Colorado Avalanche, The Right Goaltender Is Crucial

Semyon Varlamov

Starting with the goalie who’s seen the most games this year, and has drawn the most criticism only makes sense. Varly is one of the highest paid players on the Avalanche and yet is nearly tied with Pickard with a 92.45 save percentage on the year –over 2 points lower than Berra’s.

But this post is more than just about numbers, it’s about who the Colorado Avalanche should trust to take them to the postseason. We all know that Varlamov has had an incredibly inconsistent year and has single handedly cost the Avs a couple of games. At the same time he has shown flashes of brilliance and won the Avs games they had no business being in.

And part of that is being a goaltender — no goalie can stand on his head for an entire 82 game season. But at the professional level you expect your goalie to have an “off night” maybe a couple times a season. It seems like every third game Varly falls into that category.

This shows in Varlamov’s low danger shots save percentage where he is making only 96.56% of saves. And remember, those are only bad angle, far out shots. Most goaltenders save percentage in that category is around 98% with a couple touching 99%.

At the same time, Varlamov has been the worst of the Avalanche goalies in the most dangerous scoring areas with just an 83.59%. Again, this is only shots that have come from the slot or low slot. Consider this — Reto Berra’s save percentage from that area is a staggering 92.42% (where he is leading the league). The only place Varlamov outplays the other Avalanche goalies is in the medium danger areas where he leads both Berra and Pickard by 3 points. But that’s not enough to compensate for his abysmal low danger save percentage.

Part of the problem is he cheats off the post. Goalies are never supposed to  give up short side goals. If a player is going to score from a bad angle, you make him shoot it all the way across your body. Instead Varlomov leaves the short side open because he thinks there’s going to be a cross-ice pass and he wants to make the spectacular save on a tap in.

Instead, we get goals like this:

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Yet for now, it looks as if Varly will be the goalie to pull the Avs into (or keep the Avs out of) the playoffs. Head coach Patrick Roy still trusts him for his carrying of the team to a Central Division championship three years ago, even though all evidence since has pointed to that being an anomaly.

But with the important games coming up Varlamov is the only goaltender with true big game experience. He rose to prominence as a rookie goaltender in the 2009 playoffs where he acquired two shutouts in his inaugural series. In addition he played for the Russian Sochi team and played well for the Avalanche in their last playoff appearance.

So in his past, at least, Varly has shown himself to be a clutch goaltender. Yet the Avs fan base’s faith in him has largely disintegrated: his numbers this season for save percentage sit just at the league average (while both other Colorado Avalanche goaltenders are above that), and he also has the lowest adjusted save percentage out of any of the Avalanche goalies.

Next: Reto Berra