Matt Duchene Can Learn from Tyler Seguin
Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin has 15 more goals and 25 more points total than Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene. More than double the goals — is Seguin that much better than Duchene?
No, he is not. The big difference is that Tyler Seguin has 204 shots on net to Matt Duchene’s 121. Seguin takes an average of 4.1 shots per game. Duchene? He takes and average of 2.42.
Seguin has never gone a game without recording at least one shot on net. Duchene has gone three games without recording a shot.
Now this is a simple statistic. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are dead even in the standings with 53 points each at the time of writing, though Dallas has a game in hand. Hockey is a team game, and one player isn’t going to make or break the team’s success all by himself.
However, Duchene is third on the team for scoring, and we’re all surprised by that. He led the team last year even after missing 11 games due to injury. He’s only behind team leader Alex Tanguay by three points.
Seguin, with his high goals totals, leads the team by a margin of 12 goals and 11 points. He also leads the team in shots on goal. Duchene is third for shots on net, behind both Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog.
Two things are interesting about the points for the Colorado Avalanche. The players who have the highest points totals are not the players with the highest shots totals. Rather, they lead the team for best shooting percentage. Iginla makes 15% of the shots he takes. Tanguay makes 21%.
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Iginla and Tanguay are also two of the most veteran NHLers on the Avalanche. And Tanguay leads the league for shooting percentage — and not for the first time in his career. In other words, neither of these players is typical of the Avalanche core.
Now, Duchene regularly posts an average 10.6% for shooting. He’s gone higher, and we’ll talk about that in a minute. However, Seguin has taken 83 more shots on net than Duchene. Imagine if Duchene had taken those shots. He could potentially have eight more goals than he does now.
Now, considering that Dallas has played one fewer game than Colorado, let’s consider game-by stats. If Duchene was taking Seguin’s 4.1 shots per game, he’d have 205. Those couple of extra shots would almost certainly mean he’d have nine goals more.
All players have to have a certain level of confidence to perform their best, of course. However, Duchene is one of those players for whom confidence is especially important. In short, he’s openly said he has a tendency to get into his own head.
Imagine if Duchene were making more goals. His shooting percentage could go up as his confidence increased. It’s gone as high as 14%. He could have as many as 28 goals on the season — same as Seguin.
Now, again, Duchene is only one of 12 forwards, even just one of six top forwards. However, the Colorado Avalanche have lost a stupid 15 of their 50 games by just one goal. If Duchene had scored his extra goal in some of those games, though….
Duchene is also known for being a master playmaker, more so than Seguin, who’s a pure goal scorer. 58% of Duchene’s points come from setting up others, whereas Seguin is dead even in that statistic.
Maybe shooting more would hinder Duchene’s ability to make plays for others. However, he’s on a line with those veterans, those guys who find the back of the net with a sniper’s precision. It’s doubtful their totals would be negatively impacted by Duchene. More likely they’d have a few more assists to their names.
And maybe a few more goals from rebounds.
So, the lesson Matt Duchene could learn from Tyler Seguin is a simple one — shoot the puck more.