Colorado Avalanche: 4 Reasons for Optimism

The Colorado Avalanche still have a chance at the playoffs. Here are four reasons for fans to be optimistic.

The Colorado Avalanche are still in the playoff hunt. Unfortunately, after a baffling mediocre performance from Jonathan Quick and the rest of the LA Kings, the Minnesota Wild took over the final playoff berth. However, for once, glory of glories, Colorado has a game in hand.

We have some tough knocks to overcome. Both of the Avalanche’s leading scorers, Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon, are out with knee injuries. According to head coach Patrick Roy, they’ll miss at least the next two games. Defenseman Eric Gelinas is also out with an injury, to his elbow. He’ll be out indefinitely.

That said, it’s not time to hang up the season yet. Colorado won two games without captain Gabriel Landeskog, who was out with a suspension. One of those wins came without Duchene as well. Additionally, Colorado beat the Edmonton Oilers without Duchene or MacKinnon in the lineup.

In other words, the Avalanche have won with exactly this lineup that they have now.

It’s not going to be easy to make the playoffs. However, let’s look at why we, Avs Nation, should be optimistic.

Next: Tyson Barrie

#1: Tyson Barrie Has Been Scoring

When Tyson Barrie scores a goal, everyone in the audience gets a puppy.

Ok, that’s not true. However, when Tyson Barrie earns even a point in a game, the Colorado Avalanche are far more likely to win. Except for the Stadium Series game against Detroit, every time since the beginning of December that Barrie has scored, Colorado has won. (That’s nine wins.)

What’s more, with Duchene and MacKinnon out for at least the next two games, Colorado needs its secondary scorers to step up.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Barrie has a little extra incentive to step up — he’s up for another contract at the end of the season. As of right now, he’s at 47 points and poised to earn 50 for the second time in a row and second time in his career. He’s already matched his career high of 13 goals.

And two of those goals came in the last two games.

So, remember, when Tyson Barrie scores a goal, Avs fans get better than a puppy — we should get an Avalanche win.

Next: Math

#2: Un-Advanced Stats

The Colorado Avalanche have nine games left. To make the playoffs, they’re probably going to have to win five of those. They’ve won 54% of their games — if they follow that win trajectory, that should happen. Of course, one of those wins really needs to be against the Minnesota Wild on Saturday.

The Minnesota Wild have eight games remaining. They’ve also now won 54% of their games. If they also follow their trajectory, then they’ll win four more, which means they’ll finish one point behind the Colorado Avalanche.

I’m not going to do advanced stats. I will point out that Minnesota wouldn’t even be in a playoff position if not for loser points — they have 11 overtime loss points compared to Colorado’s four. What’s more, in the event of a tie, the Avalanche have the first tie-breaker, the regulation-overtime wins (34 vs 32).

A little more math. If Colorado can manage to score three goals, they have a good chance of winning. Now, even without Duchene and MacKinnon, the other players should be able to grind out that many in at least five games.

Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie, Mikkel Boedker, Jarome Iginla — we’re all looking at you.

Next: Grinders

#3: Colorado is Built to Grind it Out

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Matt Duchene and, especially, Nathan MacKinnon are not pansies. I’ve seen Duchene hold off players with one arm as if he’s Peter Forsberg. And MacKinnon has been known to get a little chippy.

That said, they’re not exactly known as grinders — they’re skill players of the highest order. Without them to fall back on, Colorado is a bigger, grittier team. There’s not a single forward under 6-foot, 200 pounds and only two players overall smaller — and one of them is Tyson Barrie, our lucky Leprechaun.

The team is filled with power forwards and two-way defensemen. Each line has at least one power forward — Shawn Matthias on the first line, Blake Comeau on the second line, Andreas Martiensen on the third and Cody McLeod on the fourth. And that’s now counting the skilled power forwards, Gabriel Landeskog and Jarome Iginla.

All of the forwards are hard workers. Most finish their checks and fight their battles in the corners. These are players who can grind out wins against teams like their next two opponents, the Philadelphia Flyers and the Minnesota Wild.

On the back end, Colorado has a crew of defensemen who can jump into the play and get back to defend. Granted they can do so with varying levels of skill — Erik Johnson at the top and Andrew Bodnarchuk at the bottom. Nonetheless, these are players who are adept at blocking shots, laying big checks and even chipping in some goals.

From there the Avalanche have a rested Semyon Varlamov and an ever-vigilant Calvin Pickard ready to pick up the slack.

Next: Player Mentality