses Tippett.
- Casey Mittelstadt: Watching Mittelstadt play, his style reminds me a little of Erik Johnson’s, so it pains me to drop him to #4 on my personal draft list. Honestly, I wish he’d played college hockey last year so his development would be farther along — and he’d be NHL-ready sooner. However, Casey is a very good player, and I think he could well be the one the Avs choose.
- Miro Heiskenan: Here’s another player who plays hockey responsibly. He’s not the flashiest player on the ice, but he plays a 200-foot game. He could really benefit the Avalanche blueline, though he’d take some development time.
Next: Expansion Draft can Determine Entry Draft for Avs
A note on Cody Glass:
Cody Glass is a very good player. He’s known for great puck possession and great hockey sense. However, he’s not considered elite either in his skating or his stick handling. While he’s a great two-way center, that’s not what the Colorado Avalanche have been emphasizing in the new system.
Like I said in my draft profile of Glass, if this were two years ago, I’d have Cody Glass pegged as a prime prospect. However, he’s not scouted as high as #4, and he doesn’t fit the team’s new mold well enough for them draft below their position. Therefore, I speculate the team will choose one of the above players over Cody, and for my preferences that’s the right call to make.