Colorado Avalanche, The Right Goaltender Is Crucial

The Colorado Avalanche have always relied on their goaltenders for spectacular play to win games. This means as the season winds down Roy needs to simply play the best goaltender.

The Colorado Avalanche’s goaltending problems have been discussed a lot on this site this season, and for good reason. On a team that readily trades chances, the Avs need good, if not great, goaltending to be competitors. I don’t particularly like that the team or the systems are built that way, but it’s certainly not going to change in the last 11 games of the season.

That is why in a year when Semyon Varlamov has been incredibly inconsistent, the Colorado Avalanche cannot afford to let themselves win and lose games by Varly’s confidence.

Earlier this week we examined adjusted save percentage, and why I believe it’s the stat for comparing the Avs goaltenders. Likewise, in today’s post we will only use 5 on 5 save percentage (so they will differ from the numbers found on NHL.com), and we will focus on adjusted save percentage as our primary guide. Specifically, we’ll compare the goaltenders save percentages from different danger zones. For review the danger zones are below.

There are three goaltenders the Colorado Avalanche can give a shot to get them into the post season. Let’s take a quick look at how each has performed this year. And more importantly, let’s look at who is the best candidate to potentially to try and carry the Avs into the playoffs.

Next: Semyon Varlamov

Semyon Varlamov

Starting with the goalie who’s seen the most games this year, and has drawn the most criticism only makes sense. Varly is one of the highest paid players on the Avalanche and yet is nearly tied with Pickard with a 92.45 save percentage on the year –over 2 points lower than Berra’s.

But this post is more than just about numbers, it’s about who the Colorado Avalanche should trust to take them to the postseason. We all know that Varlamov has had an incredibly inconsistent year and has single handedly cost the Avs a couple of games. At the same time he has shown flashes of brilliance and won the Avs games they had no business being in.

And part of that is being a goaltender — no goalie can stand on his head for an entire 82 game season. But at the professional level you expect your goalie to have an “off night” maybe a couple times a season. It seems like every third game Varly falls into that category.

This shows in Varlamov’s low danger shots save percentage where he is making only 96.56% of saves. And remember, those are only bad angle, far out shots. Most goaltenders save percentage in that category is around 98% with a couple touching 99%.

At the same time, Varlamov has been the worst of the Avalanche goalies in the most dangerous scoring areas with just an 83.59%. Again, this is only shots that have come from the slot or low slot. Consider this — Reto Berra’s save percentage from that area is a staggering 92.42% (where he is leading the league). The only place Varlamov outplays the other Avalanche goalies is in the medium danger areas where he leads both Berra and Pickard by 3 points. But that’s not enough to compensate for his abysmal low danger save percentage.

Part of the problem is he cheats off the post. Goalies are never supposed to  give up short side goals. If a player is going to score from a bad angle, you make him shoot it all the way across your body. Instead Varlomov leaves the short side open because he thinks there’s going to be a cross-ice pass and he wants to make the spectacular save on a tap in.

Instead, we get goals like this:

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Yet for now, it looks as if Varly will be the goalie to pull the Avs into (or keep the Avs out of) the playoffs. Head coach Patrick Roy still trusts him for his carrying of the team to a Central Division championship three years ago, even though all evidence since has pointed to that being an anomaly.

But with the important games coming up Varlamov is the only goaltender with true big game experience. He rose to prominence as a rookie goaltender in the 2009 playoffs where he acquired two shutouts in his inaugural series. In addition he played for the Russian Sochi team and played well for the Avalanche in their last playoff appearance.

So in his past, at least, Varly has shown himself to be a clutch goaltender. Yet the Avs fan base’s faith in him has largely disintegrated: his numbers this season for save percentage sit just at the league average (while both other Colorado Avalanche goaltenders are above that), and he also has the lowest adjusted save percentage out of any of the Avalanche goalies.

Next: Reto Berra

Reto Berra

On the complete other side of the trust spectrum is Reto Berra. He came to the Avalanche two years ago for next to nothing, and I was terrified. His fundamentals in Calgary were absolutely abysmal, (though my editor pointed out to me that he had never had a goalie coach before coming to North America).

Yet this year especially, his game has improved drastically, both in form and on paper. Earlier in the year, when he was on fire I did an in-depth breakdownn of the changes to his form since his Calgary days, but unfortunately we haven’t seen much of Berra lately. The details of his injury that apparently resulted from a pregame soccer match in late December are murky, but I would guess that the front office wasn’t too happy about something seeing as he was then waived — risking losing him to all other 29 teams for free- and sent down.

But if you go back to November, there were many people calling for Berra to join the mightily struggling Varlamov in a platoon — if not flat out replace him. At the time Berra had a 4-3 record and an amazing save percentage .953. Obviously, that wasn’t going to last long, but it shows that Berra is capable of going just as hot as Varlamov can.

And through the entire year Berra has the best save percentage and adjusted save percentage of any of the Avalanche goalies. In fact his adjusted save percentage in 5 on 5 is an outstanding 94.30%. And although he has 3 fewer games played then Pickard and 33 fewer then Varlamov, those numbers speak for themselves.

In addition, the most astounding part of Berra’s performance this year has been his high danger save percentage. On shots faced from the slot and right in front of the net Berra has a phenomenal save percentage of 92.42%. That’s better than both his own and Pickard’s medium danger save percentage! But that’s exactly what the Avalanche need with all the chances they give up low.

It’s disappointing that he got hurt, and frankly astonishing that he was waived, because it seems like he was on pace to have a breakout season. But as of now it seems we won’t see if he was just hot, as he’s been in the minors for nearly a month.

Next: Calvin Pickard

Calvin Pickard

Lastly, is Calvin Pickard. Whether he becomes the goalie of the Colorado Avalanche future or is caught in the wide net Calgary is planning on for recruiting goalies this offseason is still up for debate. However, in the last two years he has shown himself just as capable as stealing games as Varlamov and Berra.

However, the main reason I personally like Pickard is his low danger save percentage. From far away shots, where Varlamov has been struggling both to the naked eye and statistically, Pickard makes 98.63% of the saves. That’s huge in gaining a team’s confidence. Nothing kills a team’s momentum like having shots from the blue line or corners go in.

In addition, Pickard is the second goaltender in both medium danger and high danger shots doing his job, if not being as spectacular as Berra. Statistically, if the Colorado Avalanche purely want consistency out of their goaltending there’s no question that Calvin Pickard is the way to go.

There’s a reason why Pickard does so well against low danger shots: he never cheats. Whereas Varlamov has been caught cheating for a pass numerous times this season, if it’s a backdoor pass sometimes Pickard won’t even move because that’s not his job. The goalie’s job is to take away the shot and let the defenseman prevent the backdoor passes and rebounds, and Pickard excels at doing his job.

Skip to the 35 second mark of the video, and watch Pickard’s play. There’s no gaps for the bad angle shot to go in, because the Colorado Avalanche have 4 guys back. That’s just awful defense, and Pickard is doing his job, but compare that to say Varlamov at the outdoor game who was caught cheating off his post 2 or 3 times and the difference in mentality is apparent.

However, Pickard has barely any NHL experience, let alone in the heat of a playoff race. It means a lot that the Avs were willing to risk losing Berra to waivers to keep Pickard up the NHL, but that still doesn’t mean that Roy is ready to hand the season over to Pickard yet. At the same time, I don’t want to see the Colorado Avalanche’s season defined purely by how Semyon Varlamov feels that day.

Next: Who Should Own The Net