Erik Johnson-Francois Beauchemin: Predictions

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Sep 22, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) passes the puck defended by Colorado Avalanche center Brad Malone (42) during the first period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Avalanche have always been an offense-first team. That profile has brought them under criticism, especially with the advent of the fancy stats.

Well, I won’t say the Avalanche are no longer an offense-based team. However, they have definitely paid some attention to the blueline. Among other acquisitions, they signed defenseman Francois Beauchemin, formerly of the Anaheim Ducks. Francois Beauchemin is projected to be matched with Erik Johnson on the top pairing.

The Colorado Avalanche had one of the worst shots-against ratios in the NHL last season. Head coach Patrick Roy has stated limiting shots against still isn’t the defense’s top priority — he believes more in limiting opponents’ scoring chances.

Johnson and Beauchemin should see the top minutes against the top lines. That means limiting the scoring chances from the best shooters in the NHL will likely fall under their purview. Both players were in that role last year. Let’s see how they might do this year now that they’re bound to be playing together.

Next: Johnson

Erik Johnson

Dec 23, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson (6) during the game against the St. Louis Blues at Pepsi Center. The Avalanche won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

2014-15 Stats:

GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-
47	12	11	23	33	2

Last Season:

Erik Johnson looked primed to have a career year last season until knee surgery cut his season short. Johnson went into last summer with the missive from the coaching staff that they wanted him to take on a greater role with the team. He trained accordingly, and that’s exactly what he was doing. He led the team in ice time, 24:40 minutes average per game.

Johnson scored his 12 goals during a time when no one was scoring goals on the Colorado Avalanche. He even recorded his first multi-goal night against his old team, the St. Louis Blues. Johnson’s +2 rating may seem modest, but you have to remember he earned it when almost every other player was in the minus category.

Johnson’s fancy stats bear out, too:

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson has a positive impact, according to Corsi stats.

Photo credit: Puckalytics

Erik Johnson was the Colorado Avalanche’s only All Star nominee. Before his surgery took him out, he was also in the running for the Norris Trophy.

Questions for the Upcoming Season:

Questions about Erik Johnson always center on whether he’s a true #1 defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche. Personally, I think the All Star nomination and Norris Trophy talk, along with both his regular and advanced stats, answer that question. However, among a certain contingent, this question always comes up.

For me, the more significant question is whether he’ll find the right chemistry with Francois Beauchemin. Johnson is a powerful skater, faster than the other defensemen (yes, including Tyson Barrie), so he relies on positioning for his defense. Will he and Beauchemin get accustomed to each other’s positioning?

Predictions:

Erik Johnson is primed to blow his career numbers out of the water. That is my main prediction for him.

However, how his defensive play works out all comes down to that chemistry. I’m certain he and Francois Beauchemin will spend the training camp and preseason working on just that. Johnson is the Avalanche’s cornerstone on defense — it’ll be up to Beauchemin to adapt to his style.

Next: Beauchemin

Francois Beauchemin

Apr 20, 2015; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) stretches prior to the game against the Winnipeg Jets in game three of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

2014-15 Stats:

GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-
64	11	12	23	48	17

Last Season:

Francois Beauchemin had a stellar year with the Anaheim Ducks last season. He’s not known for being an offensive defenseman, yet he earned 26 points in just 64 games. Beauchemin led the Ducks in ice time, with an average 22:44 minutes in the regular season and 25:24 in the playoffs. He was second on the team for blocked shots with 107 and hits with 105.

Beauchemin, besides displaying a solid +17 rating, did well in terms of fancy stats as well. According to the Anaheim Ducks website, his total shooting percentage and save percentage while in the ice (PDO) was 101.2, which is positive. He also earned a 50.1 Corsi for percentage.

Questions for the Upcoming Season:

When a player is 35 years old, the question is always about his age. Last season was a career year for Francois Beauchemin, and he shows no indication of slowing down. However, there’s no question he’s on the downward curve of his career. Have the Avalanche signed yet another aging defenseman who will fail to produce?

The main question for me is whether Beauchemin is going to find chemistry with proposed defensive partner Erik Johnson.

Predictions:

It’s hard to say if Beauchemin will have another career season concerning points. Paired with Erik Johnson, he’s going to be expected to play stay-at-home defense when EJ pinches in.

Concerning the question of chemistry, Ducks defenseman Hampus Lindholm spent a lot of time skating with Beauchemin last season. Lindholm is a big two-way defenseman similar to Johnson in some respects. I foresee the veteran Beauchemin adapting to Johnson’s style.

Next: Overall

Overall Predictions

I think this pairing will be the deciding factor in shoring up the Colorado Avalanche’s defense. Like I said before, they are projected to get the top minutes against the top lines.

Both players individually have shown themselves to be the equal to this task. Now it’s a matter of the pair working together. I’ve got to say, this is one storyline I’m going to be watching closely starting already with training camp.

Can Erik Johnson limit scoring chances while creating his own? Yes. Can Francois Beauchemin? Yes. Can the pair work as a force to do that together? Everything points to yes.

What do you think of the Johnson-Beauchemin pairing, Avs Nation?

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Next: Predictions for the Avs Soderberg Line

Next: Predictions for the Avs Mitchell Line

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