Colorado Avalanche: Fancy Stats, Part II

The Colorado Avalanche were the worst possession team in the NHL during the 2015-16 season, so why didn’t they finish last?

After my previous article about the importance of the Corsi stat, I was asked to further explain why the Los Angeles Kings didn’t win the Stanley Cup, why Toronto didn’t make the playoffs, and why the Colorado Avalanche didn’t get to pick Auston Matthews at this year’s NHL draft if Corsi is so dang important. Well, as fate would have it, there’s a stat just for that, and it’s called PDO.

What is PDO?

PDO is a team’s save percentage plus shooting percentage, and is used as a measurement of the raw skill and luck of a team over a season. A team with a high PDO either has awesome (or lucky) goaltending, great (or lucky) offense, or both. (Note: PDO doesn’t actually stand for anything. It comes from the person who created the stat).

Concerning the Colorado Avalanche

More from Mile High Sticking

The Colorado Avalanche have ranked near the top of the league in PDO for the past three years. While this could simply be an insanely lucky streak, the more probable conclusion is that the Avs have a very skilled team.

With some of the league’s best goaltending, a collection of skilled forwards, and several offensively-gifted defenders, the Avs often put the puck in the net when they decide to shoot, and our goalies save most of the onslaught of shots they face. This was especially evident in the #whynotus season, where Varlamov stood on his head, Mackinnon broke ankles, and Duchene racked up his career-high in points.

This skill and talent is what keeps Colorado in the hunt for the playoffs while being dwarfed in terms of possession.

Concerning L.A.

The Los Angeles Kings were the best Corsi team of the 2015-16 season, sitting atop the heap with a 56.4 CF%. In terms of PDO, however, they sat dead in the middle at 15th place. They were quickly ousted in the playoffs by the San Jose Sharks, who were no Corsi slouches themselves through the season, while also ranking higher in terms of PDO. It’s also important to note that, with the exception of game 5, every game in the series was a one-goal game, showing how evenly matched these two California teams were.

Concerning Toronto

Toronto ended the 2015-16 season tied for last in PDO, and ended up dead-last in the standings, despite having a better CF% than the Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Washington Capitals. The most likely reason for this is Toronto’s moves towards rebuilding.

Before the season even started, Phil Kessel, arguably their best player, was sent to Pittsburgh for prospects, draft picks, and depth players. The Leafs would continue shipping out talent throughout the season, such as Roman Polak, James Reimer, and Dion Phaneuf to move into a full rebuild. Eventually, the Leafs basically had two AHL teams, an army of promising prospects, and a mountain of draft picks.

I could be wrong, but I think this complete dump of skill contributed heavily to their low PDO numbers. Even with one of the best coaches in the league in Mike Babcock, Toronto lacked the skill and talent to compete in the NHL, despite playing some smart hockey.

Conclusion

Playing possession hockey isn’t everything, but neither is being ridiculously skilled or lucky. To find sustainable success that leads to consistent playoff births, teams need NHL-caliber players executing NHL-caliber systems.

Next: Stats Useful, but not Advanced

For our Avalanche, I think blaming the coach and management becomes easier when our PDO stats have been consistently high, and our Corsi consistently low.

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