Semyon Varlamov Will Lead the Avalanche To The Playoffs

As of today, the Colorado Avalanche are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Three points is the precise gap between the Avs and the closest wild-card qualifier they are trying to catch.

As I gaze over the statistical data pertaining to the Avalanche this season, the mathematical part of my brain screams that the playoffs aren’t only improbable, but perhaps impossible. Only the Buffalo Sabres concede more shots than the 34.3 the Avalanche allow on average per night.

The inability of the Avalanche to limit their opponent’s shot totals, has been a key contributing factor to the second-from-worst possession stats the Avs possess in the league this year. The eye test supports those stats, as the Avalanche often have trouble clearing their defensive zone, and making clean passes and decisions to navigate the neutral zone.

Couple the defensive and possession woes, with the fact that the Avalanche are in the bottom third of the NHL in scoring, with 2.52 goals-per-game on average, and it’s easy to see why a betting man wouldn’t put a dime on this team’s playoff chances.

Varlamov is the great equalizer. He gives this team an even playing ground, if not more, every single night, no matter what the shot totals end up at

Yet, for some reason I still have an odd feeling of confidence and optimism about the Avalanche, that defies logic. At first, I thought it was just my burgundy tinted glasses, that will always love and support this team. But I have realized that this isn’t the full truth. There is a reason every Avs’ fan can confidently don burgundy goggles, and that reason is Semyon Varlamov. The Russian netminder is what allows the Colorado Avalanche to defy logic.

If this season has shown me one thing, it is that Semyon Varlamov deserved to take home the Hart Trophy last season.

Sure, Sidney Crosby’s season was impressive statistically, with 36 goals and 104 points. Based on his career accomplishments, and role as the golden-boy of the NHL for several years, I’m not overly upset that he took home the trophy.

I will also argue all day, that Crosby wasn’t more important to the Penguins than Varlamov was to the Avalanche. In that sense, Varly should have been the MVP.

Last season, the Avalanche were outshot more often than not, by an average count of 32.7-29.5. The Avalanche were still able to rack up the points, en route to a Central Division crown, thanks to their 35-7-4 record when being outshot. This NHL’s best mark is ridiculous, and is glowing proof of the impact Varlamov had on the Avalanche.

Jan 6, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Colorado Avalanche goalie Semyon Varlamov (1) celebrates with teammates a win against the Chicago Blackhawks at the end of an NHL game at United Center. The Avalanche won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Varlamov stopped an astounding NHL-high 2013 shots over the course of the 2013-14 season, and led the league with 41 wins against only 16 losses and 6 Bettman games. His 2.41 goals against average doesn’t jump out, but his 0.927 save percentage certainly does, especially considering the volume of rubber that came his way every, single night.

The Avalanche won the Central Division on the back of Varlamov, and with a league-average replacement they may have struggled to even make the playoffs. Drop Varly’s save percentage to the league average, 0.914, and he would have allowed an additional 26 goals over the course of the season, which would have nearly erased the entire +30 goal differential the Avs finished the season with. 26 additional goals against would have also chipped away at the Avs’ NHL leading 28-4-8 record in one-goal games last year.

Varly’s stellar stats are made much more impressive by his work load, and the fact that he was relied on to save the day in so many high pressure situations. The Avalanche earned their stripes in winning close games, and the formula they used was to get a lead, and then open the floodgates on Varlamov. His ability to make that formula a success is remarkable to me. With as many skaters as Varly robbed last season, the greatest robbery was the fact that he didn’t win a major NHL award.

The Avalanche organization took home some nice hardware for their season, but it’s a shame that Varlamov didn’t get any of it, because nobody on the team was as responsible for their success as Varly.

Roy gave a breath of fresh air to the team, and his aggressive approach when it came to pulling the goaltender ignited some exciting moments in the team, and revolutionized the NHL. However, the Avalanche had some system issues that are being exposed this year, that Varly covered up.

Ryan O’Reilly and Nathan MacKinnon both had impact seasons, but their awards were only won because they both fit into a very specific niche.

Every flukey statistic surrounding the Avalanche last season can be explained by the “One Who Defies Logic.” When Varlamov is on his game, he almost singlehandedly flips the Avalanche from a lottery team, to a team that can compete for a division title.

Which brings us to this season.

The Avalanche aren’t replicating the ‘magic’ of last season. At least not yet. The Avalanche are playing better hockey of late, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that their recent surge coincides with a healthy Varlamov between the pipes.

No game better demonstrated signature-Varly than his 54-save shutout of the Chicago Blackhawks a fortnight ago. The Avalanche didn’t have much business winning that game, yet Varly and the Avs strolled out of United Center with a victory.

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I think this is a foreshadowing of things to come for the Avalanche. I get the feeling that Varlamov is going to show the NHL why he is a premier goalie, and carry the Avalanche on his back to a playoff birth. Varlamov is the backbone of the Avalanche, and when he is humming, the energy and confidence seem to resonate from his vertebrae throughout the entire team.

In the past two weeks, Varly has seen his save-percentage jump from 0.911 to 0.922. He’s heating up, healthy, and primed to play his best hockey over the final three months of the season.

If young stars Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly can start to find their scoring touch, the Avalanche will be one of the more dangerous teams in the league down the stretch. The Avs have had ebbs and flows to their possession game, but Varlamov is the great equalizer. He gives this team an even playing ground, if not more, every single night, no matter what the shot totals end up at. Varlamov defies logic. Which is why, if you’re a betting man, you should put a few dimes on the Avalanche.

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