Colorado Avalanche: 4 Reasons for Optimism

#1: Tyson Barrie Has Been Scoring

When Tyson Barrie scores a goal, everyone in the audience gets a puppy.

Ok, that’s not true. However, when Tyson Barrie earns even a point in a game, the Colorado Avalanche are far more likely to win. Except for the Stadium Series game against Detroit, every time since the beginning of December that Barrie has scored, Colorado has won. (That’s nine wins.)

What’s more, with Duchene and MacKinnon out for at least the next two games, Colorado needs its secondary scorers to step up.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Barrie has a little extra incentive to step up — he’s up for another contract at the end of the season. As of right now, he’s at 47 points and poised to earn 50 for the second time in a row and second time in his career. He’s already matched his career high of 13 goals.

And two of those goals came in the last two games.

So, remember, when Tyson Barrie scores a goal, Avs fans get better than a puppy — we should get an Avalanche win.

Next: Math

#2: Un-Advanced Stats

The Colorado Avalanche have nine games left. To make the playoffs, they’re probably going to have to win five of those. They’ve won 54% of their games — if they follow that win trajectory, that should happen. Of course, one of those wins really needs to be against the Minnesota Wild on Saturday.

The Minnesota Wild have eight games remaining. They’ve also now won 54% of their games. If they also follow their trajectory, then they’ll win four more, which means they’ll finish one point behind the Colorado Avalanche.

I’m not going to do advanced stats. I will point out that Minnesota wouldn’t even be in a playoff position if not for loser points — they have 11 overtime loss points compared to Colorado’s four. What’s more, in the event of a tie, the Avalanche have the first tie-breaker, the regulation-overtime wins (34 vs 32).

A little more math. If Colorado can manage to score three goals, they have a good chance of winning. Now, even without Duchene and MacKinnon, the other players should be able to grind out that many in at least five games.

Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie, Mikkel Boedker, Jarome Iginla — we’re all looking at you.

Next: Grinders

#3: Colorado is Built to Grind it Out

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Matt Duchene and, especially, Nathan MacKinnon are not pansies. I’ve seen Duchene hold off players with one arm as if he’s Peter Forsberg. And MacKinnon has been known to get a little chippy.

That said, they’re not exactly known as grinders — they’re skill players of the highest order. Without them to fall back on, Colorado is a bigger, grittier team. There’s not a single forward under 6-foot, 200 pounds and only two players overall smaller — and one of them is Tyson Barrie, our lucky Leprechaun.

The team is filled with power forwards and two-way defensemen. Each line has at least one power forward — Shawn Matthias on the first line, Blake Comeau on the second line, Andreas Martiensen on the third and Cody McLeod on the fourth. And that’s now counting the skilled power forwards, Gabriel Landeskog and Jarome Iginla.

All of the forwards are hard workers. Most finish their checks and fight their battles in the corners. These are players who can grind out wins against teams like their next two opponents, the Philadelphia Flyers and the Minnesota Wild.

On the back end, Colorado has a crew of defensemen who can jump into the play and get back to defend. Granted they can do so with varying levels of skill — Erik Johnson at the top and Andrew Bodnarchuk at the bottom. Nonetheless, these are players who are adept at blocking shots, laying big checks and even chipping in some goals.

From there the Avalanche have a rested Semyon Varlamov and an ever-vigilant Calvin Pickard ready to pick up the slack.

Next: Player Mentality

#4: The Players are Psyched

I attended the Colorado Avalanche practice yesterday. What I saw was a pumped up team.

The players were relaxed and having a good time. At one point I watched Gabriel Landeskog take a shot on Semyon Varlamov, which he saved, so Landeskog skated around him and shot again. As the puck went in, the captain was just laughing. At another point I saw Erik Johnson take careful aim with the puck as Calvin Pickard was skating away from him — his shot knocked the stick right out of Pickard’s hand.

The point is, the team seems relaxed. These are players who get stuck in their own heads way too much. Indeed, I posited at the beginning of the season that they might choke sometimes. Well, how do you get over choking? By relaxing and playing the game you’ve played since you were a wee one.

It’s not that the players aren’t taking things seriously. Rather, they appear to be a team that has it’s sap up. Altitude TV host Kyle Keefe noticed the vibe:

During a game intermission, Erik Johnson remarked that as “super competitive guys,” these upcoming games are the type players live for. “It’s a lot of fun.” Well, that’s the attitude the Colorado Avalanche need to take into their upcoming games.

Next: Avs Need their Best Goalie Every Night

Being a fan of a team on the playoff bubble is nerve-racking — I’d feel a lot better if they were jockeying for position within the playoffs rather than just trying to make them. However, this is what we’ve been waiting for since the inglorious end of the Why Not Us season — not only another chance at the playoffs but redemption against the Minnesota Wild.

Let’s just be positive. #SuckItWild, and #GoAvsGo!