Ryan O’Reilly: Finishing the Season with Colorado Avalanche?
The Colorado Avalanche are going to try and make an historic drive to make the playoffs.
The task seems Herculean. Head coach Patrick Roy has posited the team needs 95 points to make the playoffs. With only 22 games left, the team has 63 points. That means the Avalanche need to win 16 of their last 22 games. Difficult, but not mathematically impossible.
With the way the Avalanche have been playing in recent games, the task doesn’t even seem all that improbable. However, that brings us to the O’Reilly Situation.
Hot Young Line
The Avalanche’s hottest players right now are captain Gabriel Landeskog, who’s enjoying a six-game point streak, and Nathan MacKinnon, who just recorded his first NHL hat trick.
Who centers those two suddenly-hot youngsters? Why, it’s every Avs fan’s favorite trade bait, Ryan O’Reilly. He has five points in the last five, with assists on MacKinnon’s hat trick goals (two) and some of Landeskog’s streak of five goals in five games (three).
Chemistry is so fragile in hockey. This line has been hot for at least three games, and you could argue back five games, to the Valentine’s Day win against the Dallas Stars. The Avalanche accrued eight points in those five games — eight desperately-needed points. Eight points that made a chance at an historic run even possible.
Is O’Reilly the centerpiece of that hot line? Well, he is literally the centerman, the player responsible for setting up more than his share of plays. MacKinnon also claimed he “stole” O’Reilly’s goal with his tip-in, #2 for his hat trick three.
The Colorado Avalanche have three more games before the March 2nd NHL Trade Deadline. O’Reilly’s immediate future with the team could very well hinge on the outcome of this week’s games.
Scenario 1: Wins
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All three of the upcoming games are against divisional rivals — the Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild. The Avalanche would have to hop over the Stars and Wild for a playoff berth, and neither team has been helpful by losing a lot recently.
The Avalanche need to win at least two of those games, preferably against the Stars and the Wild. They’d like to win all three, but the need is a definite two.
If the Avalanche win at least two of those games, the run seems a little more possible. If the O’Reilly line continues with its streak, no way Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic pry O’Reilly away. Even if that line falters a bit but the Avs are still winning… well, a once-hot line could get hot again. I still believe Roy and Sakic would be unwilling to risk harming the chemistry.
Scenario 2: Losses
I don’t want to write this, but, of course, it’s possible. The Colorado Avalanche could lose two or even all three of those games. If that happens, they still won’t be mathematically eliminated. However, a perfect streak of all wins to end a season is highly unlikely.
In that case, Roy and Sakic might start entertaining offers from desperate bidders. For instance, the Stars are out their prime scorer, Tyler Seguin. They might be willing to give up a lot for a band-aid scorer for the final push.
Other teams already assured of a playoff berth might also be willing to give up a lot for a two-way center. In that case, Roy and Sakic might decide they’ll get more for O’Reilly at the deadline than during the summer.
The Johnson Factor
I don’t think Roy and Sakic are in a hurry to move O’Reilly because of Erik Johnson.
Ok, I’m well aware Erik Johnson is the Avalanche’s cornerstone defenseman with, therefore, a radically different role on the team. However, Johnson underwent a knee scoping procedure that the team knew would take him out for a minimum of three weeks. (It’s been four.)
Next: Erik Johnson's Knee Surgery
Those were three very crucial weeks. Roy and Sakic knew the loss of Johnson would expose weaknesses in the area of defense. If they already had O’Reilly written off, we might be seeing Tyler Myers in an Avalanche instead of Winnipeg Jets uniform — that trade was mentioned more than casually.
Yet Ryan O’Reilly is still with the team. It doesn’t make sense that the Avalanche would hold onto him when they needed another piece desperately at a crucial time in the season.
Both Roy and Sakic have said their preference is to sign O’Reilly long-term. Thus far, they’re putting their actions where their mouth is.
However, the next week could very well be the deciding factor for OReilly’s future with the team.
Next: Is Ryan O'Reilly Really the Forward the Avs Should Trade?
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