Colorado Avalanche: Patrick Wiercioch Might be a Steal

New Colorado Avalanche defenseman Patrick Wiercioch is the poster child for the analytics vs. eye test debate — and he may just be a steal for the team.

When the Colorado Avalanche first signed defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, my first response was, “Well, Joe Sakic said the Avs weren’t going to be big buyers on free agency day.” (My second response was “How do you say that guy’s name?”)

Since then, I did a little research on the player. Wiercicoch can produce offensive numbers, and he’s mobile. However, he can be inconsistent.

He’s also got really good size — 6-foot-5, 202 pounds — which makes him a natural for the Colorado Avalanche. Indeed, I presumed that’s why Colorado wanted him — they do like their defensemen big. However, now I’m not so sure. It could be that the Avs chose Wiercioch because he looks good on paper.

By now you probably know I’m not an analytics person — if not, check out this post:

Related Story: Hockey is not Baseball

It’s not that I don’t think analytics provide useful information, it’s that I think they’re ONE tool in a complex game.

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Both Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy have gone on record as saying they don’t rely heavily on advanced stats to inform their decision making. However, that’s not to say they ignore them completely, and the signing of Patrick Weiercioch may be an indicator.

Because apparently Wiercioch is an excellent player from an analytics point of view. Indeed, he appears to be one of the poster children for the old “analytics vs. eye test debate.”

The 25-year-old defenseman has spent his entire career prior to this playing for the Ottawa Senators. He spent a fair amount of time riding the pine because, according to Ottawa GM Bryan Murray, he’s not quick enough on his feet and needs to work on his intensity. (That second part sounds like an Avs thing, but not the first.)

However, Murray also admitted the following:

“Analytically, I’m not sure. I look at the numbers too. I think they have him as our best defenseman on the team almost.”

You’ll remember, this is a team that has two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson on the blueline. Wiercioch has not spent much if any time paired with Karlsson. Yet analytically, Wiercioch is almost as good as, if not better than, Karlsson.

I’m not going to attempt to explain the analytics side of his game — Travis Yost of TSN does an excellent job doing so. (Follow the above link.) However, Yost creates a list based on Wiercioch’s advanced stats that puts him between Jake Muzzin and Brent Seabrook — a little better than the latter, actually. According to the list, he’s a sight better than Niklas Hjalmarsson and current Norris Trophy winner Drew Doughty.

Crazy cakes, right? If you’re a person who worships at the alter of advanced stats, you should be dancing in the streets about the Colorado Avalanche signing Patrick Wiercioch. Apparently he’s an analytics stud, and he’s the cheapest defenseman on the Avs at $800,000. That’s why he might be a steal for the team.

I’d also like to point out that signing Wiercioch might mean people who like to beat up on Sakic and Roy for not relying on advanced stats need to back off. Patrick Wiercioch fails the eye test — he’s a mite slow and unwieldy. Plus inconsistent. Yet he was the first player Colorado signed in free agency.

They did so cheaply, though.

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So, advanced stats have their place — as a single tool in an entire toolbox of information. You can rely on them, but you should not bet the farm on them. A sheep or two, though — apparently Roy and Sakic were willing to bet that much to see if Patrick Wiercioch could get past his visible limitations to live up to his fancy stats.

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