Colorado Avalanche: Success without Duchene and MacKinnon
The Colorado Avalanche can have success even without their leading scorers, Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon, but some key elements have to fall into place.
The Colorado Avalanche are missing their top two centers and leading scorers, Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon.
That would be the perfect reason for the team to check out — how can they be expected to clinch a wild card playoff berth without their two franchise players? After all, the team with which they’re fighting for that final spot is the Minnesota Wild, who’ve had the Avalanche’s number ever since exiting them in Game 7 of the 2013 playoffs.
Of course, the lack of Duchene didn’t stop the Colorado Avalanche from winning against the Calgary Flames on Friday. Missing both Duchene and MacKinnon didn’t stop the Avs from beating the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday.
Well, they’re going to need that gumption. According to head coach Patrick Roy, neither MacKinnon nor Duchene will play in the next two games.
Now, at this point in the season, with the Colorado Avalanche in the death struggle with their arch nemesis for the final playoff berth, and with just a point separating the two teams… well, every single game counts. Actually, that’s not true — every single shift counts right now. Since Duchene and MacKinnon average about 23 shift per game, that’s a whole lot of shifts that need to get covered.
What’s more, it’s not like the next two games are easy. The Avs are facing two teams who are in playoff death struggles of their own. The Thursday match is against the Philadelphia Flyers, who are trying to beat out the Detroit Red Wings for the final wild card spot in the east. And Saturday’s match? It’s against the selfsame Minnesota Wild.
Yippee-ki-yay, that’s a fun ride to take without your two best players, right? Well, the Colorado Avalanche showed they can have success without Duchene and MacKinnon, at least temporarily. Let’s see what needs to start happening and what needs to continue for that success to come to fruition.
Next: Leadership
Leadership Steps Up
The Colorado Avalanche had to play the game against the Calgary Flames without captain Gabriel Landeskog because he was serving the last game of his suspension for cross checking Anaheim Ducks forward Simon Depres. Colorado got him back for the Edmonton Oilers, and he made an immediate impact.
He started the scoring:
What’s more, he played with the intensity and skill you want to see in your hockey captain, especially in the face of adversity. As coach Roy said more than once after the Edmonton game, Landeskog’s line (with Blake Comeau and Carl Soderberg) was the best on the ice.
Though he doesn’t wear a letter, defenseman Erik Johnson has also been showing a lot of leadership. He’s been a nigh unstoppable force since the Anaheim Ducks game, recording two goals and two assists in five games. He’s also been integral in stopping opponents’ top lines — his defense is solid. No question he’s the leader of the blueline.
Now would be a great time, though, for both of Landeskog’s alternate captains to ramp up their games. While Iginla has been making plays, he hasn’t scored a goal himself in eight games. He has just 19 on the season, which is the worst since his sophomore season, 1997-98. He really needs to find his scoring touch for the next two games — and beyond.
Cody McLeod, the other alternate captain, isn’t known for his scoring touch. What does need to happen is he needs to show leadership in his restraint. He cannot take undisciplined penalties. Instead, he needs to fight if necessary — ensuring his opponent is a better player. A better scenario would be for him to yap and instigate until he draws a penalty. That’s Cody’ McLeod’s touch, the game he needs to play for the final stretch of the season.
Next: Physicality
Colorado Avalanche Get Physical
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Speaking of Cody McLeod and his ilk, now is the time for the Colorado Avalanche to channel their inner bruisers. They’re facing the gritty Philadelphia Flyers — a team literally known as the Broad Street Bullies — and the so-hated Minnesota Wild.
Now, as with McLeod, the line is fine. As fantastic as the Colorado Avalanche’s penalty killing is — 31 of the last 32 and 82.1% on the season — they cannot afford to keep losing momentum by having to go on the penalty kill.
The players simply have to follow coach Roy’s recurring advice to finish their checks. In fact, really only Duchene and MacKinnon were exempt from that advice to preserve their health as shooters. Now every Avalanche player needs to be a bruising force on the ice.
Besides McLeod, players who especially need to be nasty are Shawn Matthias, Andreas Martinsen, Francois Beauchemin, Andrew Bodnarchuk and Erik Johnson. I’d say Gabriel Landeskog, too, within reason — he’s now the Avalanche’s best player and, you know, suspensions. Plus, if Iginla isn’t going to score goals, then he needs to bruise bodies.
I’d also add Zach Redmond to that list, though physicality isn’t his strong suit. Then again, if he wants to make the team over Bodnarchuk, he’d better find his inner bully.
Next: Varlamov
Varlamov Heats Up
So much of the Colorado Avalanche’s success rests where it has always rested — on the goalie’s shoulders. And coach Roy has already named Semyon Varalmov as the starter for both games.
This makes me a little nervous. Varlamov is a spectacular goalie. He either makes the spectacular saves, or he flops spectacularly. As fellow writer Will Radke pointed out, advanced stats prove Varlamov lets in more soft goals (shots from bad angles) than either Calvin Pickard or Reto Berra.
No question, though, when he’s hot, he’s a brick wall. I wouldn’t say he was exactly hot against the Calgary Flames (90.9 save percentage), but he was pretty toasty against the Vancouver Canucks (96.6%).
The Colorado Avalanche can manage to grind out two or three goals without their leading scorers. They got three goals exactly in 11 of their last 17 games. Of course, they also allow a lot of shots on net — an average of 32 per game. Despite that, Varlamov is simply going to have to allow one or zero goals in the next couple games at least.
He has to get hot. Never mind his wonky groin and weird girlfriend distractions and whatever else makes him suck as a goalie sometimes. He has to be the Vezina finalist goalie he was in the 2012-13 season, at least for two games.
Next: Mentality
Shift-by-Shift Mentality
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — the Colorado Avalanche are ever a mental team. For whatever reason, the players lack mental discipline. They allow themselves to get upset when they make mistakes, and those mistakes escalate to eventually cost them games.
We saw it at the start of this season when they allowed the Minnesota Wild to score four goals in 5 minutes and 7 seconds in the third period to take Colorado from a 4-1 lead to a 5-4 loss. It has happened more times throughout the season.
This lack of mental discipline is largely why the Avalanche players have been pathetic in protecting third period leads. They allow the opponent to get back in the game, they freak out, they make more mistakes, they lose.
This cannot happen in the next two games. I repeat: This. Cannot. Happen.
Patrick Roy has been preaching “even keel” since his inaugural season as head coach. That’s mostly meant players shouldn’t be too high after wins or too low after losses.
The Colorado Avalanche players need to take an even keel approach to each shift. Mistakes are going to happen — they’re only human. Sometimes those mistakes are going to cost the team goals. Fine. The players need to shake it off when that happens, refocus, and go back out with the same confidence and intensity as before the gaffe.
There’s hope, Avs Nation. There can be nothing more demoralizing than allowing an opponent to score a short handed goal — except allowing them to score two short handed goals. On the same power play. Yet exactly that happened in the game against the Calgary Flames.
Rather than freak out, though, and let a now 2-1 lead by the Flames balloon, the Colorado Avalanche players seemed to clear their heads. They scratched back to tie the game and eventually win in the shootout — without their best shooters (Duchene and MacKinnon) to boot.
Next: Avs Injuries Force Different Game
That is the resiliency the Colorado Avalanche are going to need for at least the next couple games as Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon heal their knees. They have to find a way to grind out wins against both the Flyers and the Wild.
As always this late in the season — victory is the only option.