Colorado Avalanche Future: 3 Possible Scenarios
The Colorado Avalanche may make a significant change over the summer to re-form the team for playoff contention. Discover what that change may be.
The Colorado Avalanche are not mathematically eliminated from the 2016 playoffs. They are, however, spiritually eliminated. The team’s final chance was shot down at 8:54 of the third period when the Minnesota Wild scored a goal during the Avalanche’s power play while Colorado’s net was empty.
The team went down 4-0, and head coach Patrick Roy didn’t bother pulling the goalie again.
To give more indication that the Colorado Avalanche have essentially given up on the season, last year’s first-round draft pick, Mikko Rantanen, has been sent back to the San Antonio Rampage. The team would burn a year off his contract if they still thought they had a chance at making the playoffs.
Furthermore, forward Andrew Agozzino and defenseman Nikita Zadorov have been recalled from the AHL. They are ostensibly filling in for the missing Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon, neither of whom made the two-game road trip. Agozzino is probably on tryout, and Zadorov is getting some experience. Duchene and MacKinnon might be done for the year — no point rushing them.
So, we have seven more games to enjoy Colorado Avalanche hockey this season. To add a little fillip to the situation, this may be the last chance we get to see this inception of the team. I don’t believe management is going to blow up the team. However, the very definition of crazy is to keep trying the same thing but expecting a different outcome.
You can call owner Josh Kroenke and GM Joe Sakic a lot of things, but crazy or even stupid aren’t among that list. They’ve made periphery personnel changes while maintaining what they call the essential core. This off-season, we might see them actually move one of the pieces of that core in an attempt to jump start the heart of this team.
Let’s look at three scenarios in order from least to most likely plus one move I’m willing to bet the farm won’t happen.
Note: These aren’t things I want to see happen — they’re things that I think management might be considering.
Next: Star on the Move
Star on the Move: Matt Duchene
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I had initially been thinking Tyson Barrie might be a likely player to get moved in the off-season, but then I remembered his pending restricted free agency. It sounds like he might be going to salary arbitration, and he’s not going to get moved right after something like that — even if it gets sorted out in time for the beginning of next season.
Anyway, Matt Duchene’s name was linked to trade rumors at the beginning of the season. He had an extremely slow start, which is what spurred the rumors. He followed that with an historic November. Some say that made his trade value rise higher.
Indeed, Duchene has had a career-high in goals with 29. He was the Colorado Avalanche’s representative to the All Star Game. Crazily enough, he also has a team-friendly contract of $6 million per year through 2018-19 with no attachments — meaning he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. Madness.
Duchene could fetch the golden grail, a puck-moving defenseman with good size. General wisdom has it that the Colorado Avalanche need to shore up the blue line. What’s more, Duchene’s ever been a streaky player.
Here’s why I think this scenario is the least likely of the three: The return could never be big enough to mitigate the risk. This isn’t Paul Stastny or even Ryan O’Reilly revisited. Matt Duchene is borderline elite. He’s going to be a difference-maker. He’s going to have 30-goal seasons. It would be an unmitigated disaster to let him have those seasons with another team, especially when his contract is so team-friendly.
I’d be highly surprised — and greatly saddened — if this move came to pass. Whatever team we moved him to would win the trade from the get-go.
Next: Leadership Shift
Leadership Shift: Gabriel Landeskog
A major problem for the Colorado Avalanche is their mentality. They lack focus and a killer instinct. They can’t finish games.
When a team isn’t right in mentality, people look to the leadership. Gabriel Landeskog took over the captaincy from Milan Hejduk at the beginning of the 2012-13 season. He still holds the record as being the youngest player to ever be named an NHL captain.
People have long criticized Landeskog’s captaincy. Of course, one of the main complaints is his youth. Additionally, he catches a lot of flak because it’s well-known that he’s not critical in the locker room. Some people feel a sharp tongue makes a good hockey captain.
This year, Landeskog has also been the epitome of inconsistent. He’s gone for long stretches without scoring, which is relatively normal, but also long stretches without even being a force on the ice. What’s more, he’s been undisciplined, taking penalties that hurt the team. He’s even been suspended twice this year.
Trading Landeskog makes a huge impact on the team because of his captaincy. You make a huge statement when you trade the captain. It also gives the team a chance to promote one of the other worthy players, such as Erik Johnson, though Matt Duchene would be considered as well.
Landeskog’s just not the difference-maker that Matt Duchene is on the ice. Landeskog could also bring back a puck-moving defenseman. Unlike Duchene, Gabriel has a no-trade clause, but that just means he’ll have some say in which team he goes to.
While this scenario is more likely than a Duchene trade, I still find it highly unlikely. Colorado has more defensemen ready to move up than forwards. Trading Landeskog for a defenseman leaves almost as big a hole as trading Duchene.
Plus, I just don’t think management is ready to undo the full leadership yet. Gabriel Landeskog is young — just 23 — and he was always seen as a captain for the future. He’s barely striding into his prime as a player and as a leader. Again, you risk trading him to a team just in time for him to realize his full potential.
I think it would make more sense for the Colorado Avalanche to talk Jarome Iginla into moving. They wouldn’t get near the return, but he’s a leader on the team, too. That might make the same kind of spiritual statement without the huge upheaval.
Next: Pull the Goalie
Pull the Goalie: Semyon Varlamov
It has long been a habit in hockey to pull the goalie at the last minute — literally — to give the team a chance to get caught up. Head coach Patrick Roy has turned it into an art form, though. With him it’s a strategic move fraught with complexity and innuendo. He’ll pull the goalie halfway through the third and leave the net empty for five to ten minutes — I’m not exaggerating.
Trading goalie Semyon Varlamov could have the same kind of impact trading the captain or star would without quite the same risk. Varlamov has long been seen as the backbone of the team, their game-saver. Trading him makes the same kind of statement that pulling him in a game does — now you need to pull together and win the game yourself.
Now, this move seems unlikely because coach Roy has made no bones about backing Varlamov. He’s stated that Semyon is the team’s uncontested #1 goalie. He even credited Varlamov for being the catalyst for Roy’s winning the Jack Adams award for coaching.
That said, there have been some cracks in the support. Coach Roy still brings up the Stadium Series loss when Varlamov cost the team the game in the third period. Some of the team’s other third period losses can be laid at his feet as well. And coach Roy has said on more than one occasion that he’d liked to have seen Varlamov make this save or that.
What’s more, Varlamov only had that one good season. He’s like Matt Duchene — almost elite. He’s older than Duchene, though, at 27. Throughout his four years with Colorado, he’s been one of the most inconsistent players on a very inconsistent team. And the team often lives or dies according to his play.
Additionally Patrick Roy and goalie coach Francois Allaire have made the team deep in the goalie department. The very consistent Calvin Pickard is a restricted free agent this summer. It wouldn’t be too hard to sign Pickard for much less than Varlamov’s $5.9 million. Reto Berra has one more year on his contract, and he was also good for Colorado this season before a freak soccer injury took him out.
Patrick Roy was a young goalie once who backstopped a very demanding Montreal Canadiens team to Stanley Cup. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have the stones to rest the Colorado Avalanche on Pickard’s shoulders, especially when Berra would make a very capable backup?
I think a team that’s desperate for goal tending, like the Calgary Flames, would be willing to give up something decent for Semyon Varlamov. That’s why I call this the most likely of scenarios for change in the off-season.
And now to the move I’m willing to bet the farm won’t happen.
Next: Cut Off the Head
Cut Off the Head: Patrick Roy
When a team does poorly, especially when it under-performs, the coach is often the first person to take the blame. Already last season some people were grumbling that Patrick Roy is an ineffective coach. However, he may have gotten some slack because of all the injuries.
This season, the grumblings are much louder. The Colorado Avalanche are looking to miss the playoffs again. That Why Not Us season looks to be an anomaly.
If problems of focus and consistency can be blamed on a captain, they most certainly can fall at the coach’s feet as well. Patrick Roy hasn’t always had the best systems, and sometimes it seems his players don’t listen to him. If a coach has lost the locker room, he’s ineffectual, right?
Here’s why I say there’s no way in hell GM Joe Sakic is firing Patrick Roy:
Stay with me — there’s more to it than that.
Josh Kroenke ultimately makes the decisions because, hey, he owns the team. However, he’s always been content to dabble with his other team, the Denver Nuggets. It’s highly unlikely he’s putting pressure on Joe Sakic as long as all these opponent fans can keep filling up his arena — and Colorado as a destination state make that a certainty.
Therefore, Joe Sakic would be little inclined to fire a man with whom he won the Stanley Cup not once but twice. That’s a tight brotherhood, and breaking it is probably something like divorce. Sakic simply has no reason to do so.
I repeat: no reason. Not only is Patrick Roy insulated, but he doesn’t deserve to be on the hot seat. A lot of the Colorado Avalanche’s problems could be laid at Sakic’s feet as well as Roy’s, especially when it comes to personnel.
That said, I also firmly believe Roy and Sakic have a plan on which they’re working together. Roy has one more year on his coaching contract with an option for a fifth. I believe Roy and Sakic’s plan expects to come to fruition by the end of that fourth year.
Therefore, I bet the farm that Patrick Roy isn’t getting moved off the coaching seat this off-season. He and Sakic are in this together.
Over the summer — especially as contracts, drafts and free agency get sorted out — I’ll go more in-depth into what Sakic and Roy’s plan is for the team. I’ll also draft how far they’ve come.
So, the Colorado Avalanche are still disappointing compared to what we want them to be. We, Avs Nation, may see a big change unfold over the summer. However, the changes might not be as big as we all expect.