Groundhog Day Predictions for Colorado Avalanche Season
Traditionally, a groudhog pokes his head up out of his hill and predicts the length of the continuing season based on what he sees. Never mind what the whole shadow play signifies, let’s take today to evaluate how much longer the Colorado Avalanche season will last. In other words, will they make the playoffs, play deep into the playoff or, gulp, be done in 10 weeks?
Just the Stats, Ma’am
Unfortunately, looking at the standings, it doesn’t look good for an extended Colorado Avalanche season. The Avalanche are now four points out of a playoff spot because the Calgary Flames refused to lose their game against the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
In between the Avalanche and that last playoff spot are the Dallas Stars and the LA Kings who just met the President of the United States because they’re the reigning Stanley Cup Champions.
The Avalanche have gone 5-2-3 in their last 10 games, meaning they picked up eight of 20 available points. If they keep up that production, they’ll get only 25 more points, putting them at 78 points for the season. Teams don’t make the playoffs with 78 points, especially in the Western Conference.
Prediction: 10 more weeks of the Avalanche season.
Trending Up-ish
The Colorado Avalanche have been steadily improving. Individual key players are producing better in the fourth month than they did in the first. It’s not a dramatic increase — we’re talking an extra point from Duchene, two extra points from Landeskog and an extra goal each from Nathan MacKinnon and Ryan O’Reilly.
However, those points add up to games won, which definitely adds up to points accrued.
Likewise, they really are hunting down those points. In October, they only earned eight of the 22 points available to them, or 36%. In January, however, they earned 17 of the available 26, or 65%. With that kind of production, the Avalanche could earn 41 more points, putting them at 94 points. Teams make the playoffs with 94 points — and a little luck.
Prediction: 10 to 12 more weeks of the Avalanche season.
The Will to Win
All the Colorado Avalanche players have that will to win. Every single player in burgundy and blue is willing to put his body on the line to win. He’s willing to grind away during games. He’s willing to work in the corners and dig deep for more no matter how tired or battered he is.
It’s just up until now, the players didn’t consistently show that will to win. They had off shifts. Heck, they regularly had off periods.
The game against the Nashville Predators should give us hope. If any Colorado Avalanche player took a shift off, I couldn’t tell. Even without maintaining that level of spirit, the Avalanche won 65% of their games in January.
It’s not impossible to think the Avalanche could improve on that, if they maintained their will to win. They’re also playing against division rivals more games than not in February — eight out of 13 times. Even more significantly, they play against conference opponents 10 of those 13 times. Most significantly, seven of those games have the potential to affect which team gets a Wild Card berth.
Seven games — more than half — can determine if the Avalanche make the playoffs. If the Avs played the hockey they played against the Nashville Predators, they can take all of those games. Even if they only take five of those games, as their play has warranted recently… well, the math starts to get complicated, but it looks good for a playoff spot.
Prediction: 12 to 14 more weeks of the Avalanche season.
The Colorado Avalanche like to play heart attack hockey. They have a real knack for putting the pressure on at the last minute and carrying the game in their favor. We can actually take solace from that because it’s pert near the last minute of the season.
In short, the Avalanche have a real chance to make the playoffs.