Is Ryan O’Reilly Really The Forward The Colorado Avalanche Should Trade?

The NHL trade deadline is fast approaching, and will be at the door on March 2nd. With the Colorado Avalanche failing to cement themselves as true contenders this season, after their surprise run to the Central Division crown last year, many have begun to scrutinize the Avs’ current roster.

Oh, the difference a year makes.

Defensive depth, a shutdown partner for Erik Johnson, puck possession, and checking line depth have all been exposed as major holes in this Avalanche squad. Even more troubling has been the lack of scoring provided by the Avalanche’s young core-four of forwards, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Ryan O’Reilly.

This has led to speculation that one of those forwards may be shipped out of Denver, with the hopes of importing a fix for one of those holes on the roster. More specifically, this has led to speculation that Ryan O’Reilly should be traded for a defenseman.

I believe in being thorough, and that the Avalanche should explore all options for improving their team. Often times, the easiest path or the path most traveled doesn’t lead to the destination that is the most worthwhile. Ryan O’Reilly, with his contract hold-outs in the past and uncertain future with the team, presents an easy path. Sometimes, you have to take a chance in order to find that hidden lake or view that has been seen by only a handful of eyes.

Over the past four seasons, including the current campaign, Ryan O’Reilly has averaged 0.69 PPG as compared to Matt Duchene’s 0.76 PPG. The offensive gap hasn’t been as big as many Avalanche fans think it has.

Perhaps the Avalanche would be wiser to trade a youngster other than Ryan O’Reilly. Maybe moving hometown hero Matt Duchene would be the best way to transform the Avalanche into a true contender.

Stick with me folks, and also keep in mind, Matt Duchene is my favorite player on the Avs. I hate the idea of Duchene skating in colors other than burgundy and blue. However, if I am objective, I wonder if the Avalanche can win a Cup with a Duchene/MacKinnon one-two punch at center.

I will start by making the argument, that if Duchene and O’Reilly finish even, or nearly even in point production, that O’Reilly is the much more valuable player.

O’Reilly’s defensive game and ability to kill penalties make him useful and able to contribute to a winning cause, even when he isn’t showing up on the scoresheet. O’Reilly eats up 1:42 of ice time on the PK every night, while Duchene averages a mere 0:13. O’Reilly consistently is among the league leaders in takeaways, and rates out as one of the better defensive top-six forwards in the NHL. O’Reilly’s possession stats are consistently at or near the top of the Avalanche forward group.

Matt Duchene has electrifying talent, speed, and creativity when he has the puck, but for him to be a useful player and maximize his value, he needs to score. I’d say the expectation would be 30 goals and at or near a point-per-game for the Avalanche to be an elite team. MacKinnon is in the same boat, and may even have higher expectations going forward. He needs to become a top-5 player in the league, arguably, if the Avalanche are going to turn into an annual cup contender.

If the Avs commit to Duchene and MacKinnon, they send a clear message that their objective is to score a lot of goals, not necessarily stop them. Both Dutchy and MacK are average sized, and aren’t ever going to be elite defensive centers. At least not like O’Reilly seems destined to become. I think the closest example in the league to this roster composition is the Pittsburgh Penguins with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

The Pens have had a hard time even getting out of the Eastern Conference in recent years, and I doubt they’d have a chance against a Chicago or LA. Crosby is the best player in the game, and some would argue that Malkin has as much or more raw talent than Sidney. The formula did bring a cup to Pittsburgh, but Avalanche fans have to ask themselves, can MacKinnon and Duchene get to the level of Crosby and Malkin? Is this even the optimal way of constructing a roster up the middle in today’s NHL? The good news is we have Max Talbot on board!

The above-mentioned Blackhawks and Kings rosters both have elite two-way centers. Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar are both touted as premier defensive forwards in the game.

In the regular season, Toews and Kopitar are never going to win a scoring title, but once the playoffs start their value skyrockets. There is a reason that the Hawks and Kings have won 4 of the last 5 cups, and it is because they each have a center that can dominate 200 ft of the ice and has a style that is tailor-made for postseason hockey. Well, that and their elite defensive cores.

Ryan O’Reilly isn’t as offensively talented as Toews and Kopitar, but he is mentioned in the same breath as those guys. Most NHL experts agree that O’Reilly’s potential is to be a top-5 two-way forward in the game. Just last season Factor potted 28 goals and put up 64 points. To me, this is more than enough offensive juice considering the other aspects that O’Reilly brings.

If MacKinnon blossoms into a true superstar of the game, I would rather have the other guy be a versatile center who can not only score, but also be used to shut down the other team’s best forwards. Especially in the playoffs. To me, this makes MacKinnon and O’Reilly the ideal duo going forward.

The reason I am writing this article, is as a bit of a response to Mark Kizla’s recent column, and also some chatter I’ve seen on Twitter recently.

These two tweets capture the essence of the view of many Avalanche fans. Ryan O’Reilly is expendable, and Matt Duchene is a golden-boy who is untouchable. Because of Duchene’s admirable off-ice history, I think that many Avalanche fans have an overdone attachment to Matt Duchene. I could include myself in that group.

Like I said above, Duchene is my favorite player. Of the four youngsters on the roster, Duchene’s jersey is the one I own, and I was lucky enough to get Dutchy to scribble his name on the back at training camp this year.

However, I think that Duchene’s on-ice game is generally overvalued by Avalanche fans, and O’Reilly is extremely underrated by most. Duchene has had offensive ups and downs thus far in his career, including a disappointing down year this season. Despite all of the heat that O’Reilly has received this year, he is tied with Dutchy in assists, and only trails by 4 points overall. In fact, O’Reilly’s 9 goals this year are tied with Nathan MacKinnon.

Based on my argument above, that when Dutchy and Factor are near even in points, that O’Reilly holds more value, I’d say that Duchene has perhaps had the more disappointing season.

This has happened before with Dutchy, who endured a miserable 2011-12 season where he only scored 28 points in 58 games. In fact, over the past four seasons including the current campaign, Duchene has only scored 6 points more than O’Reilly. Dutchy has 172 points and O’Reilly has 166. Duchene’s PPG pace is 0.76 and O’Reilly’s is 0.69, and O’Reilly has been the more durable of the two.

The painting that Matt Duchene is the offensive dynamo who carries the Avalanche, and Ryan O’Reilly is merely a defensive forward is much more a watercolor on a fridge than it is a Mona Lisa. In other words, it is a bit of a misconception. Duchene has struggled to produce points consistently, and has had several major scoring slumps thus far in his career.

I think it’s fair to worry that this may haunt Duchene throughout his career. I want Duchene to translate his ludicrous talent to more consistent production, before I call him untouchable.

After all, Duchene is already 24 years old, and is in his 6th NHL season. He is well within his prime, especially considering his skating and agility are his main weapons. A 0.62 PPG pace, as Duchene has this season, just isn’t very good for a supposed franchise cornerstone and offensive center in the prime of his career.

If the Avalanche trade O’Reilly and commit Duchene, it’s the type of stat-line that can’t happen again to Duchene if the Avalanche want to contend.

When Duchene is on his game, he is the better player and has the higher ceiling. He is more talented, and is a highlight real waiting to happen. However, based on the evidence I have, I’m not convinced that Duchene is consistently going to operate at his full potential.

Going forward, I’d honestly rather have a 0.70 PPG Ryan O’Reilly than a 0.75 PPG Matt Duchene who is prone to slumps, which isn’t unreasonable to project with the data on hand. Duchene needs to approach the point-per-game pace to cement himself as the guy we should keep going forward.

Obviously, there are other factors in play. The main being the fact that Factor has had two unpleasant contract negotiations with the club thus far, and his future with the team is uncertain going forward. The other being Duchene’s undeniable raw talent. The type of talent you simply don’t trade away, unless you are 100% certain it will never be realized.

Matt Duchene’s loyalty to the Avalanche may be greater than any forward who has ever donned the burgundy A. He is signed in to a very cap-friendly contract for the next half-decade, and is extremely popular with the fans.

This article isn’t an advocation that the Avalanche should trade Matt Duchene. What it is, is a presentation of facts. For those who are quick to say we should trade O’Reilly, and condemn anyone as “out of their mind” for suggesting a Duchene trade, consider the evidence.

I don’t think it’s ludicrous to suggest that maybe the Avs would be better off trading Duchene. Do I think it will happen, or should happen? Probably not, unless the return package was monumental.

In my opinion, trading O’Reilly the player is nearly as risky as trading Duchene. The Avalanche better be darn certain they are getting a quality package in return. In my mind, the return for O’Reilly needs to be nearly as juicy as one for Duchene would be to get me to pull the trigger.

Ryan O’Reilly has his weaknesses, and he has yet to commit to the franchise. I understand this, and understand that the world of sports is a business. Sometimes business decisions get made. Matt Duchene has his weaknesses too. If the Avalanche trade O’Reilly, the pressure is on Dutchy to elevate his defensive game, and also become the consistent scorer that his talent level suggests he should be.

The Avalanche have some big decisions to make. A trade may be inevitable. For the sake of improvement, I hope the Avalanche consider all options for improving this team. It makes sense to trade Ryan O’Reilly, especially if he will fetch a grand return. However, the Avalanche shouldn’t look for the easy path, but the path that will lead them to a Stanley Cup. This may require a painting with a few more bold strokes.

I still think there is about a 0.0001% chance the Avalanche would trade Matt Duchene, but if they did my brain could grasp the logic of it. Especially if it brought an elite d-man back to Denver. On paper, it’s not as ludicrous a proposition as people are making it out to be. My heart, on the other hand, it may never forgive the Avalanche if they traded my guy!

Next: Analysis of Avs' New Defensive Pairings