Colorado Avalanche Will Win a Stanley Cup Before Detroit Red Wings

The Colorado Avalanche are already in a rebuild, which makes them in a better position than the middling Detroit Red Wings.

Neither the Colorado Avalanche nor the Detroit Red Wings are going to win a Stanley Cup this season. You know who else isn’t going to win a Cup this year? The Chicago Blackhawks. And the Minnesota Wild. There is a lot that is right in the world.

Unfortunately, the Wild and, especially, the Blackhawks could foreseeably win the Cup next year. If the Wild win, that would make things very bad in the world. But it’s highly unlikely. If the Blackhawks win yet again? Well, that’s just the world we live in.

Anyway, the point is that, while the Colorado Avalanche finished with a measly 48 points last season, they could be closer to Stanley Cup contention than the Detroit Red Wings. It’s partially because of those measly 48 points — it means the Avalanche have hit rock bottom and the Wings with their 79 points have not.

Apparently it’s just like alcoholism — you don’t start the path to getting better until you’ve hit the nadir of your life. Hey, we all knew the Avs were an addiction, and a bad one at that.

Far Away Detroit Red Wings

Recently the Hockey News held a roundtable about which teams were the farthest away from Stanley Cup contention. Those four teams were the New Jersey Devils, Vancouver Canucks, LA Kings and, yes, the Detroit Red Wings

As I suggested above, the overriding rationale was that all four teams are middling. They’re not in a rebuild, so they think they just have to move a few pieces around to be in contention.

However, the Red Wings are particularly handcuffed in what they can do. Their 36-year-old captain is locked in at $6 million through 2021. 33-year-old center Franz Nielson is on the books for $5.25 million through 2022.

Their 30-year-old alternate captain, Just Abdelkader, is locked in at $4.25 million through 2023. Their other alternate, 36-year-old Niklas Kronwall, is on the books for $4.75 million through 2019. There are a couple other expensive, long-term contracts that the Wings own. That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room.

Just like the Colorado Avalanche, the Detroit Red Wings have been struggling on defense. They have only one defensive prospect of note, Dennis Cholowski. He’s not looking to be a cornerstone defenseman.

Detroit does have some prospect talent in the pool. However, it’s not deep enough. And as long as veterans are locked in at high salaries for the long term, there’s not a lot of room for the prospects anyway.

Rock Bottom Colorado Avalanche

More from Mile High Sticking

So, yes, the Colorado Avalanche finished with an embarrassing 48 points last season. However, that has to signal to management that the team is in full rebuild. It has to, or we’re all doomed.

First of all, the Avs are in a better position contractually — yes, even with Carl Soderberg and Francois Beauchemin. At least $20 million is coming off the books this summer. There’s going to be at least six roster spots open from players leaving for free agency.

Plus, the Avalanche have the best chance at winning the first-overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, 17.936%. They won’t finish any lower than #4. Detroit has just a 6.713% at the first-overall and could finish with the #9 pick.

According to a different Hockey News article, the reason the Colorado Avalanche have the best positioning is because of trade value. Naturally, the article focuses on the usual suspects — namely Matt Duchene and Garbiel Landeskog. However, don’t discount moving defenseman Tyson Barrie in a trade.

For the trade to work, though, GM Joe Sakic has to be savvy. He has to stick to his guns in wanting a young defenseman (or maybe forward if he’s trading Barrie), a draft pick and a prospect. Because if Matt Duchene in particular is the return… I don’t care how mediocre his numbers were this year, the player has a very high ceiling.

I need to repeat something — Joe Sakic has to be savvy. Cap space getting freed up, roster spots being available and golden players available for trade mean nothing if Sakic isn’t shrewd. He could waste the cap space (or save it for Kroenke’s pockets), waste roster spots, and let a team steal away a bright young star.

In that case, we’d be worse off than we are now and more likely to watch the Red Wings lift the Stanley Cup before welcoming it here in Colorado again.

Next: Avs Could Trade 1st-Overall to Arizona

It’s all about the plan. There used to be a plan, and there’s evidence that there’s a plan again — get younger and faster. If Joe Sakic sticks to his guns, the Colorado Avalanche have a shot at becoming a relevant team again while the Detroit Red Wings slowly sink into irrelevancy.

And won’t that be a beautiful sight?

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