Colorado Avalanche: Stacking up the Defensemen

It’s common knowledge at this point that the Colorado Avalanche are weak defensively.  But who is to blame?

The Colorado Avalanche give up far too many shots and too many goals against, and they give up leads. To most people, this means that the Avs’ defensemen are to blame. I mean, defense is their job, right? Well, not entirely.

If the team is constantly starting plays in their own zone and unable to maintain control of the puck, is that the defensemen’s fault? Not entirely.

The Colorado Avalanche started the play in their own zone 148 more times than the offensive zone – good for 2nd worst in the league. That is not entirely the defensemen’s fault.

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In my last article, I showed that the Avalanche forwards are not up to par with the rest of the league. We’ve essentially got a team full of 2nd and 3rd liners, which means a lot of pressure gets put on our defensemen and our goalies. In this article I’ll show you how our defensemen measure up to the rest of the league.

To do this, I’ve created my own overall rating for every defenseman in the league who played at least 200 minutes. I used a variety of stats and combined them all at different rates to come up with a number out of 100.

The stats I used, which are all even strength unless otherwise stated, are:
(source: war-on-ice)

• Percentage of time of ice compared to teammates.
• Points total.
• Points per minute played (minus 2nd assists).
• Zone starts: defensive vs. offensive zone starts compared to the league average.
• Corsi: shots produced when the player is on the ice vs. off the ice compared to the league average.
• Percentage of shots taken that hit the net.
• Hits per minute played.
• Giveways per minute played.
• Takeaways per minute played.
• Penalties drawn vs. taken per minute played.
• Average teammates time on ice per game.
• Average opponents time on ice per game.
• Powerplay effectiveness (points + Corsi).
• Penalty kill effectiveness (goals against + Corsi).

To show you how accurate my numbers are, here are the top 10 defensemen in the NHL this season according to my rating:

I think those names speak for themselves (with the surprising exception of the last name). I think it’s clear my rating system for defensemen has a lot of merit.

But now let’s see the results for the Avalanche defense:

I’m curious about how people will react to these numbers – some of them certainly surprised me!

Erik Johnson: Yes, believe it or not, EJ is an elite defenseman (He has the same overall rating as Ryan Suter). He put up solid numbers in every single category, and he played against tougher competition and started in his own zone more often that most of the defensemen in the league.

A nice little surprise is that EJ actually leads the league in one underrated stat – percent of shots that actually hit the net. So many defensemen shoot a lot and always end up having it blocked. Not EJ. When he shoots, more often than not the goalie has to make a save.

Tyson Barrie: Like EJ, his numbers were solid this season if unspectacular. He played easier minutes overall, but he was also top 30 in the league in almost every offensive category. Tyson Barrie is a great offensive defensemen, but average otherwise. I honestly expected him to be rated worse than this defensively. I guess when he screws up it’s so noticeable for the Colorado Avalanche that we think it happens more than it really does.

Francois Beauchemin: Our time on ice leader managed to qualify as a top pair defenseman, but mostly through his hard work. He, like EJ, played incredibly difficult minutes all season long, yet his overall numbers aren’t bad.

He didn’t distinguish himself in any stat –his Corsi and takeway numbers were rather low, and too many of his points come from 2nd assists, but he also didn’t do as poorly as you’d expect of a 35-year-old who constantly has to play in his own zone against the best players in the league. Beauch turned out to be pretty much as advertised.

Nick Holden: Everyone’s favorite Colorado Avalanche whipping boy is not actually that bad. He rates as a very good 2nd pair defenseman, and that fits my own evaluation of him perfectly. He played somewhat difficult minutes, but managed to put up above average offensive numbers, and he had the 14th fewest giveaways per minute in the league. He was not good, however, on special teams, which I think comes as a surprise to no one.

Nikita Zadorov: When he was up, Big Z wasn’t bad. He wasn’t great either. His Corsi was better than any of our top four, but only good enough for 50th in the league. He wasn’t particularly bad at anything either except getting his shot on net.

Chris Bigras: The guy playing with EJ at times towards the end of the season was simply awful. He was given completely sheltered minutes, yet was unable to put up any offensive numbers. His only saving graces were that he rarely gave the puck way and was our best penalty killer. I expect a lot more from him next season.

Zach Redmond: Redmond was actually better than any of our top 4 in terms of points per minute and Corsi, but at the same time he played very sheltered minutes against weak competition. Overall though he was the best of our rotating cast of bottom pair guys, but that’s not saying much.

Gelinas, Bodnarchuk, Guenin, & Gormley: Based on the numbers, all four of these guys belong in the AHL. Eric Gelinas’ numbers are based on his time in New Jersey, so maybe he can be saved, but the rest do not belong on this team next season. Andrew Bodarchuk put up no great numbers in any category, Nate Guenin was only good at not taking penalties and killing them, and Brandon Gormley was decent at preventing shots but not much else.

Next: Colorado Avalanche Season: All Star Break to Stadium Series

So overall, the Colorado Avalanche defense is actually pretty decent. Our big failing was our bottom pair, where despite trying half a dozen different combinations, we never managed to find a legit NHL defensive pairing. That needs to improve next season.

With such a weak bottom pair, it forced coach Roy to rely too heavily on our top 4. A guy like Barrie should probably be getting mostly offensive zone starts, but because of our abysmal bottom pairings, he was forced to play a shut-down role much more than he should. Meanwhile, with nobody to share the load, Johnson and Beachemin had to play all the hardest minutes against the best players. A decent bottom pair should relieve some of the pressure on them.

Other than that, if we go into next season with a top 4 of Johnson, Barrie, Beauchemin and Holden, based on these numbers I think we can proudly compare that to almost any other top 4 in the league. That’s certainly not what I expected.