Colorado Avalanche Roundtable on 2017 NHL Draft: #4 Pick
The Colorado Avalanche have seven picks in the 2017 NHL Draft, including the fourth-overall. MHS writers past and present weigh in on who they think the team picks in the first round.
The Expansion Draft is in full swing for the Colorado Avalanche. Of course for the Avs, all that really means is Las Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee is looking over their list of unprotected players to choose one.
Meanwhile, Avalanche team personnel are going over the 2017 NHL Draft class to see who they’re going to pick. The first round of the draft takes place on June 23 at 4:00 pm MT, coverage on NBC Sports Network. Coverage of the other six rounds begins at 7 am MT on Saturday, June 24, also on NBC Sports Network.
The Colorado Avalanche have the following picks:
#4
#32
#94
#114
#125
#156
#187
They don’t have a third round pick because they traded it to New Jersey for defenseman Eric Gelinas. They have an additional fourth round pick which they acquired in the trade that took Nick Holden to the New York Rangers.
The first round pick, as we well know by now, is the #4 selection. Colorado lost the Draft Lottery and so dropped all the way to that pick.
In any case, there are some very good players who will be available at fourth-overall. Indeed, the players who go between #3 to about #10 are all going to be about the same level of player. So it mostly depends on what each team decides it needs.
Here at Mile High Stilcking, we’ve had a lot of draft coverage. As we near the big moment itself, though, some MHS writers past and present got together (virtually) to debate who the Avs should take with their #4 pick.
You’ll be surprised to know we did not come to a consensus.
Who do you want the Avs to pick 4th-overall?
The first question I asked was who each writer wanted for the Colorado Avalanche to select fourth-overall.
No surprise, fellow editor Ross Sellers is still on his Nick Suzuki kick:
The more I think about it, the more I want the Colorado Avalanche to go off the board a bit and pick Nick Suzuki. For more on that pick, check out my post on the kid. To me, it’s baffling that he is not ranked in the top five of this year’s draft. He’s still just 17 years old, scored more goals than Owen Tippett, led all first year draft eligible players in points in the OHL and has some serious defensive skills to boot. If they do this, they can still make that trade for the Carolina Hurricanes’ No. 12 pick, and go after Cal Foote.
Current staff writer Mark Kinz went a more traditional route — defense:
If Miro Heiskanen is still available by some miracle, I would love for the Avs to draft him. As much as it pains me to say it, Erik Johnson is pushing 30, and could be on his way out if indeed the Avs are moving towards a fully-fledged youth movement. If that’s the case, they’ll need to find another top defenseman to fill the gap left by EJ, and a confident blueliner like Heiskanen could be that guy.
Former MHS writer Daniel Henderson concurs:
It hurts me a bit to choose Heiskanen since I got pretty attached to one of the other players, however if Heiskanen slips past Dallas I think it would be extremely foolish to pick anyone else.
Heiskanen is a mobile defenseman who moves the puck effectively and has great hockey sense.
The biggest criticism against him is that he’s a bit on the smaller size for a top pairing guy as he’s listed as only 5’11”. However, he doesn’t play like he’s 5’11” and his stock as been skyrocketing. Heiskanen had a massive U18s where he flat out dominated other top ranked players. He scored 12 points in 7 games and according to scouts was by far the most noticeable player on the ice.
Some might say that its a bad idea to place so much weight on a single tournament, which I would usually agree with, but in this case its one of the rare times we’ve got to see him against players his own age. Over the regular season he plays in Finland’s top league (Liiga) where he’s been playing top pairing minutes against men. This is the same league that produced Laine, Puljujarvi and Rantanen.
Just for reference, Laine scored 33 points in 46 games, Puljujarvi scored 28 points in 50 games and Rantanen scored 28 points in 56 games in their respective draft years. Heiskanen scored 10 points in 37 games as a defenseman who doesn’t even play on the top powerplay unit. Those are extremely encouraging numbers for a 17 year old in a professional league and there’s good reason to believe that he’ll be a top pairing defenseman in the NHL.
Another former MHS writer, Joe Faul, went in a different direction:
I want the Avs to take Casey Mittelstadt. I think that he will be electric on the power play and he is already very strong when it comes to the transition game. He has been very successful at the collegiate level as well as at USHL.
For me, I haven’t moved from my conviction that the Colorado Avalanche should select forward Gabriel Vilardi if he’s still available at #4. It’s true he’s known for being the speediest player on the ice, but he’s a big, mobile two-way player with a high ceiling. As I pointed out in my blueprint post, the Avs desperately need a good two-way player.
What’s more, Vilardi is one of the players who’s closest to being NHL-ready. I could see him making the roster out of training camp, or at least at some point next season. It would be nice to get help from Colorado’s high pick sooner rather than later.
Who do you think the Avs WILL pick 4th-overall?
For the second question, I asked the writers to surmise who they thought the Colorado Avalanche actually would pick, not just who they wanted the team to pick.
Ross thought they would go defense:
Unfortunately, I don’t believe the Avs will see the same value in Nick Suzuki that I see, and that’s fine. I believe that they will pick Miro Heiskanen, but only if the Dallas Stars don’t poach him. I don’t think the Stars will be able to look beyond Gabe Vilardi or Casey Mittelstadt; so, Heiskanen should still be there, and he’d be a great defensive pick for the Avs.
If they do this, they can still make that trade with the ‘Canes for their No. 12 pick, and draft Nick Suzuki, who might still be there by then. You guys catching my theme yet? Suzuki should be who the Avs target.
Joey has a different idea:
Based on Sakic’s past draft history, I believe the Avs will take Mittelstadt.
Mark brought up another player:
I feel like they’ll end up drafting Owen Tippett. One thing that’s remained consistent about Sakic’s drafting is his penchant for taking forwards in the first round, despite the team’s obvious need for defensive upgrades. This has worked out for the most part (Jost, MacKinnon,Rantanen), but I think the team’s need for a top-6 winger can be filled in other ways.
However, if Heiskanen isn’t available, Tippett is a solid shooter with good speed, which could make him the perfect right wing for Duchene, assuming Dutchy is still around. His defensive game, however, is questionable, so I seriously hope Heiskanen is available.
Daniel agrees with Mark:
I think the Avs will draft Tippett because there’s a good chance that Dallas takes Heiskanen before they have a chance to draft him. However, I think there’s also a good possibility that Dallas takes Vilardi, in which case I think the Avs will take Heiskanen, but for simplicity’s sake, lets assume that Heiskanen is off the board.
I’ve been on the Tippett train all year so I’m not disappointed with this outcome at all. I’ve done quite a bit of research and watched a decent amount of video of him, and every time I see him play he reminds me of Phil Kessel. That’s encouraging because Pittsburgh is exactly the style of play Colorado would like to emulate in the future.
Tippett was born to play that style of game, his greatest assets are his elite speed and his lethal wrist shot. He’s a shoot-first, goal scoring machine which Colorado is in desperate need of. He has the added bonus of being a winger, which happens to be one of Colorado’s weakest positions.
Tippett scored 75 points, 62 of which were primary and had a reasonable shooting percentage of 15.49%. He produces on the power play, but isn’t exclusively reliant upon it. If the Avs draft Tippett at #4, it’s a fantastic start to their draft.
I agree with Daniel and Mark. Owen Tippet is exactly in the Colorado Avalanche mold — speedy and skilled with a sniper’s shot. Colorado is committed to choosing best available, so I think they might go Vilardi regardless, but I think they select Tippett if Vilardi is gone. And that’s just fine for the team.
Who will it piss you off if the Avs pick him 4th-overall?
For the third question, I asked the writers who they thought the Colorado Avalanche might choose against better advice.
Funnily enough, Ross disagreed with Mark, Daniel and me:
I would be pretty upset if the Avs drafted Owen Tippett at No. 4 overall. I just don’t think he is the type of player they should be targeting. His game is a bit one-dimensional, he’s not the best skater and he’s been criticized for his inability to play a strong defensive game. He is not the type of player the Avs need to be drafting considering the direction they want to take this team.
I have faith that Joe Sakic will go for a player like Mittelstadt or Vilardi over Tippett, but if he doesn’t, I might rage ever so slightly.
Mark had his own ideas:
Cal Foote. Yes, he’s Adam Foote’s kid, and he’s a good player, but he’s not a top-5 pick. If Sakic lets nostalgia get the better of him, I will be an incumbent ball of fury.
Daniel picked up on two of my favorites from this draft — Gabe Vilardi and Eeli Tolvanen:
3) Casey Mittelstadt (C), Gabriel Vilardi (C) or Eeli Tolvanen (RW)
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I couldn’t limit myself to just one player here, because unlike past drafts, the players haven’t really distinguished themselves from one another. That’s not to say they’re bad (they’re not), rather that the talent levels are much closer than previous years and that there are more candidates to be chosen at #4 than usual.
Realistically, I think only Mittelstadt or Vilardi are in danger of being picked in #4 spot. Tolvanen is more likely to be drafted in the 7 – 14 range. Personally, I think Tolvanen just flat out isn’t as good as the some of the other players who will be available, which is why I would be pretty pissed if Colorado drafted him at #4. He would be a candidate to draft if the Avs decided to trade down.
Vilardi and Mittelstadt on the other hand have made legitimate cases to be drafted at #4.
Vilardi isn’t a bad player by any means. As I said previously I think there’s a decent chance that Dallas takes him at #3 since they need centres just as much if not more than defensemen. The reason I would be upset if the Avs drafted him is because he doesn’t fit their team identity.
Throughout the organization we’ve heard that the Avs want to be a team that plays with pace. In order to do that, you need some really good skaters on the roster. That’s just not who Vilardi is, he’s a lethargic skater who is more suited to play an East – West style of game rather than North – South. An additional concern is that he shot at 19.33% which is pretty high, but I don’t think he’ll be an effective player at the NHL level. He’d just be miscast in Colorado.
Mittelstadt is an interesting player, and I’ve read some scouting reports that say he’s the best player in the draft, and that includes Nolan Patrick. I haven’t watched a ton of video on him, but scouts rave about his dynamic playmaking and puckhandling abilities.
What I found concerning about him is that he has some big red flags when you crunch the stats. Mittelstadt shot at 21.67% this past season, which is very high. It could be argued that he’s that good, but I’m of the opinion that its more likely to be unsustainable. His shooting percentage will likely regress closer to the 15% range in junior.
Even more concerning is that a whopping 60% of his points came on the power play, suggesting that he might be reliant upon it. The good news is that almost all of his points were primary points, but for me, that doesn’t outweigh the risks associated with drafting him at #4.
Joey had a unique take on the question:
It wouldn’t piss me off if Sakic took Glass, Tolvanen, Mittelstadt or Heiskanen at 4th but it would piss me off if Sakic traded up.
Former staff writer Will Radke chose to weigh in only on this one question:
I see Casey Mittelstadt play quite a bit as I coach at an adjacent organization. And while Casey is obviously a phenomenal player, I don’t think he cracks the top 10 or maybe even 15 in most years’ drafts. The fact that he’s even in these talks is enough for me to be somewhat disinterested in the draft.
For myself, what will anger me more than anything is if the Colorado Avalanche try to get cute and choose a player they think is the diamond in the rough no one else values. Number four isn’t the result we wanted from the Draft Lottery, but it’s still a pretty high pick. I don’t want them to go all Conner Bleackley with it. (No offense, I’m sure he’s lovely, but he was a bust of a first rounder three years ago.)
To that end, I think it would be a mistake to choose the current darling defenseman, Cale Makar. When I scouted him, he reminded me of a glorified Tyson Barrie. We already have Tyson Barrie — we don’t need 2.0. Yes, Makar could be the next Erik Karlsson. Truthfully, though, he’s small and one-dimensional — he could just be another first-round bust.
I’d like to see the Avalanche play it safe with the fourth-overall. But I also don’t want them to choose Casey Mittelstadt. I feel bad for the kid that he couldn’t do a single pull up and only one bench press — that had to be embarrassing. But, sheesh, you know the Combine is coming up — why don’t your train for it? To my mind, that speaks to his conditioning and his overall commitment to excellence.
What’s another scenario you could see happening for the 4th-overall pick?
The fourth-overall is such an adaptable draft position that I could foresee a lot of different scenarios. Turns out so could the writers:
Ross had one option:
I think it’s extremely unlikely, but I suppose the only other scenario I could see is obviously a trade. I think this trade again involves the Carolina Hurricanes, and the Avs would be getting a defenseman they think is absolutely worth the No. 4 pick — Jaccob Slavin — AND Matt Duchene. Both teams would certainly swap picks, and the ‘Canes would likely have to give up some other prospect as well.
However, the Avs get their top-pairing left-handed defenseman (Slavin) the ‘Canes get their No. 1 center (Duchene), and the Avs also still get to draft an offensive catalyst at No. 12 overall in Nick Suzuki. This draft is basically about Suzuki or bust for me, and he should be a player Joe Sakic is considering with every ounce of his thought process.
Mark also though a trade could be on the horizon:
Trading down in the draft to take Cal Foote while acquiring additional assets. This could involve moving Matt Duchene to a cup contender as well, in exchange for a lower pick and a bevy of promising young prospects.
Daniel just thought the Avs might get creative in who they chose:
Timothy Liljegren (D) & Cody Glass (C)
A lot of people have written off Liljegren as this year’s Chychrun, but don’t be so surprised if the Avs opt to take him at #4 if Heiskanen is gone. He was out with mono for a lot of the season which took a toll on his draft stock, but he’s got a lot going for him and while his defensive game needs to improve, he could pay big dividends to the team that takes a chance on him.
Glass is just an all around solid player. He’s not flashy a la Hischier, but its really hard to argue with the numbers he put up this season. He had 95 points, 68 of which were primary and plays a defensively responsible game. Even though he’s a centre, which the Avs have in abundance, Glass would be a good fit in Colorado as he needs at least 2 more years before he’ll break into the NHL.
Joey Faul doesn’t think so:
Like the Denver Broncos draft this year, I think that the Avs draft will be very straight forward and there won’t be any surprises.
I have a leg-up on the guys here because I’m writing this after listening to Avalanche scout Alan Hepple’s podcast. He has, indeed, confirmed that the team is open to trading the fourth-overall pick. If Colorado makes a draft-day trade, I think the fourth-overall could be a key component.
It’s still possible to use that fourth-overall to gather more draft picks. Hepple mentioned more than once the importance of Colorado’s second-round draft pick, #32. It could be the Colorado Avalanche intends to use this draft to fill the depth coffers. Maybe they’d trade down and just add another second-rounder. I don’t think they’d trade too far down, though.
Next: 2017 Mock Draft for the Avs, All 7 Rounds
I don’t know about you, Avs Nation, but I’m excited by the 2017 NHL Draft. I know it’s not a stellar year. I know the Colorado Avalanche got lotteried out of the top-three picks. However, I think this draft will be very informational about what direction the team is going in — and how committed they are to that direction.